Prediction Changed
09:04 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Forst, Bill
Sutherland, Ian
Weston, John
Wilson, Blair

Blair Wilson

2006 Result:
Blair Wilson
John Weston
Judith Wilson
Silvaine Zimmermann
Anne Jamieson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 11 Ryan Windsor
I have no idea where the idea came from that Blair is not making national news many times when the Greens are discussed Blair is also discussed. Global had there final televised candidates debate from their studio with the 4 Candidates from this riding and sure wasn't because of the NDP, Lib or Con candidates.
The Greens are the party that people often state as their first or second choice. NDP, Liberal and Conservatives are all identifying their second choice as the Greens.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
What I find interesting about this riding is that other than in the first week of the campaign when it became a national news story that Blair Wilson had become a Green MP, there does not seem to have been any national coverage of him ever since!
There's been lots of focus on Elizabeth May during the campaign, but no discussion of Blair Wilson. Does this mean that he is already considered a non-factor? It doesn't seem to be a very encouraging sign for him getting elected as a Green.
08 10 07 Tommy Motorola
It seems as though the Conservative base is slipping away from Weston, as many long-time traditional Conservative voters are disappointed with Harper on the taxing of income trust. Moreover, some soft or new Conservative voters are fearful of whether Harper can lead us through the tough economic times ahead. It seems as though, Wilson will pick up a considerable number of votes on the Sunshine Coast, Whistler, and Squamish, while Weston will dominate West Van. Furthermore, while Weston is winning the sign war, Wilson has clearly been far better received throughout the riding, and at candidate debates. I think Wilson will win by less than 50 votes, as he will gather the soft-Conservative vote, half the Liberal vote, half of the strategic NDP vote, the star power of Elizabeth May at the national debates, name recognition as MP for the last 3 years, but more importantly, votes from the new environment movement.
08 10 05 Janice
Sutherland as the recent mayor of Squamish has similar name recognition as Wilson. Wilson has only been a Green for 35 days after being forced out of the Liberal party. He will not be re-elected despite campaigning for the past ten months in the riding. He will be forced to look for CA work once again if he can find a company to accept his tarnished credentials. Weston may win by making the fewest mistakes and having some name familiarity from running in the last election and losing by less than 1000 votes.
08 10 04 Burt
Weston, this time. Ian Sutherland hasn't had enough time to campaign, Wilson will get enough votes to ensure a split and the NDP will fare better than last time overall but still not good enough in West Van.
08 09 29 Laurence Putnam
Weston 40%
Sutherland 27%
Wilson 18%
Forst 15%
This will be either the third or fourth best Green showing in Canada.
Both Sutherland and Forst ought to have done better, but will both be held up by their late nominations and by the Green vote split.
In short, a gift for the Conservatives, this time.
Conservatives shouldn't feel too safe going into the future - a reinvigorated Liberal party here with a credible local candidate, and Igantieff (perhaps) as leader would do well in this weird mish-mash of a riding which includes West Van champagne liberals, urbanite Whistler slopebunnies and coastal environmentalists.
Whether Weston can cement himself will depend on whether or not he can manage what is logistically one of the hardest ridings in Canada for an incumbent to build name recognition by participating in community events, etc. It includes three provincial ferry routes, approx. 200km of the provincial 99 highway, and the last Western stop on the Trans-Canada Highway - with six principal municipalities (West Vancouver, Squamish, Whistler, Gibsons, Sechelt and Powell River) to service! (and a swath of smaller ones)
Frankly, all the candidates who seriously want to serve this riding are true gluttons for punishment.
08 09 25 bza
Tommy Motorola, the NDP put a new candidate in there, Bill Forst. Who could do possibly better than Dana Larsden. Since even though the Sunshine Coast is a big fan of the stuff Mr. Larsden digged. Not everyone was.
So the NDP support is likely to hold or grow. I would still call it for the Conservatives. The Liberals winning here was a surprise to me last time. With the vote splitting between the Liberals and Greens, its going Conservative.
Though I would be interested to see if Wilson can beat the Liberals for 2nd place. That would show that the Greens could have future growing room here.
08 09 23 Nick J Boragina
I've taken a look at the numbers and I have the agree the Tories will win here. Even if Wilson was clean and a Liberal, the Tories are up so far in the polls in BC that this riding would be the first to fall.
