Prediction Changed
12:20 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cavers, Donovan Grube
New Democratic
Crawford, Michael
McLeod, Cathy
Sommerfeld, Ken

Betty Zane Hinton

2006 Result:
Betty Zane Hinton **
Michael Crawford
Ken Sommerfeld
Matt G. Greenwood

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 11 09 Goodfella
Matt is right on in his analysis with one exception. The surging Liberal vote in BC will hurt the NDP and benefit the Conservatives. Also, the rural areas may not be as well represented in the polls as the Kamloops urban area. The gun registry is still a sore spot. Too close to predict so I think you go to history: Conservatives by less than 1000 vote margin.
08 10 08 Matt
I think that this riding may be one of the closest in B.C. (if not Canada) on election day. I believe it will be a photo-finish for the Conservatives/NDP. There are several reasons for my prediction:
1. Betty Hinton (Conservative)fared poor in opinion polls in her last term.
2. The Conservatives handled the nomination of their candidate very poorly in this region. The federal party chose the candidate rather than allowing the local constituency to do so. They picked a fairly unknown lady (Cathy McLeod) for the position.
3. Michael Crawford has invested much more money into this election than probably all of the other candidates combined. He has been placing a large colour ad in every daily edition of the local paper. He has a personalized ad from Jack Layton playing on the local tv channel.
4. Jack Layton has been the only leader to come to Kamloops. He generated a lot of buzz and excitement with his visit.
5. Kamloops is a industry and university town; both of which, I believe, are often NDP supporters.
6. Kamloops has a very high retirement demographic (like Kelowna) which seem to vote Conservative.
7. Kamloops has suffered from extremely high gas prices. The Provincial Liberals (I know are not associated with the federal Liberals) are under a lot of scrutiny because of their carbon tax. I know the provincial and federal parties are separate, however I think a lot of individuals will still not vote for the Liberal candidate here for the gas price reason.
8. The latest poll has NDP and Conservatives at basically a tie. I believe this may sway many Liberals and Greens as a strategic vote as well as encouraging more Conservative votes.
It will be an exciting outcome to watch.
08 10 08 DL
Time to move this one out of the Tory column!
Mustel released the results of a riding poll in the bellweather riding of Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo today:
NDP: 34.4% (+3.5% from 2006)
Con: 34% (-5.3% from 2006)
Lib: 18% (-7% from 2006)
Green: 12% (+? from 2006)
Sample Size: 300
Error Margin: 5.8%
08 10 08 Boy Waffle
One half of one percent may be the tiniest whisker of a lead (especially in a poll with such a large margin of error), but I think that it's more than enough evidence to put this riding back into the TCTC column.
What intrigues me is how the publication of this poll may alter the race!
In a community the size of, and as geographically isolated as, Kamloops (I grew up in Kelowna, for comparison), people read their local newspapers. [If they didn't, then they wouldn't be profitable, and would go out of business.] On the one hand, it will likely accelerate the trend toward strategic voting; on the other hand, it will also likely drive up the conservative turnout on the election day.
08 10 07 Steve G
To follow up, the poll was published today, commissioned by the Kamloops Daily News and TV7, and conducted by The Mustel Group, from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. Sample size is 300, results are:
NDP Crawford 34.4 %
Cons McLeod 33.9 %
Lib Sommerfeld 17.9 %
Green Cavers 12 %
Independent (no such candidate though) 1.8%
Sample size considered accurate within 5.7%, 19 times in 20.
With undecides included:
NDP Crawford 25.8 %
Cons McLeod 25.4 %
Lib Sommerfield 13.4%
Green Cavers 9 %
Will not vote 4.4 %; Refused to answer 4.4%, Undecided 16.2%
Astoundingly, Kamloops may be set to return to 80s/90s form by rejecting having a governing-party MP and favouring the 5th-place party's representative.
