Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Goodale, Ralph
Hunter, Michelle
New Democratic
Moore, Stephen
Wooldridge, George-Richard

Hon. Ralph Goodale

2006 Result:
Ralph Goodale **
Brad Farquhar
Helen Yum
Nigel Taylor

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 24 Seattle Spud
The survival of Ralph Goodale on the otherwise Gritless expanse from Winnepeg to Vancouver, is a sterling example of the personal electoral appeal of a superior candidate.
08 09 22 Calev
I do not think Goodale will loose here but I do believe he will have a fight on his hands but it will take a lot to take this giant down. Now having said that, there are several things working against him one, the Liberal support falling in the prairies (although that might not affect him much) plus a very strong candidate in Hunter with a huge amount of support from the establishment. Seeing as Goodale seems to be the Liberal establishment in Saskatchewan, he wont be getting much help. The final thing that is going to plague Goodale is the Green Shift, I do not see the people of Saskatchewan willingly giving up their new found wealth. If the conservatives along with Wall can convince voters in Wascana that Green Shift will return Saskatchewan to a have not province, that could prove to be a turning point in this riding. Now that is a lot to line up to take him down but I would say that there is a 35-40% chance he will not win, but those are not good odds.
08 09 18 SJ
I can't believe Ralph Goodale will lose this time either, and while he is robustly detested in some circles -- including good Liberal circles -- he's excellent on the doorstep. However -- and for what it's worth I don't think ‘sign polls’ are worth much -- I'm counting probably fewer than a third the number of signs he had last time. I do realize that doesn't mean those votes are lost to him, but it is interesting nonetheless.
08 09 18 Bernard
Ralph Goodale is in trouble. Polling is showing the the Liberals to be about 30% off of their 2006 results in Sask and Man combined. NDP is marginally up. Greens remain a non factor in the region.
The prairie trend is for people that are not voting Liberal to most likely vote Conservative this time. For every one that goes to the NDP, three go to the Conservatives.
Assuming Goodale really is as strong an incumbent as people say he is, that is worth something to keep him in office.
Liberals - 38%
Conservatives - 38%
NDP - 20%
Greens - 4%
Because he has won so big in the past, and so many people think he is unassailable, means that his campaign ‘feels safe’ and people are not worrying, or at least not telling anyone they are worrying.
08 09 15 binriso
Brad Wall the most popular premier since Tommy Douglas, what are you nuts? He’s only been in power for ten months. Theres no way you can tell that yet. Devine was popular at the beginning too, and hes one of the most hated politicians in all of Saskatchewan now because of all the scandals. Romanow won three consecutive majorities too (beating a merger of Sask Reform, Sask PC and most of the Sask Liberals the last time), and Blakeney won three times too for the NDP and I dont think anyone really disliked Calvert, Wall won a lot based on a theme of change since the NDP had held power for 17 years too. (just a note too that the NDP governing from 1990-2007 was clearly miles ahead of the previous PC government and I dare anyone to tell me differently).
Not to mention Goodales got a ton of experience compared to any of the candidates here, name recognition and leadership potential. I just dont see how he can lose. The Liberals will probably hold their 20% or so in Saskatchewan which means itll probably be a bit closer but not a whole lot.
08 09 13 interested
Actually living in Regina I think things are a little different
Goodale is not in cabinet -8
Michelle Hunter, the Conservative candidate has the Sask Party behind her as she is the former president of the Saskatchewan Party. She is extremely close to Premier Brad Wall, the most popular premier in Sask history since Tommy Douslas. Hunter is also wll known locally. The Conservative organization is very strong for the first time in years.
The Provincial NDP government supported Goodale in the past albeit not overtly. They wanted a federal cabinet minister and people like NDP MLA Kevin Yates actively worked for Goodale. They are gone.
This time the federal NDP want Goodale gone. That will kill the Liberals in the prairies once and for all. Their candidate is a well respected university professor, Stephen Moore, who has a the young NDP activists working for him. Regina is an NDP City. the NDP got 15% of the vote in 2006. Goodale will not keep the NDP vote so low this time.
NDP +10
Liberal -10
Saskatchewan is an NDP-Conservative Province. Without NDP support Goodale is done.
08 09 12 binriso
Alright so heres the results from last time in Sask:
CPC 49%
NDP 24%
LIB 22%
GRN 3%
OTH 2%
Yeah so the CPC were leading the Liberals by 27(Twenty Seven!!) points and lost this riding by 22%. Not to mention that RCMP investigation on Goodale. The riding actually pretty much went with the provincewide trend too, or at least somewhat closely. This would be one of the biggest shocks ever if Goodale loses. Plus the Conservatives have seats that they need to defend (Sask Rosetown Biggar and Palliser) from the NDP which could make some nice gains here in Sask.
08 09 12 SaskPhoenix
Even if the NDP does experience a surge in support, it just won't be enough to siphon votes away from Ralph Goodale. Ralph Goodale has been a solid MP for over 15 years, he is practically Wascana itself. Until he retires from politics, ain't a snowball's chance in hell that Wascana will go anything but red. If that DOES happen, I'll switch from Coca Cola red to Pepsi blue.
08 09 12 Andy
Not being from the area I don't want to weigh in too much. That being said if current regional polls are to be believed then this riding is very much in play. There is a reason that both the Tories and NDP have targeted Goodale. I think Goodale still has an advantage but with current momentum continuing this could turn into a tight race, maybe even three ways. To make one further comment, the way things are going it is entirely possible that the liberals will win only one seat west of Ontario, and that is Yukon.
08 09 11 Gone Fishing
A huge lead last electoin would seem insurmountable here but we must examine the entrails a little. Goodale won this riding on the strength of his tenure as a cabinet minister. The man is liked enough among colleagues that some voters would have looked at the possibility of Ralph even becoming the next Liberal leader even though it appeared at the time that Michael Ignatieff was the leader in waiting.