08 09 23 Tommy Motorola
I see Blair winning this riding. Let's examine, the NDP candidate is out, so that vote will arguably be divided amongst the Liberals, Greens, and those who do not vote. Equally of importance is the fall out from the Income Trust affair, alot of traditional Conservatives in this riding are disappointed in Harper flip-flopping on the issue, and Weston is hearing alot of that at the door step, so one must assume that those voters will vote Green or Liberal. Combine those factors with Blair's one term as MP, and his name recognition (positive/negative) plus the NDP vote, and the Conservative disenfranchised vote, he will win by a small margin.
08 09 18 SJ
What is it with this riding and candidates with ‘legal issues’? NDP candidate chucked (memo to self: don't YouTube yourself smoking dope while driving); Green / former Lib with legal issues regarding campaign funding; I'm predicting the good people of West Vancouver / Happy Valley / Joy to the World Country or whatever it is now called will vote ‘A Pox On Both Your Houses.’ Surprise Tory win.
08 09 18 Michael
Is Blair Wilson actually seeking re-election? Stupid question, I know... but you couldn't tell from his website. It hasn't been updated since the election was called. If he really is running a well organized campaign, as someone said, could he put some news online, or mention something about the Green platform, or announce where he's campaigning? It makes it look as though he has no volunteers at all... surely someone could set up a blog for the poor guy.
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
Clear Conservative win. Wilson had his fifteen minutes of fame but with no Green ground support to keep him in the House, he's finished. Unlike in byelections the Greens can't focus their energies on particular ridings in a general election. However the incumbency factor (everyone makes friends while in office) brings up Green fortunes significantly, just enough to cause the Liberals and NDP to lose. Classic example of how first past the post leads to undemocratic and unrepresentative results.
08 09 18 ABC Phoenix
No so fast on that call for the CPC. With the NDP candidate out, the vote on the left will be united behind the liberal candidate, who should now take the riding.
08 09 17 Laurence Putnam
Whoa! News flash - the NDP candidate has been turfed over some ongoing legal issues -- we're 10 days into the campaign and there is no NDP candidate - this means that almost 13,000 votes accumulated by the last NDP candidate is going to drop considerably - and it is very possible that the chief beneficiary of those votes could be Blair Wilson - who is running clearly the 2nd best organized campaign next only to Conservative John Weston. Weston still has this by a country mile, but Wilson's fortunes are improving by the day.
08 09 17 Kevin
With the news tonight that the NDP has sacked their candidate it changes the race. The liberals have a core group of support. I don't see the conservatives gaining many of the now up for grabs NDP votes. If they stay home it goes conservative, if they vote then likely liberal. Blair for the greens is a long shot but anything is possible.
08 09 16 Amor de Gordos
Blair Wilson is finished. The Greens, in spite of (or perhaps because of) Wilson's support, are finished. The Liberals are finished. Despite a weak candidate, this riding is a clear Conservative gain.
08 09 16 Marco Ricci
As with St. John's South, I'm a little surprised to see Election Prediction make a prediction here so many weeks before Election Day, but the prediction is probably accurate. The Liberals have a base of support in this riding, and combined with the charismatic Blair Wilson they were able to win in 2006. However, for Blair Wilson to win again he probably had to stay a Liberal.
His sudden conversion to the Green Party probably handed this riding to the Conservatives and took it away from the Liberals since the close 2nd place Conservatives from last time now have the edge since they had the riding until Blair Wilson took it away.
Blair Wilson may be able to improve the Green Party vote and finish higher here than the Greens last time since he is the incumbent MP and because I think the NDP candidate is weaker than in 2006, but unless there is a massive surge to the Greens, he probably won't make it to Parliament.
08 09 13 Boy Waffle
I normally scoff at Green Party predictions on this website, but this is a very special case. Sure the new Liberal candidate (if and when he or she is ever nominated) will draw a (small but) significant number of votes away from Wilson, but the NDP have nominated a former Marijuana Party member as their candidate---and you gotta figure that this moronic move is going to seriously cut into their vote!
Let's say that the NDP only gets half as many votes as in 2006, and that most of the rest go to Wilson; then add in the votes that the Green Party got in 2006. There's ten thousand. Do you really think the Liberal brand alone is worth ten thousand votes in WV-SC-S2SC? (That's all the putative liberal candidate's got, as far as we can tell for now) I would'nt have said it was more than five thousand.
