Prediction Changed
5:22 PM 09/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Brampton West
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Brampton West-Mississauga (73.6%)
Vic Dhillon
Brampton Centre (26.4%)
Linda Jeffrey

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 10 AT
This is going to be close.
Dhillon has not been a very good MPP. And the overall Tory campaign has been horrible. However, the difference between this and the last election is Mark Beckles. The harsh, cold blooded conservative title can not and doesn't seem to be sticking to Mark Beckles.
His background - makes him the ideal PC Candidate in the GTA. It will be a question of whether enough voters in the newer sub divisions have seen Mark as of yet. If he enough exposure up in the Sandalwood/heart lake areas - he can steal a lot of Liberals votes.
The South Asian vote will go heavily to Dhillon. Causasian voters split. Asian voters split. It will come down to black voters. Traditional Liberals vs. the Former President of the Nelson Mandela Foundation.
Calling a Mark Beckles Victory by approx 1,500 votes
07 10 09 T.V.
This will definitely be going Liberal, and I think a PC prediction is quite flawed. Mark Beckles is a strong candidate, but he doesn't have nearly the profile of Tony Clement, who Dhillon easily beat last time. With the Tories now polling below their results in Election 03, there's no way they'll pick this up.
07 10 09 binriso
Despite Vic Dhillon being called a nobody by some, he beat Tony Clement in 03 by almost 3000 votes. Now I know redistribution hurts him alot here but there has been some growth, new immigrants and so on which all helps the Liberal cause. And of course, everyones favorite (well every non-PCs favorite) election issue of faith based funding clearly hurt them here, in a seat they should have won. Not to mention incumbent advantage too, what little that counts for. A Liberal win by more than a squeaker but only about 1500 votes or so.
07 10 07 Old Willowdaler
King (AKA Al Waxman:) I think I am in agreement with you on almost all the ridings so as much as I hate to go against you here going to go with my prediction and Nick J's and a bare liberal win. I really don't think despite numerous postings to the contrary that the ‘FREE VOTE’ will do the trick to win back segments of the Tory party. Do agree with yuo though for the PC's to go Flaherty type would be a disaster not only for them but for Ontario. I know its a common belief that you want to decimate your opposition but the 93 election proved to All Grits and old type PC's the danger of that and while we can live with one another neither the old Progressive Wing of the PC's or us Grits can live with a Flaherty or Harper so I hope this loss by Tory gets chalked upto his bad policy move and not a dismissal of Red Tory polices
07 10 07 King of Kensington
I'll take a stab at this and call it for the PC's. They are running a strong very Red Tory candidate and the Liberal here is a nobody; the redistributed results also gave it to the Tories. Since John Tory won't be the leader for much longer, perhaps Mark Beckles would be an interesting choice as Tory leader who could potentially make inroads in the GTA. Unless they conclude Red Toryism is an electoral disaster and decide to pick some Jim Flaherty type as leader.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
Biggest problem this seat faces in going by the PC's--- surprise surprise funding. As one of the earlier posters pointed out the heart of Brampton Bill's seat is still WASP and as with most smaller centres Davis decision in 85 to extending catholic funding was like a lead ballon -Tory's further plans are a nail in the PC coffin here. This seat really sure have been back in the PC column and had it not been for John Tory's decision and subsequent flip flop I think PC vote would have approached 50%. This time around I predict that Dillion squeaks by with say 1-3% margin -Very close to say the least and Mr. Beckles can thank John TOry personally for not taking a seat in QP as he likely should have been the victor here
07 09 19 Marshall Howard Bader
Mark Beckles who looks like Denzel Washington is about as red as a Red Tory can be. Given that this is Bill Davis' former riding this will help him. He is the former President of the Nelson Mandela Children's Foundation. This guy is a dream candidate. He is up against an unknown Liberal MPP and NDP candidate.
07 09 14 A.S.
Don't judge Tony Clement too harshly on his '04 federal loss; 'Steve' Harper and the whole Reform/Alliance West-Wants-In trip probably did more to rob him of the win (and Clement still managed the best CPC result among seats wholly within Halton/Peel). But beyond anything Clement, the main reason for the notional PC plurality is that the seat now contains the old city of Brampton--Bill Davis's heartland--virtually in its entirety. Trouble is, WASPy Old Brampton's being overwhelmed by all the suburban growth and the demographics it brings--but give John Tory credit for offering, in Mark Beckles, a candidate that matches vintage Clement (or Davis) in exuding future-cabinet star power. But can he *win*, that's another matter--and it's not his fault if he can't...<
07 09 13 Andrew Cox
PC Pick up.
1) I find Peel region to be very difficult for prognostication, especially the farther north and west one gets, where the turnover between elections is dramatic. Demographic change just doesn't get more dramatic than Brampton West, where more than 25% of the riding voters weren't here in 2003. So take all this with a grain of salt. None of us know how this seat will vote. But that's why we have elections and don't just have pundits crown the new Premier.
