Prediction Changed
10:34 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Arendt, Hondo
New Democratic
Cullen, Nathan
Canadian Action
Goodacre, Mary-Etta
Morhart, Corinna
Smith, Sharon
Christian Heritage
Taylor, Rod

Nathan Cullen

2006 Result:
Nathan Cullen **
Mike Scott
Gordon Stamp-Vincent
Rod Taylor
Phil Brienesse

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 12
I drove from smithers to terrace ( 2hr) drive today and after the Smithers airport all I saw was Nathan Cullen signs. This should be a strong NDP WIN as Nathan Cullen is a strong candidate who has attained a higher level of support than his party. Expect the Rod Tayor Christian Heritage Party candidacy to gain a little support from the conservatives who are agast with Sharon Smith. Perhaps a larger majority than the 6000 last time.
08 09 09 B@BD
I stand by my prediction from last year. Cullen does not seem to be taking anything for granted even though he is now a heavy favourite. His savvy with the Internet, campaigning energy and a strong team appears to be a juggernaut that will not easily be stopped. Smith still has a backdoor chance, however, but she'll have to heavily court both the Liberal and Christian Heritage votes, as well as, get some major support from the Party. It all depends on whether the Conservatives see this riding as one they can flip.
08 03 30 Some guy
My understanding is that the Conservatives have nominated Houston Mayor Sharon Smith, a reasonably astute politician (aside from a scandal involving a lack of clothing).
The western part of the riding along the Highway 16 corridor will likely vote more towards the NDP, but the eastern part (from Smithers out east) will probably go more Conservative.
If it were to be a Tory win, it would be a damn close one. But I think the Conservatives chose the right candidate.
08 03 03 A.S.
Nathan Cullen's enough of an NDP star that he's been cited as a potential Layton successor several times over; and his most recent trouncing of Mike Scott proves that the seat's ReformAlliance phase was perhaps just a blip--then again, now that Bulkley Valley's been stapled onto Skeena, it *shouldn't* be so natural an NDP seat like it used to be. But Cullen, like Charlie Angus and Brian Masse and whomever else, has done a good job accounting for that fact. He'll lose only if his party loses official party status--and then some.
07 04 24 BatBD
This is definitely a two-horse race with the edge going to incumbent Nathan Cullen no matter who the Conservatives throw at him. In that regard, the local Tory riding association is dragging their feet ? do they know something the others don't? Nevertheless, a strong candidate could give Cullen a run for his money depending on which way the wind is blowing. If Stephen Harper looks poised to get his majority, Northwesterners could vote to have a voice in government. The mayor of Houston, Sharon Smith, might have an outside shot if she can get the party machine behind her and matches Cullen's tireless campaigning. She needs to get in the saddle soon, however. The Christian Heritage Party has once again chosen Rod Taylor as their candidate. Expect him to get more than a thousand votes because he is one of the most sincere politicians you'd ever want to meet. But even here in the bible belt of B.C., his views and those of his party are a little extreme even for conservative voters. That's not to say the Tories should, target CHP voters. That was one of Mike Scott's mistakes in 2006. Those votes are solidly idealogical and appealing to them alienates the softer conservative vote. The Conservatives also need to stay away from mudslinging this time, which backfired on Scott. If Smith runs, she should go after the and Liberal vote. Phil Brienesse, who also ran last time accepted the nomination for the Green Party and then pulled out deciding to focus on getting elected to Smithers Town council in 2008. Probably a good decision considering he ran dead last in 2006 and the environmental vote is strongly behind the NDP. Expect another Green candidate to do just as badly. The Liberals have picked Corinna Morhart, a candidate who is extremely difficult to find out anything about ? if anyone has any information. let me know. Not that it matters, the Grits would need an act of God to get elected in this riding. It should be an interesting campaign and not the blowout that everyone seems to expect.
07 04 17 Steve L.
meh Cullen's winning margins haven't improved that much. if we're gonna put Nanaimo-Cowichan in the too-close column i wouldn't be surprised if this riding goes Conservative. but yes presently the odds are in favour of Cullen, who has been entrusted with various environment-related works now that it's a big issue. and after former incumbent Mike Scott failed to win the riding in 2006, we have a telling indication of just what is required on the Conservatives' part to change the color of this riding.
but as of now, i will still say that this riding has a better chance of going Conservative than - you guessed it - Nanaimo-Cowichan. there is, after all, more inland voters than there are coastal communities or Indian reserves.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This is normally a swing riding with the NDP being strong in the coastal areas and First Nations Reserves, while the inland areas off the First Nations Reserves generally lean to the right. However, this is a riding where a significant portion of the population will vote for the candidate as opposed to party and Nathan Cullen is well liked so he should easily be re-elected here.
07 03 25 BCer
Expect a similar result to the last election. Possibly a tightening, but I believe the NDP should be able to hold based on Cullen's strong past campaigning. That is, if he's gonna be the candidate(?)
07 03 25 DL
Nathan Cullen massively increased his margin of victory between 2004 and 2006 and he has become one of the NDP's most high profile MPs. He is probably unbeatable.

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