08 10 07 Lisah
I am surprised that you are calling this a Conservative victory. The Conservative candidate has been getting a lot of bad press lately- she isn't showing up at Candidate Forums (‘Empty Seat Marks Wide-ranging Forum’, Kamloops Daily News, p A3), and admitted that she didn't watch the recent federal debate. Even the Kamloops Daily News is predicting Crawford in the winner's seat (although not by a wide margin). Michael Crawford is really getting his name out there (he's been campaigning hard for this position for the past two years) and I think people are responding well. Jack Layton himself must see this riding as a potential NDP supporter as he stopped here on his cross-Canada tour, and was the only leader to do so. I'm not a huge NDP fan but I see Crawford winning.
08 10 02 Steve G
With the federal Conservatives flying even higher in the polls in B.C. this time over 2006, they are unlikely to lose any ridings they currently hold, including this one. The local media commissions a poll in the final week of the campaign so we should be seeing the results in a few days.
08 09 27 Vortigern
I'd be cautious about calling this for the Conservatives just yet, since there are several clues that this is still in play.
First and foremost, we have the recent visit of Jack Layton to the riding, during which he and the local NDP candidate received national coverage. Clearly, the NDP see this riding as a good target.
Secondly, we can look at the provincial political situation, in which Gordon Campbell recently attacked Layton over his promise to renegotiate the softwood lumber deal, a policy likely to have appeal in this riding. The premier's criticism is hard to fathom, given that he wasn't exactly happy with this lumber deal when it was introduced, but it becomes understandable if he's trying to forestall a growth in NDP support.
Why would Gordo care? Quite simply, Kamloops is a provincial bellweather, and he needs to avoid losing one or both of its provincial constituencies in May 2009. In this vein, his reason for suddenly removing the toll on the Coquihalla becomes clearer - to shore up support in the interior, especially Kamloops, to which city that highway goes.
One could object that the BC Liberals are unrelated to any federal party, which is formally true. Conisder, however, that at a recent announcement by provincial and territorial ministers that they opposed Tory cuts to the arts, the ministers from BC and Alberta were conspicuously absent due to federal election commitments. Clearly, BC Liberals ARE involved in this campaign, and their behaviour can be diagnostic.
So, to boil it down, we have both a left-wing and a right-wing party who are behaving as if this seat is competitive. If the parties believe it to be true.....
08 09 25 D. Blois
I think you've called this one Conservative too hastily. Kamloops may be a bellwether provincially, but it rarely follows national trends in federal elections. Michael Crawford was simply too close last time, and too well organized this time. With a weak non-incumbent Tory, you can move the ‘name recognition’ voters from Tory to NDP. Ken Summerfeld has name recognition now too, but the tide is not going Liberal in these rural ridings.
08 09 18 Bernard
In absence of something showing the NDP is gaining ground in the area, I have to call this for the Conservatives.
The Liberal vote is complete freefall in the interior and looks to be even or behind the Greens. Where are the Liberal voters going to go?
Conservatives - 43%
NDP 30%
Greens 15%
Liberals 12%
08 09 12 R.O.
The conservatives finally did find a new candidate here to replace Betty Hinton than being Cathy Mcleod. there was even some speculation that David Emerson might run here but that obviously did not materialize. Think the race here might be becoming more of a 2 way race instead of the 3 way race of last election. As liberals in bc appear to be in trouble and carbon tax brought in by provincial liberals was not well liked so the though of another one cannot be going over well and liberals are having trouble finding candidates in the bc ridings north of this one. Meaning the race here is more between the conservatives and the ndp with the conservatives having some early momentum this election. But I will not call this one yet as its only week one.
08 09 06 david m.
frankly, betty hinton was and is a nobody. the people who are running are nobodies. as much as kamloops loves its personalities, this seat will be decided along party lines, and frankly, the conservative party is the most popular. i'd love it if the dippers could pull this off, but unless crawford is some kind of miracle-worker, this seat is headed to another incompetent tory.
08 05 08 Jake
The Tories just keep shooting themselves in the foot. Gary Lunn comes to town and builds a lot of good will by announcing 6.6 million for the airport expansion. He then advises that 10% will be taken of the top for administrative oversight. The problem is that he was in Prince George on the same day announcing funding for their airport expansion (from the same program) but there is no similar deduction. The media has jumped on this and quite frankly they are doing their best to lose a riding that they can only defeat themselves in.
