Prediction Changed
10:39 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Benoit, Leon
Campbell, Adam
Munsey, William
New Democratic
Stone, Ray

Leon Benoit

2006 Result:
Leon Benoit **
Len Legault
Duff Stewart
Brian Rozmahel
Robert Peter Kratchmer
Blaine William Stephan

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 02 16 A.S.
Yeah, Stelmach country, i.e. a more laid-back, Saskish Toryism than what you'll find in Crowfoot or Wild Rose. It may be ReformAllianceConservative heartland, but it sure ain't SocredWildroseAlliance heartland--sure, it may encompass a little of Deb Grey's Beaver River Reform beachhead, but more telling is that in the 1988 general election that preceded her historic byelection, she only reached fourth place/lowest teens. (cf. the 30%ish second-placeness in Crowfoot, Wild Rose, etc) And somehow, it isn't surprising that last time around, the Liberals nearly ran fourth here behind NDP and Green...
08 02 13 binriso
Incredibly safe seat of course for the CPC and the home base for Stelmach, Vegreville is obviously going back CPC by ~35000 votes. It was actually a very competitive seat provincially for a while. Vegreville was won twice by the NDP in the 80s and in 1993 when Ed Stelmach first ran and won narrowly, both the Liberals and NDP got about 30% in the riding. Now thats obviously ancient history, and federally it was never close either, but it will at least show you that Alberta isnt just filled with Tory zombies who never change their votes.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
This is more then ‘just a rural Alberta riding that will go Conservative’
Vegerville in particular is the home of the new premier, Ed Stelmach. It is a very Conservative place in general as well, and this was the riding of former number-two Don Mazenkowski, Mulroney’s western lieutenant. It will go CPC again.
07 03 25 Ancastarian
A rural Alberta riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Conservatives.

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