In summary, I think there will be less vote-splitting in 2008 than there was in 2006, because of the weak NDP candidate. [Note that there was less vote-splitting in 2006 than in 2004---i.e., that the only reason Wilson got elected in the first place is that a lot of Green and NDP voters in WV-SC-S2SC were willing to vote strategically for him.]
OK, so that's just my gut reaction: I realize that I pretty much pulled numbers out of thin air (what else are you supposed to do?), but the point is that I don't buy the arguments that lead almost everyone else to say this is definitely going Tory. Still TCTC, IMHO (at least until I have some numbers which aren't my own).
08 09 12 King of Kensington
Actually the Tory doesn't have to really gain votes at all. All that needs to happen is vote-splitting between the Liberal candidate and Blair Wilson. My feeling is most Liberal voters will go Liberal again, but Wilson will get the Green vote and pick up a few Blair Wilson personal votes. Easy Conservative victory.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Liberals and Greens are dividing a vote that isn't big enough. NDP will pull votes on the Sunshine Coast, allowing the Conservatives to keep their head down and pick up a seat.
08 09 10 Gregor Burton
Despite John Weston's previous gains, this riding is not ready to elect an overly-socially-conservative evangelical. The mayor of Squamish, Iain Sutherland, has virtually no chance of winning; he was a last-minute choice, and a poor one, at that. This presents Wilson as a more realistic option for many Liberal voters. I suspect that--especially on the Sunshine Coast, and in Powell River--Wilson will gain popularity for his Green kick; remember, this area contains a riding that the provincial Greens felt they had the best chance of winning back in 2001. Wilson will devour the centrist, left-of-centrist, and non-socially conservative vote, and take this riding.
08 09 09 binriso
First of all, the CPC barely won here in 04 and the Liberals came somewhat close in 1997 too against Reform. But the vote splitting is going to let the CPC win here, itd take a bad campaign for them to lose here again.
08 09 09 Al
This is not TCTC - this is an easy CPC win.
1) The Liberals do not yet even have a candidate
2) Look at the huge margins of victory that the right of centre vote had in 2004, 2000, and earlier.
3) The CPC is polling very, very strongly in BC
This is CPC for sure.
08 09 08 Fountainviewkid
Here is one district the Conservatives can easily pick up. Now that the established liberal has become Green Conservatives will win this one through ticket-splitting! End of story!
08 09 07 squishy
Fairly easy call, really. Even if Wilson had never been filleted by the Province last fall and tossed by the Liberals, he would have been in tough. John Weston, who narrowly lost to Wilson in 2006, took a page right out of Wilson's own playbook and has been working the riding ever since the last vote as MP-in-waiting, bringing cabinet ministers around and hitting the Chamber of Commerce/community gathering circuit. Now, with Wilson's implosion and resurfacing as a Green, added to the ‘Joe Who?’ factor of Ian Sutherland as the new Liberal candidate (supposedly there was a ‘star candidate’ to be parachuted in from outside, but he/she failed the greenlight committee; anybody know who it was?), the riding is almost certainly Weston's to lose. Sutherland is a known quantity in the Sea to Sky corridor part of the riding (and given his stormy two terms as mayor of Squamish, not all of it good) and at least a recognizable name in West Vancouver, but he's a virtual unknown in Powell River and the Sunshine Coast. The only way this riding doesn't switch back to the Tories is if the anti-Conservative vote manages to coalesce entirely around one candidate (Sutherland or Wilson) or if John Weston puts his foot in his mouth, then shoots himself in the foot. As it stands, Wilson's name recognition will probably draw enough support from the Liberals (and maybe even the NDP) to make it a cakewalk for Weston. Wilson will fight the NDP for third, and maybe win, but that's as close as he gets.
By the way, is there a prize for the best single-riding weird storyline? Disgraced Liberal incumbent becomes Canada's first Green MP, running against a stand-in for a would-be Liberal parachute candidate, plus the former leader of the BC Marijuana Party running for the NDP? I think we'd win hands down.
08 09 04 The Dude Abides
Blair Wilson as a Green Party MP will be a bigger asterisk in the footnotes of parliamentary history than Kim Campbell's premiership. With an election call, the Greens will still not have had a member of parliament. There is no chance of him being re-elected, despite the perennial fantasies of Green supporters. It'll be a few elections still before they actually have a member in the House as the result of a popular vote.