08 04 23 R.O.
Even though Betty Hinton announced she was not running a few months ago its still very unclear what will happen here. The conservatives have also yet to find a new candidate to replace her but some potential ones are getting ready to run for the nomination. As for the other parties I believe the 2 previous ndp and liberal candidates are running again. The big unknown is who will be the conservative candidate. Was doing some searching here and Betty Hinton has delivered a lot more for this riding in recent months than just the airport runway. Was also water funding, homeless funding and new libraries announced here by the federal government. So to say she did nothing for this riding would be not true from what I saw.
08 03 03 A.S.
A thing to remember here is how central the presence of Kamloops is to the seat; as well as how Kamloops has been defined through the years by a blue-collar, timber/resource-based economy--as such, this is probably as gritty (as opposed to Gritty) as BC interior ridings get. Thus, it isn't *that* much of a surprise that Nelson Riis sustained himself so well, for so long; and as far as Betty Hinton goes, in the end, it's more of a ReformAlliance than CPC sort of riding--but then again, Riis notwithstanding, it isn't that much of a super-NDP sort of riding, either, as provincial electoral results bear out. Considering that Liberals have scored a strong second at least a couple of times (against both Riis and Hinton) over the past 15 years, maybe it's Grittier here than it's given credit for--the spirit of Len Marchand dies hard. So, don't chortle at the 3-way split possibility, as opposed to a strict NDP/CPC race...
08 02 13
Nelson Riis captured the seat for the NDP for the first time in May, 1979, when the federal Trudeau Liberals were a non-force in BC and the provincial NDP captured its all time high vote of 46% in BC.
In conjunction with Riis being locally popular as well as on the right wing of the NDP, the federal Liberals were unpopular in BC as well as the Mulroney Tories. In essence this was a ‘Riis’ seat.
Having said that, Kamloops is also known as a ‘bellweather’ riding closely mirroring the provincial/federal vote.
K-T-C roughly comprises the provincial ridings of Kamloops and Kamloops-North Thompson. In that last BC 2005 election, these ridings had the following results with province-wide results in parentheses: Lib - 48% (46%), NDP - 42% (42%) and Lib - 48% (46%), NDP - 40% (42%).
Similarly federally in 2006: CP: 39% (37%), NDP: 31% (29%), Lib: 25% (28%).
Additionally, the Liberals have their strongest presence in K-T-C in BC's interior.
With the CP consistently polling at or above their 37% 2006 mark province-wide in BC, the Liberals at or below their 2006 mark of 28% and the NDP polling considerably lower than their 29% 2006 mark, this seat should be a relatively comfortable win for the CP, whomever their candidate is.
07 10 16 David M.
I sense an NDP victory coming here, for 3 reasons: 1) With Hinton retiring, many Conservative voters (I'd say around 4000-5000) will be kicking tires, and mostly, they will not vote Liberal; 2) Crawford is a strong candidate in his own right, with a positive profile and good name recognition, and the NDP is resurgent in the interior. Summerfeld is also good candidate, but his party is an albatross; 3) Kamloops is Kamloops. This is a federal seat that has tended to go with the opposition, it's a place where protest votes have tended to dominate, and it's a town that is not particularly conservative. A Harper campaign won't appeal here as much as Layton one will.
The x-factor, of course, is the Conservative candidate. If it's a name (Rothenburger? Milobar? De Cicco?) the CPC will hold the riding. My sense, however, is that it's going to be a retread with the CPC connections (Dormer, Leong, etc.) and that means Michael Crawford, MP.
07 10 10
Betty Hinton announced today that she was not running in the next federal election for ‘health reasons’. I believe the diagnosis was lose-electionitis. She did get money for the airport but that's only because even her reform base would have abandoned her if she didn't deliver. After she moved to Vernon I knew the writing was on the wall. Opens the field wide though, the outcome now really depends on the Tory candidate. I would say they have a better chance at things now.
