Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Newton-North Delta
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Daudharia, Harjit
Dhaliwal, Sukh
Miller-Cousineau, James William
Pandher, Sandeep
Shavluk, John
New Democratic
Townsley, Teresa
Walker, Liz

Sukh Dhaliwal

2006 Result:
Sukh Dhaliwal
Nancy Clegg
Phil Eidsvik
Sunny Athwal
Rob Girn
Harjit Daudharia
Mike Saifie

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Binder Dundat
They are certainly winning the sign war and the air war (media and brochures), but in a close race, the success is in the ‘ground war’. Dhaliwal has an experienced team and hundreds of volunteers. They had a very effective Get Out The Vote for advanced and special ballot last time that set a record in the 308. This time they beat that record by 10% in a far shorter campaign.
The NDP have made little or no effort and the usual union phone calls that Nancy Clegg had have evaporated. Their candidate even filed for school board, thinking nobody would even know until after the election. I take it even SHE doesn't like her chances.
The Cons have been tainted by Gurmant for a while and Sandeep reminds them of the opportunist he was. He has only been a Conservative and a BCer for less than 2 years having been an Ottawa Liberal up until then. He has very little resources and very little support in the South Asian community. All the votes he will get are as a result of Harper's core support.
08 10 12 Graydon
I would say this one will stay in the Liberal column. With poll numbers for the Liberals having recovered somewhat and the political machine Dhaliwal has at his disposal he should be able to pull it out in a three way race.
I could only see the NDP pulling ahead of Dhaliwal in this race. And after the NDP candidate first filed her papers for trustee and then withdrew them yesterday after it was revealed one has to think she was not too confident about her chances.
08 10 09 P Peppers
The only reason the Conservatives didn't win in 2006 was because they did not have the ‘apna’ vote. Now that Sandeep Pandher can appeal to the Conservatives in North Delta, and the Indo Canadians in Newton, this should be a landslide. NDP second, Suki and Green battle it out for third. I think Sukh could have had fifth if the independent wasn't outed as a pedophile in court recently.
08 10 05 R.O.
I’d be surprised if this one stayed liberal to be honest. One thing that really hurt the conservatives here last election was the whole Gurmant Grewal thing and when he finally left it allowed the other parties to make gains here. but that was a couple of years ago now and conservatives have improved there fortunes in bc. Well the liberal numbers seem either stalled or down from last election. Sukh Dhaliwal is a strong candidate for the liberals here but his party is in trouble in bc over the carbon tax. This gives Sandeep Pandher a real shot here in this close riding.
08 09 28 Jamie Donovan
Harjit Daudharia may be a sacrificial lamb, but does have some support. Could bleed a few votes from people unhappy with all the other parties. In a close race like this one, that could affect who actually wins.
08 09 22 Gone Fishing
Tight three way races in 2004 and 2006 when Grewal was screwing up. Before that the Alliance was raking in the votes here.
I see the old alliance loyalties re-firming up in a lot of these BC battelground ridings that the Liberals squeeked out last time.
08 09 15 jm
The NDP has pulled in a lot of workers for this riding (even old warhorses like Gary Robinson) ...they have a great candidate and with the other parties splitting the ethnic vote (and the NDP getting their regular share) this is a chance that Nancy Clegg just failed in twice.
08 09 08
with the recent poll of the ‘swing’ ridings in BC putting the tories at 45% and the libs way down at 25% i think this one is going to go conservative.
08 09 06 Porter
The Green candidate has been pulled on the eve of the election for posting disturbing and anti-Semitic 9/11 statements*
Since they had less than 2% of the vote in this riding last time, they would seem fairly irrelevant here anyway, but since this is potentially another very close three way battle between the big three parties it just makes this riding all the more unpredictable!
*Not a first for BC Greens, last year the Greens nixed another candidate in Vancouver East over comments made after 9/11, when he confessed saying ‘yeah!’ over the collapse of the twin towers.
08 02 23 BJ
A true 3-way race. The Conservatives get their best results in the Sunshine Hills area in North Delta and south of 64th Ave. in Surrey. The NDP does well in the rest of both North Delta and the Newton area of Surrey. The Liberals do very well in the Newton area of Surrey with its huge Indo-Canadian population. Ergo, due to the Indo-Canadian Liberal candidate, his new incumbency factor, and the strong ties of the Indo-Canadian community with the federal Liberal brand, I would give the nod to the Liberals as a result.
08 02 18 A.S.
An ethnic-riven mess of a seat to predict. Pandher would have to come across as significantly better vote-stealer of a candidate than Eidsvik *and* the now-incumbent Dhaliwal; unfortunately, ethnicity can be a mixed blessing around here--keep in mind that the Tories under Eidsvik actually gained share (and blunted the NDP's) in the ‘whiter’ North Delta part, while losing significant ground in the more ‘Asian’ Newton part. Another fact to remember: take away the advance polls, and less than 800 votes separated the three main candidates in '06. On top of that, the three even split the won polls almost evenly--and depending on how one counts them, Eidsvik might actually have won marginally more polls than his opponents! Gee, I wish this was a provincial rather than federal seat, then I can predict it for the NDP without agonizing...
07 10 19
Sandeep Pandher is a better candidate than the last Conservative candidate Eidsvik. He will be able to reach out to the crucial South Asian community. The CPC's platform on getting tough on crime will resonate in Surrey especially, with its reputation of being crime capital of BC.
07 07 05 Chris
The shihk community tends to be conservative, and seeing as they are a large factor and tend to rally around their own its no surprise that Dhaliwal won last time (Edsvik also helped push them to a default vote). with a better Indo-Canadian candidate here (who is also more educated then dhaliwal)this riding will certainly go Tory blue.
07 04 17 Steve L.
Phil Eidsvik did pretty well for a last-minute candidate.
the major question here will be: what will Newton-North Delta be like if the Conservatives maintain their performance in a post-Grewal landscape?
the candidates matter. and right now i'm not impressed by the incumbent or any of the challengers.
chalk this one up as a bellwether riding. the seat will go do the party that does best nationally.
07 04 12 Lawrie
Was a tight 3 way race last time. Teresa Townsley is a non factor in the race considering people are upset that after not even having completed her first term on School Board she's already seeking another job... I think that this will now be a two way race. Considering Pandher is a much better communicator I believe he will relate well to both Ethnic and non ethnic voters in the riding,
07 04 07 Harry
Sukh Dhaliwal has worked hard, and his Tory opponent wont even admit he was an organizer and a fundraiser for the Liberals, and said that everyone trumps up their resumes with exaggerations. The Tories will be a distant third. Curious how the NDP will do though.
07 03 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
As for now, we feel that this is going to stay Liberal, however a good run by the NDP or a credible candidate from the CPC could steal this from them. The latter is unlikely in our opinion as Harper's brand of conservitism isn't resonating as well in lower BC as they may like.

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