2) The last tilt saw Vic Dhillon unseat the high-profile Tony Clement. The conventional wisdom is that Dhillon was simply swept into office on a tide of anti-PC anger and was a fluke. However, Clement's failure to unseat Coleen Beaumier in the 2004 federal election tells me Clement may deserve more of the blame for his loss than Conventional Wisdom dictates.
3) Brampton is no longer the small white-bread bedroom community of Bill Davis' era. Its now a sprawling, multi-ethnic city. The demographics of the area are heavily South Asian. Dhillon is far better known among South Asian voters of this area than in the mainstream media.
4) All that said, my gut keeps telling me that this riding will go PC. There are a couple lingering points. John Tory will throw resources here out of an atavistic need to please his mentor, Bill Davis, by recapturing Brampton. It feels like the most winnable seat in Peel region for the PCs. The results in the redistributed riding are also interesting.
5) But again, this is just gut. I could see Dhillon winning by 5,000 and not be shocked.
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
I?m going to do something I don?t do often, and disagree with M.Lunn.
This riding is the largest (population wise) in the province, and it?s sister federal riding, is the largest in the country, both by wide margins. It?s only 2007 remember as well, by the next election who knows how many people this riding will have. Regardless, it?s this election we are talking about. And in this election it?s the growth that will be the main issue. The most mobile voters are Liberal voters. I?d say that most of the newcomers are from Toronto, people who wanted to get out of the city, and that a large portion of them are Liberals. Some of the newcomers are bound to be immigrants, who also traditionally vote Liberal. While redistribution might have had the Tories win here in 2003, it?s 2007, and there are many more voters now. While I expect the PC Party to get more, in terms of raw vote, then it would have got redistributed in 2003, I expect the Liberals to do even better, and jump into first place. I look at this riding, and I?m seeing red.
PS. I just want to add that Bob is out to lunch if he thinks that Brampton West is a Liberal Stronghold. It has been anything but, in fact, it is a historic Tory stronghold.
07 08 21 George M.
Ian points out that Linda Jeffrey from Brampton-Centre has demonstrated a ?fondness? for Mark Beckles.
True statement, BUT, Beckles has also publicly indicated his ?support? (if I may use that term) for Jeffrey.
In Brampton-West, probably the closest race in Brampton, but I suspect it will remain Liberal.
07 08 10 Bob
Brampton West has been one of many Liberal strongholds in the Peel region. There is little that the other posters have wrote that would indicate a thousands of hardcore Liberals would go Conservative. A hospital opening with fewer beds than announced? I'm sure that the opening of a local hospital is acceptable in itself (which is near opening by the way). A political newcomer against an experienced incumbent? You guys have to be kidding. Dhillon in a comfortable majority (7500 give or take).
07 07 26 The Jackal
The rest of Peel may go red but I'm certain this riding will go blue as the PC's have strong candidate going up against a weak incumbent.
07 07 03 Ian Robertson
Last campaign Vic Dhillon rode the wave of a strong central campaign and was helped by a general distaste for the Conservative government of the day. Things will be more difficult this time. John Tory has a broader appeal especially to soft liberal voters and McGuinty has a lot of baggage he needs to shed before election day.
As a previous post noted, Dhillon is basically unknown in the riding and the new Conservative candidate has been quick to impress, already forming strong relationships with the Mayor and other senior city councilors. I've been to a lot of city events and Beckles seems to be everywhere, already behaving like the incumbent. Even Liberal Linda Jeffrey in the next riding over has publicly expressed her fondness of Beckles at community gatherings.
Personalities aside, this campaign will be fought over two local issues: First, a recent announcement that the new hospital will open with fewer beds than initially promised has caused concern as well as the fact that Brampton may have to cover escalating costs through additional property taxes. Second, Brampton?s large immigrant population is growing increasingly concerned about the ongoing problems skilled immigrants have in finding full employment. Both of these were key part of the Liberal?s last campaign that helped them win this riding. If they can convince voters that there is a good reason why they have broken these promises then they will have a chance. Like a lot of 905 ridings, this one will depend on McGuinty?s ability to repair his image and win back disillusioned voters. There is a lot to be decided in the next 100 days.
07 06 18 K.S.
This will be an interesting riding to watch. Under the new boundaries this would have gone conservative in 2003. However, there has been explosive growth in this riding since. Most of the growth comes from communities that are not generally conservative voters. The Liberal incumbent is one of the Liberals weakest MPP's. He is invisible in the riding and 9 out of 10 people would not be able remeber his name let alone know who he is. The PC's have nominated a great candidate Mark Beckles. He is exceptionally well spoken and a very accomplished person. Most recently he was the CEO of the Nelson Mandella Childrens Fund. Running against such a strong contender, the only way Vic Dhillon holds onto this seat is in a Liberal wave which we all know is not coming given the Liberals record in office. This one will be close but in the end, it will go PC.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Under the re-adjusted boundaries, the PCs would have taken this. While part of that may have been due to Tony Clement's incumbency, that will easily be cancelled out by the fact the Liberals have a much smaller lead over the Tories this time around.

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