08 09 01
I think it is pretty self-evident.
I however would like to comment on who will end up in the second place.
I predict that Green Party will continue finish dead last behind the three major parties. I predict also that LPC will find someone on the right of GRP to appear like the government but they will fail miserably because of who their leader is.
08 09 01 R.O.
Over the years there has been a lot of speculation that bc would at some point elect the first green mp so I think this defection is really a bizarre move on there part. It somewhat reminds me of the Jim Jones pc mp defection to the then alliance party back in 2000 which in the end did not work out. and I think in the long run the green party would be better off if they had actually elected an mp instead as this one was kicked out of his own party and comes with significant baggage and has not done much during his time on parliament hill. Well the announcement did generate a lot of positive press in the national media. The numbers here point to trouble for the greens as the conservatives usually get at least 20000 votes here and greens only around 5000. so they need to gain a lot of votes but the liberals and ndp will still be running candidates here as well. And for a green candidate to get over 20000 votes would be almost unheard of.
08 09 01 binriso
If people didnt realize it, Blair Wilson was forced to resign from the Liberal Party over campaign finance irregularities and overspending. He was cleared of any wrongdoing by elections Canada.
So technically he is clean, although there are clearly many people who believe someone is guilty automatically when they are accused.
It looks bad from an image perspective, which probably hurts more than the actual charges.
Looking at the riding, this is one of top ridings outside of downtown Vancouver for the Liberal Party in the province in the last few elections, they usually score well above their provincial average. John Reynolds was the MP here for awhile for the CPC/CA/Reform but he came somewhat close to losing in 1997 and quite close in 2004. Its pretty clear he didnt have a whole lot of personal popularity because the CPC actually gained 1-2% last election. With Wilson over to the Greens, it looks like there isnt really much reason to vote NDP here, they will finish 4th for sure and probably lose a fair bit of votes to the Greens and Liberals. CPC will probably get around 30-35% again so if either the Liberals or Greens bleed alot to each other, one will win by a razor thin margin.
Most Likely though a CPC win by a few percentage points. Wilson does have about as much chance as May in her riding and hell have most of the Green support, some Liberal support and some support as the incumbent, probably not enough though.
08 08 31 Laurence Putnam
Will someone explain to me this Carole Taylor = Liberal hold idea? Yes, she's a household name, but I had no idea that she was so wildly popular.
Supposedly, if she parachutes in to be West Vancouver's MP, we're all supposed to be giddy as schoolgirls that the provincial Finance Minister would be so good as to represent us simpletons who are otherwise incapable of selecting a candidate from amongst ourselves.
Carole Taylor has no background or presence or history in West Vancouver. There's no way she's the Liberal's miracle woman in holding this riding. Especially with the vote split that Wilson-loyalist Liberals are going to cause.
Liberals have never seemed to figure out the North Shore. Again and again they try to impress us by parachuting in these ‘stars’ we should be grateful for - Iona Campagnolo, Warren Kinsella, now the talk of Carole Taylor.
It has never even occured to Liberals that they only times they ever win the North Shore its when they've gone with someone from the local community.
The Conservatives will most certainly win this, and Wilson will be locked in a fight with the NDP for 3rd place - from which he could emerge a winner if he proves able still to raise money, and gets enough publicity locally for being the ‘first green party mp’
West Vancouver has shown a significant open-mindedness to the Green Party brand in the past two provincial elections, and they have always done well on the Sunshine Coast as well.
Still, best case scenario for Wilson is 20% of the vote.
08 08 31 E. L. Smerl
A Green/Liberal split will hurt the Liberals here and possibly benefit the NDP since many Vancouver voters (who disliked Emerson's defection) may express their disgust with these shenanigans by voting NDP or staying home.
So this seems like a Conservative pickup for sure unless the NDP or Liberals find some star to parachute in - seems unlikely.
The only impact of a Green MP now will be to bolster Elizabeth May's case to be in the TV debates. Which will only spread the Green/Liberal/NDP vote split nationwide and help Harper more, in this author's own opinion.
First Past the Post does not fit a five party system, no way, no how. We have a limited time to get rid of it before it destroys the country itself.
