Prediction Changed
4:25 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cunningham, Bill
Gidora, George
Leung, Ronald
Perry, Doug
New Democratic
Siksay, Bill

Bill Siksay

2006 Result:
Bill Siksay **
Bill Cunningham
George Drazenovic
Ray Power
Timothy George Gidora

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Politics In My Blood
It will be a close one since it has tightened since Svend stepped down but unless Bill is involved in a scandal and still tries to run, this guy is not going to lose.
08 09 23 bza
The last Conservative candidate was not a good chocie and despite the party improving federally, actually lost support in this riding as a result. This time with Ronald Leung, it will be interesting to see if he can make inroads in the Chinese community.
I would still definitely say that Siksay has this race virtually locked up. But the Conservatives could do well with a better candidate this time. Making it a possible two way race between Siksay and Leung. Will be interesting to see who finishes second in this one.
08 09 16 Brian A
I once lived in this riding, granted it was a few years back, and I want to note, for the record, that I still fail to see why in the world it keeps voting NDP. By this point, the memory of Svend Robinson has faded quite a bit and Siksay has managed to hold his own here quite well. For a heavily-Asian, largely built-up riding, even back in 2003 when I lived in it, it sure likes its socialists. Siksay hold. Can't imagine why, though...grumble...grumble
08 09 14
The NDP will likely retain this riding. Contrary to Dr Bear without Prof Ape, however, the NDP are not doing spectacularly well across the country, especially with the Greens nipping at their heels. Even though Burnaby-Douglas has a tradition of consecutively electing NDP MPs, in the last several elections, they only won by the skin of the teeth. It's definitely a three way race. Depending on which supporters shift where (e.g. Liberal votes shift to NDP and Conservative) it is anyone's game.
08 09 13 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Yeah, condos have done wonders for the CPC in Trinity-Spadina, Parkdale-High Park, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Westmount-Ville Marie and Ottawa centre (all rides that I have heard people use the ‘c’ word to claim it'd help the CPC). As for the CPC candidate having ties with SFU, who cares? I got my Ph.D from the University of Windsor, many days at lunch, sitting nearby was Envir Villamizar, a current student (who I knew...not well but I knew him) who ran for the Marxist-Leninist party. Did I vote for him? Hell no! Why is that? Beacuse I didn't share his political views. By the argument given that the CPC candidate has ties with SFU, the SFU students will vote for him is as meaningless as me (and the entire U Windsor student body) voting for the Marx-Len candidate because he was tied to the university I was attending. No, Mr. Siksay will win because he has been an effective, visible MP, because the NDP have a strong tradition in this riding and because the NDP are polling very strongly across the nation.
08 09 12 anonymous
Conservative candidates don't have a history of doing very well in this riding, but I think it might be too early to write Ronald Leung for this election, for two reasons. First, the riding has been shifting demographically, with a large number of condo towers going up along the skytrain line; owners tend to be more conservative than renters. Second, the conservative candidate has a PhD from Simon Fraser University, and retains strong ties to the university; this is likely to swing some of the student vote. Add to this the generally strong performance of the Conservative party in BC in the current electoral campaign, and I think this will be a very interesting three-way race which should be firmly in the ‘too close to call’ column at the moment.
08 09 08 Stephen Walker
I think Bill Siksay will win again. Bill Cunningham can only offer his party's reoccurring promises on Day Care and Health Care. The Conservative candidate is new, I think he'll actually pull some of the Taiwanese Chinese away from the Cunningham campaign. I doubt that he can win.
08 09 04 The Dude Abides
While I'd like to see him out, Siksay has proven to be popular on his own merits and has been able to jump off Svend's coattails. Without any stellar candidates opposing him, there will be little initiative amongst the voters of the riding to vote out the incumbent.
08 02 19 A.S.
Svend didn't always win by ‘small margins’--out of seven runs in Burnaby, he got over 40% four times, and over 10% margins thrice; also, remember that he was working against a sickly federal NDP network from 1993 onward, while pre-1993, there was nothing unseemly or incongrous about ‘big tent’ NDP strength in a seat like this. As for the present, it's interesting to observe how in '04, Bill Siksay benefited from the Svend legacy while Peter Julian was a happy bonus--but in '06, Siksay stagnated while Julian and even Dawn Black jumped ahead. Is that the riding's ‘natural demographics’ finding their own gravity, or is it proof that it is, in fact, New Westminster and not Burnaby that's the true heart of NDP strength around these parts? A little bit of both? Whatever the case, even if Bill Cunningham's polling strength's been a bit of a surprise thus far, it's hard to *really* imagine Siksay going down without a broader localized NDP takedown (including his New Westminsterfied neighbours) taking place...
07 10 11
A very interesting and diverse riding ethnically, socially and politically. NDP Siksay is popular here, and therefore has the advantage to win this riding again.
Liberal Cunningham has tried too many times to win this and lost, and voters may start to get tired of this.