07 09 21 Jason Of Manchester
There always seems to be a poll that puts the liberals ahead in BC, but you can't take this stuff seriously. The federal Libs have all but abandoned the riding, and there is no broad based support for them. the poll may have been biased (the Kamloops daily is somewhat liberal leaning) or may just have been how people were feeling at the moment, but not what they would do in the middle of the campaign. With conservative support bleeding off in the west and the NDP momentum this one looks to be heading back to the Democrats.
07 07 30 J.Mc.
About the Liberal prediction - a Liberal leading in a B.C. interior riding!?!? Either things have changed BIG TIME in B.C. in the 10 years since I've lived there (I used to live in Kootenay-Columbia, f.k.a. Kootenay East, BTW), or there is something seriously wrong with that poll. I am not very familiar with the politics of this particular riding, but if, in fact, the Conservative incumbent has become unpopular, I would be looking to the NDP challenger if I was going to make a definitive prediction.
Unless there has been some revolutionary change in the demographics and politics of the region, if the poll that shows the Liberals leading is accurate, I would characterize this as a momentary ?blip? on the radar. At most, it could be a result of the environmentalist contingent in this part of B.C. and M. Dion's support from the environmental community.
In sum, TCTC between Conservative and NDP. If the Liberals do manage to pull off a victory in this BC interior riding, that would be a HUGE breakthrough for the Liberal Party and certainly worthy of celebration in the Liberal camp.
07 07 27 binriso
Well im not from the area, but i am thinking 'who cares enough about an airport runway expansion enough to change their vote to CPC'? Id say that Hinton has the advantage but theres no way this can be called yet, with the CPC down do 27% in BC in the latest poll and in 3rd place its possible the NDP and Liberals could make some gains here.
07 07 18 D
Betty Hinton came through for the riding - $6.6m for airport runway expansion. It's going to be tough for Crawford or Sommerfeld to continue attacking Hinton for being a do-nothing MP.
07 05 10 J.R.
Changed my mind from NDP as a result of a poll published today in the Kamloops Daily News. Ken Sommerfeld for the Liberals has 35%, Betty Hinton, the Conservative incumbent is at 30% and the NDP, to my surprise, brings up a distant third at 24%.
07 04 20 J.R.
Betty Hinton may be an incumbent but she is not hard working. There is a ‘Where's Betty’ campaign started and a general consensus that she is asleep at the switch. Given the nomination of a week Liberal candidate, the NDP has a real shot at this one. If the Conservatives had a better candidate they could probably take the riding. With Betty Hinton I am not so sure.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
Any ideas that the NDP have about how they held this riding before and can win it again should be tossed out the window. Riis is gone and this riding is solidly blue. Hinton will have very little trouble here.
07 04 11 Pundit
Incumbency will matter in this race. Betty Hinton is well known and is generally seen as a hard working. Yes partisans on the left hate her and can not stand the fact she is the MP, but that does not change her work ethic.
Nelson Riis held onto this riding for years because he was Nelson Riis, not because he was a New Democrat.
Betty Hinton has managed to get a consistent 21 000 or so votes. There is nothing to indicate that she is not going to win again, especially when the Conservatives are up in the polls and the NDP is doing badly in BC
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Betty Hinton definitely has the advantage, but with her support only around 40% here, she could potentially be vulnerable if either the NDP or Liberals choose a really strong candidate, but the chances of that happening are pretty low. Contrary to what some think, this is not a strong NDP riding, rather Riis Nielsen won based on his personal popularity. Provincially, neither of the two ridings went NDP and their provincial counterparts tend to do better than their federal counterparts. Likewise ever since Pierre Trudeau flipped the bird to a protester in Salmon Arm, the Liberals have been unable to be competitive east of the Pitt River and Surrey/Langley border.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
This could be one of the few races in the BC Interior this election. True, the Conservatives are up in the national polls, but BC is a strange place that tends to buck national trends. Kamloops has a high number of union workers and elected NDP politicans in the past. Plus Hinton has been faced with large local upheveal over her inability to secure extra funding for the local airport expansion which has led to some local dissatisfaction with her as an MP. Also, Hinton's pluralities have been getting smaller each subsequent election. However, that being said, Hinton has a definte edge at this point once you factor in her 7 yrs. incumbency and general Conservative popularity, but at this point it remains TCTC.

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