08 08 30 PY
Well, it turns out that Blair Wilson has ?signed on? with the Greens. But his stint as the first Green MP might end up being short-lived should Harper follow through and call the election. However, the Greens already had a candidate nominated in James Stephenson. While this is far from a great ?free agent signing,? I wouldn't be surprised if Stephenson and his followers were pissed off right now. And if that's so, they may just join the chorus of constituents who feel the same about Wilson. In order for him to stand a chance, May is going to have to deploy considerable resources into the riding, but she's already fighting a war on two fronts: herself versus Peter MacKay in Central Nova and former BC Green leader Adriane Carr versus Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre. This seems like an extremely long shot bet to me if she decides to go to bat for Wilson too.
08 08 30 King of Kensington
Tory pickup. There is no way this riding is going to vote for the disgraced Blair Wilson (who almost certainly only became a Green because the Libs wouldn't take him back!) All he'll do is cut into the Liberal vote and allow the Tories to easily take it.
Funny how Elizabeth May who claims that getting rid of Harper at all costs is more important than partisan politics has essentially given the Tories a seat!
08 08 30
well, with blair wilson moving to the greens this riding is now too close to call. if the liberals don't run taylor this will be a cpc pickup for sure.
08 08 30 Matt Wadsworth
As unpopular as Blair Wilson has become, he still commands some support in the riding. Now that he is the Green Party's first representative, I suspect that he will draw enough votes into a Green/Liberal split that will add up to a solid Conservative victory. As the last two elections demonstrate, it doesn't take much of a drain on Liberal votes to result in a Conservative victory within the wacky boundaries of this riding. Of course, campaigns matter and we're not there yet, so things may yet change. Though, I'm not counting on it.
08 08 30 rebel
Blair Wilson's defection to the Green's makes this riding the most likely pick-up for the Conservatives in Canada. Both Ipsos-Reid and Decima has the Conservatives running well in BC already. Wilson running as a Green is icing on this cake.
08 08 30 Nick J Boragina
Holy moses, stop the presses. The Greens have an MP.
Brian Wilson crossed the floor today. While it might not mean all that much in the ?great scheme of things? it means that the greens have a good shot at being included in the leaders debate, and with the party already polling ahead of the bloc, it means they could win seats. If they win seats, this might well be one of them, but that would even be a hard race, but its possible.
08 08 30 R.D.
Blair Wilson is running again as a Green. This will only split the Liberal vote and ensure a Conservative victory.
08 08 13 tikki barber
word is the liberals will run carole taylor here, if this is true she should be able to win this seat. her only problem will be a possible blair wilson run as an independent (or a green, which has been rumored).
08 03 24 R.O.
Well the reality is Blair Wilson is in some trouble here the way I look at it he has 2 problems first one being he is currently sitting as an independent liberal mp and if he runs as an independent in this traditionally conservative riding he is done mean other than last election it has almost never been liberal and was even the home riding of high profile conservative mp John Reynolds. All the bad press over his elections Canada troubles combined with a good conservative candidate in John Weston will be too much. His second problem is the liberals are not as popular in bc as they were when he first got elected even if he returns to them somehow they are trailing the cpc in the polls in this province and the recent by-election in Vancouver Quadra indicated there support has not grown here.
08 02 10 rebel
While public opinion polls vary nationally, most have shown a distinct trend to the Conservatives in British Columbia compared with 2004 and 2006.
This riding should be the first in the province to go from Liberal to Conservative and my assumption for the next campaign is that the Conservatives will forge most of their gains from Quebec and BC...with the potential for failure to win a majority coming from Ontario.
08 12 30 A.S.
Believe it or not, this seat could still be winnable for the Liberals--all it might take is a candidate of the stature of Ted Nebbeling, and Blair Wilson's misdeeds would be forgiven. Though whimsically speaking, imagine if Wilson lost his candidacy midelection, and the Liberal machine responded by doing a ‘Central Nova’--maybe with an even greater likelihood of Green victory here...
08 12 30 Left Coast
Although the Lions Gate bridge reminds one of the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, West Vancouver with its mix of nouveau riche wealth in monster homes and reactionary Colonel Blimp Brits is more akin to the Republican-voting oceanfront suburbs of Orange County than to the ultraliberal Marin County. Blair Wilson only took this by a narrow margin last time and with his scandal, this should go back to the Conservatives.
