Prediction Changed
09:04 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Crowder, Jean
East, Jack
Elley, Reed
Knighton, Christina
Scott, Brian

Jean Crowder

2006 Result:
Jean Crowder **
Norm Sowden
Brian Scott
Harold Henn
Jeff Warr
Jack East

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 15 Calev
Reed Elley running again does change things here, but not enough. He is a strong candidate and if any Conservative could win here again it would be him. I think there are some things that aren't being mentioned about this riding though. For example, the mill closing in Chemainus is a serious problem for the riding and it could have a major role in the election. As for the moment, definite NDP edge.
08 03 03 A.S.
Reed Elley declined to run in '04, and Jean Crowder waltzed right into an open seat. Now Reed Elley wants his seat back. Somehow, I can anticipate a handy rerun of the Mike Scott vs Nathan Cullen '06 situation here: you snooze, you lose...
07 11 26 BJ
NDP's safest seat on Vancouver Island and provincially from Nanaimo southward is also safe NDP turf. The Reform vote (and anti-provincial NDP vote) of the '90's is no longer relevant. If the NDP doesn't win this seat they are in BIG trouble in BC.
07 11 20 binriso
There’s a 15% difference here between 1st and 2nd and that happened last election when the CPC led the NDP by about 10 points in BC. So basically the CPC can win with about a 25% lead over the NDP. Now they have a stronger candidate but it wont be enough to win and will probably wont be more than a 5% swing to them. If the Liberal vote collapses and goes overwhelmingly CPC (which it wont) the CPC could win but unless there is a big collapse in the NDP vote that a 20-25% gap opens up between the NDP and CPC that will be the only time the CPC will win here soon. Probably a 6-7000 vote win for the NDP next time a little smaller because of a stronger CPC candidate.
07 11 07 King of Kensington
This is clearly a safe NDP seat. The only reason Reed Elley took it was because the NDP was polling very low in the Chretien years and in BC a lot of the old working class NDP vote went Reform which had a populist appeal. However the Conservatives are less popular on the Island and the NDP is back to natural levels of support. Jean Crowder took this by around 10,000 votes last time. Easy NDP hold.
07 06 23 p. kelly
Who cares if Reed Elley runs for the CPC? The most recent poll for federal politics in BC shows the CPC at 33%, NDP at 29% and the Liberals at 28%...not only are the Tories not a threat in Nanaimo-Cowichan, they are under dire threat of being swept off the Island - and even some the Interior seats where the NDP is their main competitor. This is a far cry from 1993 and 1997 or 2000 as the Alliance party when they won BC with something well over 50% of the vote. If this election was to be held today, the CPC would lose one of its base-support provinces and get trounced in BC - starting with Vancouver Island.
07 05 18 DL
Who cares if ‘REED ELLEY’ is running again for the Conservatives??? The guy last won an election in this area in 2000 and with the election being postponed into 2008, it means even more time for Jean Crowder to build up all the advantages of incumbency while more and more of the ‘blue rinse’ crowd that has any recollection of ‘REED ELLEY’ dies of old age. In the 2004 and 2006 elections this seat went NDP by gigantic margins. This is a safe NDP seat now - esp. as polls show CPC support collapsing across BC and NDP support at 30%
07 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Hmmm....with Reed Elly back for the CPC, they may be able to regain this riding. CPC numbers are not as solid as people thought they were, but they have a strong candidate here. This race has become interesting.
07 04 15 Steve L.
I initially didn't understand why this riding was placed in the too-close column. That was before I learned about REED ELLEY coming back to fight for the Conservatives! Since this is a rather rural riding (many rural Vancouver Islanders don't even know what the word ‘dipper’ is supposed to mean - go figure...) Crowder's in some serious trouble here. i expect a very interesting campaign here.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Of the Vancouver Island ridings, this is probably the one safe NDP riding as this has a very large union base who tend to be left wing as well as the NDP won this riding by comfortable margins in both the last elections so even if their numbers drop, it shouldn't affect them here.
07 04 02 Pundit
This should be a slam dunk for the NDP, but for whatever reason, the federal NDP is in a tailspin in BC. I am not counting the NDP out, but the riding could go back to the right side of the spectrum.
Liberals will not be a factor
07 03 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
With such strong support for the NDP here, and the first Vancouver Island seat to swing NDP in 2004, we feel that this can be safely considered an orange riding. NDP hold.

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