Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Island North
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bell, Catherine
Draper, Jason
Duncan, John
Fleischer, Geoff
Stone, Philip

Catherine Bell

2006 Result:
Catherine Bell
John Duncan **
Jim Mitchell
Michael Mascall

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 binriso
According to the site Bell will be the only incumbent defeated for the NDP, but ill dispute that and say she’ll hold on again. The CPC were ahead by 10 points province wide last time and still only won 17/36 seats, their rural supermajorities obscure the fact that they lose many races by a couple thousand votes. Not to mention the incumbents advantage and the fact that shes facing the same candidate from last time, which means the result wont be that different. And she running on Vancouver Island, the strongest part of the province for the NDP.
08 10 11 Nicole
Although it will be close, I think Bell will retain her seat here.
In Bell's favour: in the last week of the campaign, strategic voting messages in support of the NDP have been making the rounds. These include third-party ads by traditional Liberal voters and an article by Guy Daunchey who is very well known amoung enviromentalists and would be Green supporters. Also, Jack Layton's visit to the riding last week, which was standing room only and produced a good media, both locally and regionally.
On the other hand, Duncan's campaign has slowed down - his performances at all candidate meeting (when he attends them) have gotten progressivley more awkward, and his last ads were much less prominent in the local papers than were Bell's.
Although the Green will do alright, I don't think he will have much of an impact on the NDP vote. His home-turf (and strongest area) is Quadra Island and even there, the vote is solidly NDP.
The real story here will be where the Liberal vote will go.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
I think John Duncan make re-take this seat by a small margin. Bell may be one of the only seats nationally the NDP loses on election night. She is one of the least high-profile MP's in her party, and with Duncan targetting the areas he narrowly missed last time, he may edge back in.
08 10 05 R.O.
Although this riding has some ndp history to it John Duncan also held it for a long time starting in 93 to 06. I think its going to be close now that Catherine bell has been mp for a couple of years but in the end return to the conservatives. As the conservatives are to high in the polls in bc to not take back some of there traditional seats. This riding is also one of the 10 battleground ridings being tracked and conservatives have had a clear advantage in them this election over the other parties. Stephen Harper also campaigned on Vancouver island and visited Courtenay. A sign the riding is one there targeting this election.
08 10 03 AndyN1331
After John Duncan gained the support of a number of First Nations chiefs and now that Bell made the horrible mistake of telling High School students in Port McNeill that she will support legalization of marijuana, Duncan has strong momentum.
Add to that the presence of a strong Green candidate and that former ex-Liberal supporters are not impressed with the lack of representation from Bell, and you have a very tough challenge for Ms. Bell.
In this riding ABC means anyone but Catherine.
08 09 27 Boy Waffle
I was surprised when the Tories managed to cling onto this riding in 2004, and even more surprised at how small the NDP's margin of victory was in 2006. I don't see any reason why this riding should slip back into Tory hands, as having an NDP incumbent should only reduce left-wing vote-splitting further, but ... let's just say that I'm ready to be surprised yet again.
08 09 21 Calev
I predict a Conservative victory here. This was 4th closet seat the Cons lost and should be on the top of their targeting list. Plus the combination of the Conservatives at 45% in the BC swing riding (including this one), according to CTV, up from 35% in 2006, along with the NDP down from 26% in 2006 to 18 now. (with a 5% margin of error) Now combine all that with the Conservatives hovering in the national polls around 38-41% despite numerous gaffes and controversies, I say on election night look for this to be a CON pick up, but still very close.
08 09 20 John
Bernard's point (3) really doesn't apply in this riding simply because, based on last election, the Liberals aren't a factor in this riding. Even if all the Liberal votes were to go to the Greens, they still won't close the gap with the Conservatives and the NDP.
It's really a two way race between the Conservatives and the NDP. And if I had to place my bets today, I'd go with the Conservatives for another one of the reasons Bernard gave. Conservative support provincially is up, and NDP support provincially is down.
08 09 18 Bernard
I could not tell you how this riding will go.
1) This time around Bell has the incumbency advantage over Duncan - should be worth 2000 votes for her.
2) Conservatives are up in BC, Liberals and NDP are down.
3) Green support is way up and party losing the most voters to them are the Liberals.
Best guess at the moment?
NDP and Conservatives 40%
Greens 15%
Liberals 5%
08 09 13 Dave Jones
Again, this should be a very close race between Bell & Duncan. Even though I'm supporting Bell, I'm pretty sure Duncan will win because of the rise of the Greens. The majority of the Greens tend to be ex-NDP (Greens always deny this) & this should be enough to put Duncan ahead.
Another factor in favour of Duncan is the massive influx of retirees, which tend to vote conservative, into the Comox Valley.
08 05 24 R.O.
This seat is one which has been very close the last 2 federal elections but I think it could return to the conservatives as former mp John Duncan is running here again. Not that Catherine Bell has done anything wrong just this riding has been more a conservative one in recent years than an ndp one. Although its far from guaranteed either way as its been so close in recent years so its worthy of too close to call for now. But it will be interesting to see if the ndp can hold on to ridings like this one. For the conservatives it is the type of riding they really never should of lost to begin with so it will be interesting to see what they do here.
08 03 16 BJ
VI North is also witnessing some of the same ?Albertan? retiree phenomenon as Nanaimo-Alberni right up to Campbell River. Comox Airport has experienced significant growth over the past 5 years, 13.8% in 2007 alone, and the Calgary and Edmonton markets represent a large portion of the passenger volume. While much of that may be attributable to recreation, my sense is that the riding, over the longer term, is also trending towards the Conservatives as a result.
08 02 16 A.S.
Catherine Bell of the NDP, not Catherine Bell of JAG (you wish, fellas). It was a sweet ‘you thought we were dead, huh’ near-victory for the NDP in '04, and they succeeded in completing that unfinished business in '06. Since Bell's not one of the higher-profile NDPers out there, I'd hope they're not too complacent in incumbency--it's got the makings of their most likely BC seat to fall, after all...
07 04 15 Steve L.
same matchup between the same faces. neither of these people are competent MPs really, which partially explains why both election results were close.
one of the defining characteristics of the last campaign here was how horribly the Liberals were hemorrhaging votes to both the NDP and the Conservatives. this campaign, depending on the Liberal candidate's performance and depending on which voter group they siphon votes from, the winner will be determined between the NDP and the Conservatives. at this point the Liberals will obviously be targeting the leftist vote more than the rightist vote. so while this is still too close to call, the NDP has more to worry about than the Conservatives.
07 04 12 Matt O
NDP win. Conservatives picked an old tired candidate who just lost the last election after several years of incumbency. Current NDP member has had a lot of exposure in the riding, much more than the tory had in his last several years.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so sure of the Tories re-taking this. The NDP may be down nationally, but BC has a long history of bucking the national trend as they did last election, so it could happen again. Prior to 1993, this was a very safe NDP riding, and although the new retirees moving to Comox has helped the Conservatives, which is why this is a swing riding, this still has a large union vote and while some union members may have gone Reform as a protest vote, the vast majority are left wing in their views and will likely vote for a left wing party. The real question will be will the Liberals gain or decline here and at whose expense and to whose benefit.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this. Even though the NDP is down nationally, BC often bucks the national trend. Never mind if there is a lot of strategic voting this should help the NDP. While retirement communities like Comox should go Conservative, the rural parts are heavily unionized and the union vote tends to go NDP in BC.
07 04 02 Pundit
A very close riding the last two times, but given the dramatic drop in the NDP in BC and the general rise of the Conservatives, this riding will go back to the Conservatives.

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