07 12 16 binriso
You know this might have been a good place for Adrianne Carr to run. The Greens managed 10% here in 04 and could stand to do well because of Wilsons legal problems and the fact that she ran here provincially and did quite well twice(or at least Powell River Sunshine Coast was where she ran). This wouldve been the best chance for her to win in BC but there was a very small chance of that no matter what riding she ran in. Even though the CPC might lose some seats in BC (Kingsway for sure, maybe Kamloops, Pitt Meadows and Fleetwood Port Kells too) CPC probably win it here, I mean their candidate even gained a point over what John Reynolds managed in 04 even though he lost in 06. And the same guy is running this time. Probably wont be by a whole lot but a couple thousand votes or a bit more.
07 11 14 T.V.
I'm inclined to believe that this seat will probably go Tory. If the election isn't for a while and Wilson is exonerated, he will probably hold on. At this point, though, the Liberals don't even know if he will be their candidate or not. If so, his scandal will depress the vote enough for the Tory to win comfortably. If he doesn't run, the Liberals will have to scramble to find a new candidate. If they miraculously find a star, they'll win, but if not they'll have a very hard time.
07 11 11 binriso
CPC wins now comfortably it seems. I think that all 3 parties will make a few gains mostly at the expense of the Liberals here and it will be enough to put the CPC over the top.
07 10 29 Laurence Putnam
Wilson had branded himself well enough that this was his to lose - however, I think he has lost it.
On one hand, its important to note that most scandals can be relied upon to blow over, and over the long term, one event like recent events usually isn't enough to completely turn the seat. The allegations themselves don't necessarily mean the seat is lost.
On the other hand, this isn't your typical riding. Here we have a rookie MP who won by less than a thousand votes, now (if he runs again) running for a very weakened Dion-led Liberal party. If it isn't Wilson again, the incumbency edge is gone.
The 60% of the riding that encompasses the ‘Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky’ part of the riding, is for the most part working class and rural small town enough that the Wilson scandal will go over badly.
The 40% that is the West Vancouver part, which is the part of the riding that was Wilson's base, will dump him unceremoniously for this black eye on the community.
West Vancouver has an eerily collective approach to its local politics - one observes how Mayor Pat Boname won the 1996 election only to place fourth in the 1999 election. Mayor Ron Wood was then the two-term Mayor who was dumped by a 2-1 margin in 2005 over a development issue.
I expect Wilson will meet a similar fate. At the same time, I wouldn't say his career is over for good. Just for now.
07 10 29 Al R
Blair Wilson is suffering. He has resigned from the Liberal caucus because of substantial allegations of electoral fraud and also allegations that he lied about his successes in business and cheated his in-laws. If he runs again the Conservatives will win for sure. If not it is still likely the Conservatives (polling high in BC) will pick this seat up as there will be no incumbency factor.
07 10 29 V.
With allegations that Blair Wilson didn't disclose all of his expenses during the last election campaign, and him 'resigning' from the liberal caucus, that makes the race wide open.
07 10 29 King of Kensington
With Blair Wilson's spending scandal I'll give the Tories the definite edge here but it's a little too early to call it. The NDP and Greens both play a ‘wild card’ role that could ultimately determine the winner.
I imagine a large Green vote ultimately hurts the Liberals more than the Tories, especially given Elizabeth May's relationship with Dion. The larger the Green vote, the worse for Wilson.
Then again, the NDP is running an unconventional candidate in Dana Larsen, an opponent of the drug war and former member of the Marijuana Party. I don't know how well this well play in the more working class towns in the riding which voted Reform in the Chretien years but have come back to the NDP. If they move away NDP this time, I think they're more likely to go Tory than Liberal. Then again Larsen could take a lot of the Green vote and increase the NDP vote somewhat in West Van.
Maybe the Tories will pressure the local candidate to step aside for David Emerson here if he has any desire to stay in electoral politics. After all his chances are much much greater in West Van (filled with vulgar nouveau riche types and some old Colonel Blimp Brits) than in his home riding of Quadra. West Van may have a few movie industry types in its population but on the whole it has more in common with the ‘OC’ than it does with Beverly Hills.
07 10 29 Buhay
Not sure yet who's going to win this riding but the news about the current Lib MP's overspending during the last election is not going to go over well.