I'm not calling this a conservative lock but I think Ralph's fight is much bigger now that NDP support is gaining, Green vote is growing and Conservative in these parts is not going away.
A few points here, a few there and suddenly this becomes very losable for the grits.
08 09 11 binriso
If the Liberals were to win only one seat west of Ontario this election this would be it. Lets not forget the CPC were at 50% in the province and still lost this one by a very large margin(ie 25-30%). Not to mention the sponsorship scandal, and the fact that Goodale himself was under investigation at the time (but later exhonorated). No chance of him losing unless he kills a baby, or something drastic like that.
08 09 11 Swift
The Conservatives are going to gain votes here, but I think they will fall short of winning the seat. If the Conservatives are not targeting Wascana this time, it will be close enough for them to target next time.
08 09 10 Stevo
This seat certainly isn't a top priority for the Conservatives, but I would think that they'd relish the chance to completely sweep not one, but TWO provinces (and yes, I predict the Tories will take all the other Sask seats, despite NDP hopes). It's tough to gauge just how rock-solid Wascana's loyalty is towards Ralph Goodale. What we CAN gauge is Tory regional support, and currently it is massively high in the Prairies (even for them). Stay tuned for a close race here.
08 09 09 In lights!
Ralph is indeed popular and skilled MP. Even a crazy NEO-CON like myself can admit that. His seat is no question; even pointless to predict. In fact I believe his numbers will improve.
My prediction is this: Ralph is too much of a politician and public servant to waste as an opposition back-bencher, once he is re-elected here he will do one of two things: Either take a stab at the quickly vacated Liberal leadership or shockingly cross the floor to a cabinet position.
08 07 20 John
This riding will stay Liberal. Goodale has been able to hold onto this riding during some of the worst possible times to be a Federal Liberal. The riding is largely urban and provincially votes NDP. The Conservatives will not be winning this seat. If they had nominated an individual with strong roots in the business community that might change but expect Goodale to be re-elected with a decent margin.
08 06 17 JCM
Ralph Goodale has won Wascana for five elections in a row, and is generally well regarded by his constituents. However, the Liberals are now out of office, and Wascana has a history of choosing cabinet ministers. It is curious that among Alberta and Saskatchewan, Wascana is now the only non-Conservative constituency; every other seat in the two provinces is held by the Conservatives.
The Conservatives are flooding Wascana with ten percenters, and have definitely targeted this seat for a win next time. Michelle Hunter, the immediate past President of the Saskatchewan Party, has been nominated to run against Goodale. Goodale will face his stiffest re-election challenge yet this time, more than in 1997 or in 2000. History favours Goodale to win close contests, but the Conservatives are making a herculean effort to win Wascana this time.
08 02 26 A.S.
Hard to believe, given his present unsinkable clout, that Goodale was once a political punchline simply for his leading the hopeless cause of the Sask Liberals. Then again, said clout's a mixed blessing in how it's led to the artificial boosting of federal Grit numbers elsewhere in the province--at the expense of the NDP. And the resulting mutual cancellation has led to non-Wascana Saskatchewan becoming a federal Tory monolith instead. Oh well, at least Goodale himself is safe...
07 06 19 binriso
Of course Ralph is going to win here there’s almost no chance he will lose. Clearly he is one of the heavyweights of the party and no doubt would be an important minister in the next government if the Liberals win.
Im actually going to predict Ralph Goodale(If he runs) will win the next leadership convention for the Liberals if they cannot win the next election or the one after. I mean think about it, He's western which is where the Liberals definitely need to rebuild, very popular and honest and he was cleared of the income trust scandal and the RCMP investigation, somewhat fiscally conservative which plays well out there and very experienced in parliament(He was an MP in 1974-1979 as well as since 1993) and has leadership experience as the leader of the Sask Liberals in the 80s. Pretty much all the tools necessary to win a leadership convention. With Gerard Kennedy not pursuing a seat out west, Ralph gains more credibility as one of the only western heavyweights for the Liberals and someone who can rebuild them in the west. He just needs to learn how to speak better French i guess. And of course he'll win in Wascana in a landslide.
07 04 12 Ancastarian
Goodale's large personal support coupled with Calvert's attacks on Harper should ensure the grits keep this one!
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
Even with the personal scandal over income trusts (of which he has since been cleared of any wrongdoing) and the general disastrous Liberal campaign in 2006, Goodale still got over 50% of the vote. Easy Hold for the Grits.
07 03 31 SaskPhoenix
Ralph Goodale is one of the most popular MPs ever. The income trust scandal in late 2005 did not hurt his re-election chances as it was more of a vote for Ralph Goodale rather than the Liberal Party of Canada. Solid reputation, honest, decent and a man of integrity, Ralph puts down partisan politicians with bad manners and boorish decorum to shame. An easy cakewalk for Ralph Goodale and expect this riding to stay redder than a Coca-Cola pop can on election day.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
If Ralph Goodale could win by a large margin when under the RCMP investigation for the income trust leak, he should easily win this time after being cleared. He is very popular in Saskatchewan and as long as he remains MP this should stay Liberal. Once he retires, though things could change here.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
so long as he keeps running, Goodale will keep winning. he is very popular in this riding, and won the last two elections here with extreme margins, despite the rest of the province going tory blue. Liberal lock.

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