Prediction Changed
10:31 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Calgary Centre
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Independent
Grochowski, Antony Tony
Liberal
Kim, Heesung
New Democratic
Kinch, Tyler
Green
Odd, Natalie
Conservative
Richardson, Lee

Incumbent:
Lee Richardson

2006 Result:
Lee Richardson **
30213
Heesung Kim
10464
Brian Pincott
7227
John N. Johnson
6372
Trevor Grover
250

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 10 binriso
156.34.218.25
Suprisingly no one mentioned the crime blamed on immigrants here, although i admit it wasnt a very big deal, i kinda half-expected people to take a shot at him and say the Liberals would win. But Richardson should win again by 15000 votes or more.
08 02 28 A.S.
99.233.96.153
On paper, the most likely (unless disgruntlement over Rob Anders counts) Tory loss/Liberal win in Calgary, a la Edmonton Centre. *On paper*. And Richardson still tripled the Liberal vote last time; and there isn't nearly the anti-Tory backlash federally as there is provincially, etc. Most likely, yet another case where Grit/NDP/Green is battling it out for second, etc.
07 09 24 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Richardson was a PC MP in 1988, who was defeated by the Reform Party in 1993. He's a former parliamentary secretary to boot. He'd do well as a Liberal, as a Conservative, he will win without a doubt. In 04 he won by a margin of 10,000 votes. in 06, by 20,000. I wont do that bogus math that some do (suggesting in another riding, for example, that because the NDP jumped from 4th ro 3rd, then 3rd to 2nd, that they will win, even though they are more votes then Charlottetown PEI casts behind the winner) but the numbers alone speak volumes for the attidude in ths riding.
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
Look at the votes for the other parties to learn the real story of this riding. Itís not a CPC lock by traditional Alberta standards. In fact, outside of Edmonton, this is the most vulnerable riding for the CPC in the province. A number of provincial ridings which lie inside this federal riding have Liberal MLAís. Yup, thatís right, there are Liberals in Calgary, elected ones too. Ralph Klien was a Liberal in his youth. This riding concentrates the support of not only the Liberals but the NDP and the Greens as well. Joe Clark was able to play on that support, by sucking up all the opposition votes in order to win this riding. If the Liberals ever get to the position to win a number of seats in Alberta, this could be one of them. Had the Liberals been more ready in 1993 this ridingís processor might have went Liberal. If the proper set of events are set into motion, the CPC could lose this riding; however those events are not in motion, nor do they appear, at this time, to be even close to going into motion. Lee Richardson will be re-elected without problem.
07 08 12 binriso
156.34.210.19
One of Greenest cities in Canada (and by that i mean votes for the Green Party in larger than average numbers not the other kind of green). Not that the people here are more environmentally concerned than anywhere else, clearly it is the opposite. I mean come on, this is oil-spewing Alberta. Not to mention the government recently were against emission caps on their oil industry and greenhouse gasses. Of course, in Alberta a Green party vote is still often a protest vote but even still 12% here last time was an amazing result for them.
Not that it really matters here, Richardson will win at least twice as much votes as his closest competitor and will almost certainly be above 50%. The other three parties will be fighting for 2nd.
07 04 18 Stevo
74.122.230.74
Calgary may be the most big-C Conservative city, but anybody who's ever been there can surely attest that it isn't the most small-c conservative city. You're likely to find more socially conservative views and more religiously-observant people in Halifax or Winnipeg than you are here. As in other provinces, the Conservatives are mindful that different types of candidates play well in different constituencies and even though this is Calgary, a Myron Thompson Tory could never win here, the seat that Joe Clark took in 2000. At some point down the road, when the Liberal Party begins to finally look West (its last leadership race demonstrated quite clearly that it is nowhere near this stage), this seat will become a major battleground. Until then, Calgary Centre will remain a majority Conservative win. Anything less than 45% here should be cause for worry in the Conservative camp.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
In any other Canadian city, a riding similiar to this would either out of reach for the Tories or at least vulnerable. However, this is Calgary, which is by far the most conservative city in Canada, so even being in downtown still means a safe conservative seat. Never mind that Lee Richardson is from the PC side of the merger so his views are not as right wing as most Alberta MPs.



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