Blair didn't win with too many votes last time and this kind of revelation (by former staff and family to boot) means that incumbency, if he manages to stay in the party, is going to be a detriment not an advantage.
I know BC is home to premiers who drink and drive and politicians who start affairs with other MLAs - and still get elected, but this kind of revelation will bring some of those Lib voters to the NDP and thus elect the Tory.
07 10 29 Rebel
Undoubtedly several will post about the resignation of Blair Wilson from the Liberal caucus. Several news articles suggest a number of people concerned with alleged expense irregularities and payments of cash to avoid reporting etc. There may also be some infighting or factionalism within the Liberal riding association or, in any event, members of its campaign team.
No riding is blase about suggestions like this but West Vancouver is the kind of community that might look at them (if founded) as very ungentlemanly and extract a high price.
Perhaps our BC-based writers might have more detail or nuance on what is going on...
07 10 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A very interesting situation. Wilson has quit the Liberal caucus due to some electoral spending irregularities. Although he is adamant about his innocence and appears to be cooperating with the investigation fully, this could be bad news for his re-election chances. Under the assumption that he will be completely cleared, any perception that he was involved will not go over well with some of the electorate. This could make a big difference in a close race that is this riding. Another thing that won't be helping is loss of votes to the NDP and Green parties (whose vote collapsed in 2006).
07 10 29 Ancastarian
Blair Wilson is finished. Today's election's Canada Scandal ( and his resignation from the Liberal Party all but signals his defeat. These days the accusation is nearly as bad as guilt. This little scandal is enough to drive this to the Conservative banner. Chalk up a Vancouver seat to the Tories.
07 10 28 TC
Well Blair Wilson's dirty laundry exploded all over the pages of the October 28, 2007 edition of The Province and some of the allegations are pretty damning. Draw your own conclusions but I think his ship is sunk, Weston will defeat him if Wilson runs again.
07 05 10 British Columbian
After losing by a slim margin in 2004 to incumbent John Reynolds, Wilson managed to win by a slim margin in the last election despite a Conservative victory nationally. Now Blair Wilson has the incumbency advantage, having established himself as an effective member of parliament.
If a collapsed green and NDP vote helped Blair win in 2006, it will help him again. Clearly he represents the best strategic vote for anti-Conservative voters. The Liberals are taking steps to displace the NDP as the best viable alternative for Green voters. Meanwhile, the NDP is way down in BC; the latest Ipsos-Reid poll has them at almost half their 2006 support (15% vs. 28.6%), which is not exactly within the margin of error. Federal NDP votes don’t generally swing to the Tories. And the Conservatives are running the same candidate instead of opting for a more moderate, or at least a more popular one. Balir Wilson, on the other hand, resonates well in the riding as a fiscally-conservative Liberal.
This will be another fairly close election, but not as close as the last two. The Liberals with Blair Wilson will hold WV-SC-S2SC.
07 04 15 Steve L.
John Weston came reasonably close last time, within 1000 votes. but Blair Wilson proved to be a strong MP, on certain local issues (not the least of which is the Eagle Ridge Bluffs road thingy, which he spoke out against the BC Liberals on). John Weston will need to put up a very locally focused campaign here to improve his odds, and i'm not entirely certain if he's the kinda guy for such a thing. but then, it was close last time...
07 03 24 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this one for the Tories yet. Blair Wilson does have strong support on the Sunshine Coast, never mind it was the Sea to Sky Corridor which put him over the top and this area despite being largely rural is very Liberal. It is much like the ski resorts in the Mountain West of the US which go Democrat despite being in strongly Republican states. West Vancouver certainly leans Tory, but if John Weston is chosen again, his hard right social views could hamper him there. He needs at least 55% in West Vancouver to guarantee taking this riding and I doubt he could get that. The other candidate from the former Progressive Conservatives probably has a better shot as his views are more reflective of the centre-right views in West Vancouver.
07 03 21 western_tory
If there was one Liberal riding going Conservative this was it. The only reason the liberals won here in 2006 was the NDP and Green vote in a section of the riding collapsed and went Liberal. Furthermore, the Liberals perceived strong area is West Vancouver but the CPC increased there vote here in 2006. The Conservatives lost this riding in 2006 with more than they won it with in 2004. Current polling points to a CPC pickup.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster