Prediction Changed
4:25 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green
Brindamour, Rod
Libertarian
Gillespie, Rob
Liberal
McKinnon, Ron
Conservative
Moore, James
New Democratic
Royer, Zoë

Incumbent:
James Moore

2006 Result:
James Moore **
19961
Jon Kingsbury
13134
Mary Woo Sims
11196
Greg Watrich
2317
Scott Froom
1623
Lewis Dahlby
309

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 09 Tri-City voter
66.183.29.183
James Moore will easily win for a few reasons. He is by far the best candidate in this riding and has appeal far beyond the Conservative base. Also, Zoe Royer of the NDP is not a serious candidate. She really did poorly at the local all candidates' debates in Port Moody and at the Evergreen Cultural Centre, even drawing laughter on more than a few occaisions. Ron McKinnon comes across as an honest man but is a weak candidate. My election night result prediction is 50% Moore, 25% Royer, 20% McKinnon.
08 09 28 Big bad will
99.240.197.6
Easy win for James Moore. Here's why: Kingsbury was an extremely high profile candidate for the Liberals in this riding having just been mayor for 8 years of the regions most populous city. And he still lost substantially to the Conservatives. A undistinguished Liberal candidate probably meant that the Liberal party decided rather than get another high profile like Trasolini, that this riding was unwinnable and decided to save resources for closer races. Moore is an establishment, everybody knows him here.
08 09 11 CRS in PoMo
142.103.207.10
Conservatives will hold this - no contest. James has broad knowledge about local and national issues, respected in the community, and has a mature EDA and campaign team. The others parties currently have no presence in this riding.
08 02 03 A.S.
99.233.96.153
The Whitby-Oshawa comparison is quite apt. And like Jim Flaherty, James Moore probably brings some added personal reinforcement to whatever ‘natural’ Tory strength lies within. It's certainly telling that the NDP's no longer making vaunting claims to the seat (cf. earlier EPP episodes)
07 11 15 R.O.
209.91.149.139
Conservative hold for James Moooe mp as he is one of the more liked suburban vancouver tory mp's. and has held this riding since 2000 when he was first elected. he's a good fit for this riding and should have little trouble here.
07 10 27 King of Kensington
70.52.185.130
I'd say this is BC counterpart of Whitby-Oshawa...far enough removed from Vancouver to be Conservative territory. It is filled with the sort of suburban/exurban voters that Harper is targeting - what Environics calls the ‘blue collar comfort’ demographic.
07 04 10 Paulie
70.68.166.174
With an election call possibly weeks away, I'm ready to call this one Conservative.
The Liberals will win 25-30% of the vote, because they always do. But the absence of a candidate with any profile will not put them over the top.
The NDP? Forget it. They had a dismal candidate last time that was parachuted in by the party (Mary Woo Sims) and rumour has it that nobody wants to run there next time.
Green? No.
The question is how much of the vote Moore will get. I say over 50%, which he hasn't gotten since 2000.
07 03 21 Jim Schumer
206.116.194.83
Not even a question here. Moore will win big. Liberals invisible here and the Federal ndp party is a non-starter showing no resemblance to the popular ndp mla here. James does a good job and should be in cabinet.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
James Moore is a moderate and popular upcoming MP. It is too bad he didn't get a cabinet position as he was the closest Conservative MP to Vancouver of those elected as Conservatives. This riding leans conservative, but is not a safe one (like the North Shore ridings which went Liberal), rather James Moore represents this upper middle class riding that is fiscally conservative but socially progressive unlike the two North Shore candidates who were from the religious right. If their candidate was from the religious right, the Tories might be in trouble here.



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