Prediction Changed
4:39 PM 02/06/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Algoma-Manitoulin (100%)
Michael A. Brown

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 N~Jam101
I feel Brown will win again but the NDP may do a bit better than last time.
The NDP could have had a chance if their overall campaign had been more effective but Hampton seemed too focused on his current members. I believe this riding was NDP during the Rae government and maybe a term afterwards under Bud Wildman. Wasn't Wildman a cabinet minister? Michael Brown could be a cabinet minister but being speaker doesn't hurt either.
07 10 01 erb
the northern part of the riding, is and will remain a NDP stronghold, with the exception of Chapleau.Unfortunetly, the southern part of the riding, elliot lake, espanola and the island, may continue to go with the liberals. I still beleive that it will be close, but the edge to the NDP
07 09 30 A.S.
'Other then Bob Rae, has the NDP ever won this riding?'
Federally, yes, it's been historically Liberal. Provincially, however, this seat only goes back to 1999, when provincial and federal boundaries were made coterminous. Before that, it was in large part two provincial seats: Algoma, and Algoma-Manitoulin. The former was a NDP stronghold; the latter was a Tory stronghold pre-Mike Brown. Indeed, the NDP might even have won, or come perilously close to winning, within these boundaries in the 1987 Peterson Liberal landslide!
07 09 29 DL
Actually Algoma does not have as much of a Liberal history as some people think. The NDP won the provincial riding of Algoma with Bud Wildman in 1975, 1977, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1990 and 1995. Then Wildman retired and the ridings of Algoma and Algoma-Manitoulin were merged and the Liberal won that seat in 1999 and 2003 - but it is worth noting that the identical federal riding of Algoma-Manitoulin went Liberal over NDP by a very, very narrow margin last year - I think that if the Liberal vote provincewide is around 40% and the NDP vote is 19-20% (as seem likely to me) - the riding becomes too close to call.
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
Other then Bob Rae, has the NDP ever won this riding? Maybe, but the point is it’s historically a Liberal riding. Federally this was the home riding for Lester B Pearson, the Prime Minister for who as an airport named after him in the province. Looking just at the results from the last election – a Liberal sweep – and at the recent poll numbers across the province – a Liberal sweep – and it becomes obvious who will win.
07 09 16 A.S.
So, that's why Mike Brown's MPPdom seemed so innocuous: it was all a prelude to his becoming Speaker! Which definitely hands him some kind of advantage, or at least some kind of ‘stature’--but don't be so sure about his seat being solid Liberal; after all, over a 20-year parliamentary career, he's never been elected or reelected with a majority. (Is that verging on some kind of record?) Also remember that, nominally speaking, this is a merger of the pre-'99 provincial seats of Algoma and Algoma-Manitoulin; the latter was Brown's (though PC before Brown), but the former belonged to NDPer (and acting leader post-Rae) Bud Wildman. And the Wildman legacy persisted in the NDP doing better here in both '99 and '03 than in any seat it did not already hold or where an incumbent wasn't running. (Indeed, the Grit-NDP margin here in '03 was narrower here than in the Soo's Orazietti/Martin race!) Oh, sure, it was Mike Pearson's seat federally--but that hasn't prevented the NDP coming dangerously close *there* recently, either. So, if we're to believe that the Grits are losing ground in the North, all that could possible prevent Algoma-Manitoulin from being a top NDP target is some sort of respect for Mike Brown's Speakerdom...
07 09 11 neooite
If the Liberals lose this one than they might as well pack it in. It has been Liberal federally since Confederation and Brown has been there for a long time. Plus, he is pretty respected and given that this is the most rural riding in the province, name recognition and Brown's popularity make this a near Liberal lock.
07 05 13 Ryan N
As Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Brown has that, along with the incumbent advantage. There's no way that he's going to lose his seat. Chalk this one up to the Liberals.
07 05 13 J.B.
Liberal HOLD.Both federally and provincially, this riding tends to vote Liberal. Brown won by very comfortable margins, both in '99 and '03. As Speaker of the House, he hasn't really done anything wrong to warrant constituents to get rid of him.
07 05 10 free_thinker
This will be most certainly a Liberal hold. Mike Brown was re-elected last time with a solid margin and his appointment as Speaker will only help to widen that margin. Liberal by 5000 votes.

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