Prediction Changed
12:20 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

New Westminster-Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Black, Dawn
Dahlby, Lewis C.
Hassen, Michelle
Martin, Yonah
Smith, Marshall
Verrier, Roland

Dawn Black

2006 Result:
Dawn Black
Paul Forseth **
Joyce Murray
Sven Biggs
Paul Warnett
Dick Estey
Joseph Theriault

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Austin North
Kevin Grandia from is saying that Dawn Black is in trouble and the news announcer says Black is losing to Martin due to a split in the left-wing vote.
I know there is division within the local NDP. Black has been strongly backed by a clique of Labour Council activists who have alienated other NDPers. Black's campaign has suffered because of this due to a lack of volunteers (usually an NDP strength).
08 10 04 Observer
The latest BC poll shows Conservatives at 40% NDP-24% Liberal-21%. However that splits out differently in the Vancouver area electoral districts. Paul Forseth left a good reputation for his Party, and Conservative Yonah Martin may benefit by a positive coattail effect, but in the end she has to do it all on her own. It looks like the newcomer Liberal does not have chance, as she is really running for her personal career reasons to develop a pedigree as being a faithful soldier iconoclast academic Liberal. This is Dawn Black's last federal race. She is 65 years old and if she wins, she will be lining up her retirement plans. Voters might just retire her earlier than she wants...but she has always has the unearned support of the Unions. The expectations for Dawn Black for higher profile at the last election has now evaporated, as she has somewhat disappeared from the local scene since being elected. There is a bit of ‘Dawn who’ now in the riding. (Dawn Black lives just outside the Riding) Yonah Martin (Master Degree in Education) has taught school in the riding for a long time and is at least connected the to ‘parents-kids-families issues’ in the riding. Yonah has not had the exposure to the national political scrapping and inside baseball of secondary political points, so she still has some to learn to become a scrapper like Dawn. So it is between Dawn Black and Yoanh Martin in the end. For whoever wins, it will only be to a small part to their merit, as they will ride the tide of the general BC trend. The result for this riding is too close to call at this time, in this clear two-way race.
08 09 27 Linda
With the NDP coming up in the polls and the Liberals going down, it looks like Dawn Black will benefit by picking up Liberal votes from those who don't want a Conservative to win. There are two choices in this riding, Dawn Black and the Conservative candidate so Black will probably pick up Liberal and Green voters who vote strategically to try to stop the Conservative. Also Black has a high profile in the riding while the Conservative candidate lives in Vancouver and has done little to get out and known in the riding since being nominated. What community work she has done is nearly entirely focused in the Korean community. The Liberals have run third here in the last few elections and with a young, unknown candidate and their sinking support, they will get even fewer votes this time as some Liberals decide to go with Dawn Black as the only person who can defeat the Conservative candidate. Green voters too will go to Black in the voting booth when the moment of truth arrives and they face the fact their candidate has no chance of being elected.
08 09 26 Austin North
This is not a three-way race. There are no strong Liberal areas in this riding and no history of Liberal MPs. Despite having a decent candidate, the Liberals will run a distant third.
Not only that, the Liberal vote will significantly decline from last time. The question is, do those votes go Conservative or NDP? That will decide this election. Also, will the Greens take many NDP votes?
The New Westminster and Port Moody parts of this riding went NDP in 2006, while Coquitlam leaned Conservative. There are very Conservative parts of Port Moody, but they are not in this riding.
Still too close to call.
08 09 26 DM in Coquitlam
I still think that this election is too close to call. It appears to be a three way race and was relatively close last election, with a slate of dud candidates. So far I see that the 3 front runners all seem well qualified, it's just a matter on who you believe will work more for you.
The reason you don't see signs in Coquitlam, is that they passed a by-law only allowing 1 lawn sign only at residences. You see them popping up now and seems to be tied between NDP and Conservative. Port Moody seems to be going Conservative.
08 09 23 Mr. Tiggywinkles
Too close to call. From my observation, the Liberal candidate is 1000 times better then Joyce Murray, plus the last election was a protest vote against Joyce Murray who (a former MLA) had closed St. Mary's Hospital.
The conservative candidate has some pull with Korean population and the NDP generally does well in New-West, but has also struggled in the more liberal neighbourhoods of Port Moody and Coquitlam.
The green vote will play a factor and eat into the NDP vote, which makes this race the closest in BC. This will be a 3 way race, it’s anyone’s ballgame.
08 09 19 Austin North
I'd still say this is too close. Dawn Black has a fair number of signs up in New West, which is expected. Coquitlam has few signs for any party.
08 09 17 Schel
Dawn Black beat Paul Forseth last time by a fairly large margin, however, history won't repeat itself in this riding.
Firstly, the Liberals aren't running Joyce Murray but an unknown, Michelle Hassen. For the Liberals, a generic candidate is a better alternative to Murray, who had baggage (she was barely able to win the strong Liberal riding of Quadra!) As a result, the Liberal vote will go up, as the focus will be on the Liberal brand as opposed the candidacy of Joyce Murray.
The Conservatives are in better shape too. Paul Forseth was not well liked as evidenced by the fact that the NDP nearly beat him with a lacklustre candidate in 2004. Even an unknown candidate will do better for the Conservatives.
Then there is Dawn Black. She is a candidate who traditionally polls at the level that her party polls at. when the NDP's fortunes are good, she wins (1988 and 2006). When the party's fortunes are not so good, she loses (1993, 1997). There is nothing about Black that distinguishes her from the party, ie makes her personally more popular.
