Prediction Changed
10:11 PM 20/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green
Blair, David
Conservative
Hiebert, Russ
Liberal
Higginbotham, Judy
Progressive Canadian
Marlatt, Brian
New Democratic
Prontzos, Peter

Incumbent:
Russ Hiebert

2006 Result:
Russ Hiebert **
26383
Jim McMurtry
17336
Libby Thornton
9525
Pierre Rovtar
2980
Brian Marlatt
293

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 02 A.S.
99.233.96.153
The dearth of entries here is telling compared to last time. In '04, the Liberals pulled off a near-upset in what ought to have been the most dependably conservative-leaning part of Surrey. Then, two years later, the CPC-Liberal margin nearly tripled, South Surrey was back to normal, and everybody shut up. Though maybe we shouldn't *not* heed the political message of 2004, especially, now, if there's any ripple from Cadmangate throughout Surrey...
07 04 06 Brian Appel
64.230.127.250
This is my dad's riding and, if you've ever been here, you'd know just how right-wing it is. The riding has fields of grain, a rodeo once a year and small town folks driving pick-up trucks. And, in White Rock, you have wealth and WASP's. People in the riding might be prepared to elect a right-wing, Tom Wappel-type Liberal if there was no Conservative incumbent, but right now there's a young MP here who is hugely popular. Easy, easy hold for the Conservatives here.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
As much as I don't like Russ Hiebert's religious fundamentalism this is a very conservative riding economically and somewhat conservative socially so while the rest of Surrey may be moving away from the Tories, this riding isn't, so while the Tories might lose Fleetwood-Port Kells, this one should stay Conservative.



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