Conservative Ronald Leung is well known to the Chinese public for his radio show. He represents the more social conservative faction of the Conservative party, and this may resonate with Chinese immigrants. However, he is not as well known to the outside community, and this will give Siksay an advantage,
07 10 07 Brian Appel
Actually, Nick, Tommy ran in the riding that is now known as Nanaimo-Cowichan, but I do get your point. I lived in this riding for 3 years, back when I lived in BC, and I never fully understood why the NDP is so strong here, especially since, provincially, part of it is held by a BCLP that won last time against a star BCNDP candidate. I used to think it was Svend's pure riding politics that kept it orange, but now I agree that the NDP machine here has got to be pretty strong. That's why, regardless of what happens, Bill Siksay will get re-elected here and keep the ultra-left rhetoric flowing in a riding that is, politically, centrist at best.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
Brian Appel brings up a good point – Why on earth does this riding keep voting NDP? It was the riding, if I recall correctly, that Tommy Douglas held after he lost in Saskatchewan. Svend Robinson, perhaps the most left-wing MP we’ve ever had, kept winning here by small margins, now Bill Siksay wins by the same margins. How and why? The answer is simple really. This is perhaps the best and most efficiently organized riding for the NDP in the entire country. Dare I say that without the party machine, the NDP would finish third here. The reality, however, is that the NDP party machine runs smoothly here, and will manage to find the 100 or so votes they need to beat whoever their main rival turns out to be.
07 04 24 Steve L.
oooooh it turns out the Conservatives are running Ronald Leung here. this is probably the best the Conservatives can do. it has certainly exceeded my expectations.
Leung's radio career has given him some name recognition here. he can certainly give Bill Cunningham a run for his money - on the Chinese vote. meanwhile, at this point i'm not inclined to believe that more trouble for Cunningham would necessarily translate into more trouble for Siksay. the Conservatives might finish second-place here but i will still predict an NDP hold before i predict a non-NDP breakthrough.
07 04 22 David
Im goin with the NDP on this one. Yes the Liberals and Conservatives did come close and it wasnt a slam dunk for the NDP but i dont see how harpers policys could help such a diverse riding like Burnaby...if the Liberals policy on social programs moves a bit more to the left then maybe they can win but this has always been a strong NDP riding and i cant see why it would change now
07 04 22 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Put me in the ?too close to call? camp as well. This riding is a strange one as has already been pointed out and I maintain if it weren't for the tradition of Svend it wouldn't be a NDP seat at all. Cunningham is clearly determined to win this riding. Strikes me as a Chris Charlton sort. It wouldn't take much a shift to get him in here. And if Harper can move up in the BC polls a few points from last time, it could even go Tory in the manner that Paul Forseth won all those times.
I think Siksay will win but I wouldn't call it a done deal by any stretch of the imagination.
07 04 17 Steve L.
Bill Cunningham is back in here for the third friggin' time. yes it was close but if you have to make the call would it be on the guy that lost twice or the guy that won twice?
now to my knowledge the Conservatives aren't going with Drazenovic again but their current roster for the Drazenovic replacement doesn't seem to be a lot better.
so chalk this one up as a ?national campaign? riding. the party whose leadership did best just might win it. right now, the NDP has the advantage.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
I would also place this as too close to call. Although traditionally an NDP riding and still remains one at both the municipal and federal levels, last provincial election, all three ridings within this one voted for the centre-right BC Liberals. Now given all the victories were by small margins, the NDP is still strong here, so they could win, but the Liberals could also potentially win. A Tory win here is really a long shot as they seem to struggle to crack the 30% mark and would need a strong three way split. The BC Liberals also benefitted from the fact there is a large Chinese community here who tend to vote Liberal federally and BC Liberal provincially, so unlike other ridings where much of the federal Liberal vote goes NDP provincially, here most went BC Liberal.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
This riding has always baffled me. Granted, it's got some working-class parts to it, but there is a large Asian population and some decent wealth to it. Yet for years it was held by a gay uber-socialist who nearly always won the riding by the skin of his teeth, and when he left, it was taken by his former assistant who won it on his coattails. This riding should not be NDP, and it never should have been won by the NDP in 2000 or 2004. Yet it was. Bill Siksay is a fine guy, but he's nowhere near as good a riding MP as Svend was, so I wouldn't be so quick to guarantee him re-election again. It could easily go to an urban Conservative or a left-leaning, Mike Savage-esque Liberal. Definately TCTC until the nominations are done.
07 03 22 B.O.
The Liberals for a second time in a row came surprisingly close to winning this seat in the 2006 election. That is they also came close to winning the seat in the 2004 election. Last election it was a tight 3 way race between the 3 main parties. Therefore, any one of those 3 parties could win this seat in the next election. But for now I'm predicting the incumbent New Democrat winning again because he has the incumbent's advantage.

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