With the Tories surging and the Liberal brand stubbornly hanging on, there aren't enough votes there for Dawn Black to win.
08 09 14 ms2008voter
I predict Dawn Black will win this riding. Both Hassen and Martin are new-comers to the political scene, and I can't imagine they'd do any better a job representing the riding. While the Conservatives have done well in this riding before, if people are voting for the candidate - not the riding - then I predict the NDPs will take it.
08 09 11 Austin North
Good call, it is too close. Dawn Black isn't a strong local MP and has not stood out as a Defence Critic. I'll probably vote NDP but with mixed feelings. We'll see who knocks at my front door. I have my ear to ground and will post again if I hear anything interesting.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Dawn Black beat a three term incumbent. She is well liked in New West, and has a high profile. It won't be a huge win, but she'll likely pull it off.
08 09 11 Keglerdave
Dawn Black is a powerful force in 2008, up against a Conservative candidate who doesn't live in either New Westminster, Coquitlam or Port Moody, and a Liberal candidate who is going to have a real hard time pushing the Liberal agenda of a ?Green Shift? on an electorate already encumbered by one carbon tax, and an inherent mistrust of the Liberals, as well as overcoming a weak leader in Dion.
Dawn's profile in the community through her outreach and constituency work, combined with her work on national issues makes her a tough incumbant for either the cons or the libs to knock out. A definite hold for the NDP in this riding.
08 09 01 Warren
I have to say that Dawn Black is very competent an MP since he is as NDP as it can be when it comes down to the issues. She is an excellent defender for union rights. But a good campaigner she is not. But she was personally defeated by the previous MP and Yonah would easily poll support than Paul. The question will come down to the turn-out. Will there be enough of a turn out to push Yonah over the edge? I am doubtful. I give this a 50-50 but an edge for tories since I believe Yonah is a tougher candidate for Dawn Black to take on.
08 05 11 binriso
I think Dawn Black will win. Joyce Murray isn?t running here again, which probably means the Liberal vote goes down a bit (Ok i know she wasnt that strong of a candidate but she was an MLA). Plus she will have the incumbents advantage. The Greens are very weak here also, like 3% last time. The CPC have a candidate, probably better than their previous one but ill pick the NDP for now.
08 03 03
The more suburban ridings in BC tend to be 3-way sea-saw races. That being said, the Liberals nominated an inexperienced candidate who will likely do worse than former provincial MLA/minister Joyce Murray. This race will be between NDP incumbent Dawn Black and CPC teacher Yonah Martin. Martin is a star candidate on her own right - as a prominent organizer in the Korean-community and the recipient of several community awards. She will be able to connect to the Asian community. Though it will be a close race, I will predict this riding to be a CPC win.
08 02 03 A.S.
Dawn Black's back; yet in a way, this turf should've been hers all along, but for the execrable state of the federal (and provincial, for that matter) party. And just her luck if for the *second* time, she's squeeze-played out after one term--but in all honesty, I don't see it as any less safe for the NDP than its Burnaby/New West (and Surrey, for that matter) neighbours, whatever the opponents are.
07 10 18
While the vote in New Westminster is split between the NDP and Liberals, I think that the split will not be sufficient to let the conservatives win. The NDP will probably make substantial gains in the upcoming election and will not lose this seat.
07 09 16 Mike
I think Dawn Black has a slight edge at this time. BC voters don't generally vote along ethnic lines, and this is obvious when you see both heavily East Asian eastside Vancouver seats have MPs of European-descent. Losing Forseth will probably help the Conservatives but keep in mind that his views also appealed to certain voters. Black hasn't stood out as a particularly strong MP, but has maintained some profile. The wild card here is what will happen to the Liberal vote if Dion doesn't gets his act together by the next election (and whether he gets replaced).
07 07 08 12th year resident in Coquitlam
The game of this riding is how will the LEFT & MIDDLE voters split. Conservatives are at about 30% of the vote in this riding, Liberal/NDP about the same so it is anybody's game.
07 04 15 Steve L.
Conservative fortunes definitely improved with the departure of Paul Forseth. And the lacklustre performance of the incumbent MP certainly isn't making the Conservatives' lives more difficult.
But Yonah Martin is a new face ultimately, and i'm not sure how well she'll fare. at this point i'm going to say if she does the toe-party-line stuff like Dawn Black she doesn't have much of a chance of winning.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one for the Conservatives. The fact they have an Asian candidate doesn't mean the Asian community will go Conservatives. Asians don't vote solely on the issue of what race the candidate comes from. Add to the fact the Asian vote went mostly BC Liberal in the last provincial election, yet this area still elected mostly BC NDP MLAs so that suggests to me that unlike Richmond, where winning the Asian vote could tip this that one to the Tories, this will be a lot more difficult. Paul Forseth only won in 2004 due to a perfect three way split. Unless the NDP and Liberals perfectly split the non-Conservative vote, the Conservatives won't win this. They consistently get around 32-33% here and probably will again. My guess is Dawn Black holds this, but not a guarantee. Lets remember this includes the working class New Westminster which is the most left wing suburb in the GVRD, middle class Coquitlam, which is really a three way race, while the polls of Port Moody it includes are mostly NDP as the more conservative ones are all in James Moore's riding.
07 04 01
Yonah Kim Martin has deep roots with the Korean and Asian community. In ways, she represents what the Conservatives need to capitalize in the next election:
-Ethnic minority, has deep roots in community
For these reasons, the Conservatives will invest a lot of financial aid into her campaign. With Paul Forseth gone (many saw him as too right-wing), Kim Martin will likely take this one back.

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