Prediction Changed
10:59 PM 05/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Don Valley West
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Don Valley West (100%)
Hon Kathleen O. Wynne

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO for the Kathleen Wynne Campaign.

07 10 10 luigievang
This riding has become a microcosm of the John Tory campaign. A close race leaning towards Mr. Tory's election is now being considered a safe Liberal seat for Ms. Wynne. I don't understand what the PC braintrust was thinking throughout this campaign, but it was theirs to lose and they sure did a good job of doing it. Mr. Tory should've stayed in the true blue seat he had going into the election instead of going into a cabinet minister's riding and he should never had brought up the school-funding issue either. The people who advised him during this election campaign completely misread the voters and killed their chances right from the beginning. All Mr. Tory had to do was remind the voters of McGuinty's lackluster record and broken promises and he'd at least have a shot at a minority government. Now, thanks to the 'Broken Blue Machine', Mr. Tory's political career may be over.
07 10 09 MH
With the latest polls indicating that the PCs have made little or no headway provincially since John Tory's change of policy on the funding of religious schools, the only thing that can now save his campaign in DVW is a sympathy vote of the kind that gave Vancouver Quadra to John Turner in the 1984 federal election, beating the PC incumbent. Will it happen in DVW in 2007? It doesn't seem likely, but then neither did Mr. Turner's victory in 1984. Sometimes major-party leaders get a break even if their campaigns have been calamitously bad, like Mr. Turner's in 1984 and Mr. Tory's this year. On the other hand, Kim Campbell didn't win her seat in 1993.
07 10 08 Old Willowdaler
I guess maybe John Tory was right to pick this seat. If he could not win it it also meant he was not going to be Premier and I doubt he wants to put in 4 more years. This election was determined by one policy plank of one party. I think Stephane Dion and Steven Harper should look closely at what happened here and think long and hard. I respectfully suggest that it should NOT be seen as a rejection of Red Toryism. Mr. Tory thought he could drive a wedge between the ‘ethnic’ vote with this policy plank and got hoisted with his own petard.
07 10 08 Derek Robert Lipman
Tory chose not to run in his own riding against George Smitherman because the Health minister was perceived as 'unbeatable'. Wynne was (insultingly) viewed as easy prey. As it turns out, Wynne has been a far tougher challenge than the Conservative brain-trust expected. Using the parachute logic, Tory would have been better off to float into Willowdale to challenge the shaky David Zimmer.
In a sense, Tory is a bit of an unfortunate character in this campaign. The Mike Harris legacy, along with 'Common Sense' stalwarts still involved in the party will continue to haunt the PC's, much like the ghost of Bob Rae has done to the NDP. Until people in the PC party accept that neo-conservatism has been an utter failure, and a major departure from the ‘moderate’ days of the Big Blue Machine, their candidates will continue to be turned away in Toronto. The far-right ideologues must be relegated to a distant role before this party can rebuild.
If John Tory is defeated, the party will likely seek a more ideologically conservative leader to replace him. This would play right into the hands of McGuinty, who will be happy to traverse the middle ground, scooping up 'moderate' voters of every persuasion.
07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
Alright. Now I just look foolish. I’ve changed my prediction 3 times in this riding, but now I’m going to have to do it again. John Tory will indeed lose his seat. I should have stuck to my original impression here. I say this not because that unrealistic poll that shows him a billion points behind, but because of the fact that he is doing so poorly across the province and I question weather he wants to win this seat. If he gets less province-wide votes then Ernie Eves did, then people will be calling for his head before ballot counting is finished. Tory might want to be in a situation where he does not even have a seat so he can make for a quick exit. I just cant see the second liberal tide missing this riding. Liberals from across the city would love to defeat Tory just as much as disgruntled PCers would. EPP is right calling this one for the Liberals. On e-day they’ll win.
07 10 07 Orleans Voter
This article from today mentions that since John Tory is spending time in his own riding in the final days of the campaign, he must face a tough competition there:
07 10 06 Kevin F
I think Kathleen will carry this riding...though I do not live there, based on a COMPAS poll that is run by conservative people, I would think that this riding is out of John Torys hand especially seeing as though in 2003, the PC's weren't even close. They lost by a landslide.
07 10 06 Orleans Voter
Even Tory insiders are admitting now that it will be difficult for Tory to win this seat, so I would call it for the Liberals. New article from today says:
‘One frustrated Conservative member said it will take a ‘miracle’ for Tory -- who also has to worry about a difficult battle against Education Minister Kathleen Wynne in his hand-picked riding of Don Valley West -- to win his seat, let alone become premier.’
07 10 05 MH
It certainly looks as though the PC provincial campaign has fallen flat and that the Liberals will retain office, but I'm still not completely convinced that Kathleen Wynne will win Don Valley West. This afternoon I drove along Broadway Avenue and Brentcliffe from Bayview to Eglinton, and the latest sign count is Tory 18, Wynne 18. That's the closest it has been in three weeks. Whether this has larger significance I don't know, but it certainly suggests that both sides are giving DVW their best shot. I think this race will come down to who can pull the vote most effectively on election day.
07 10 05 EB
While this suspense is fun, I think it is well past the time to declare Tory defeated in DVW. The polls show it, the local papers predict it, the people know it. Tory picked the wrong issue (separate school funding) to run against the current Minister of Education and his flip-flop on Monday, despite the Tory spinners claim, is not at all helpful. Saying it will be a free vote, but I still support it has just as much weight on his party as saying I'm the leader and you will vote this way. I imagine very few PC MPPs are so uninterested in getting into cabinet that they would vote against an issue so apparently important to their leader. Therefore, Tory will not only lose the election, but he will also lose his seat, his leadership, and potentially the kitchen sink if his party continues its current death spiral!
07 10 04 TF
Just when you thought he could not screw it up more then he already had, John Tory went and went back on Faith Based Schools and said he would allow a free vote! Within 2 days, new polls showed him down another 3 percent. Conservative voters in this riding are going to be reluctant. I imagine that some of them will just stay home on election day. The Liberals are going to win a majority and Kathleen Wynne is going to win this riding. THAT is EMBARRASSING.
07 10 04 B.W.
Kathleen Wynne straight victory. Look at Tory's attempt to keep his job at today's star. Leadership doubts are rising, (its also the centre of his campaign). He's going to lose his seat and his job!
07 10 04 LF
I know some Liberal insiders who don't believe the COMPAS poll for a minute. COMPAS is well known to be Tory-friendly and derided by other pollsters. It's believed there might even be an ulterior motive to publishing those results, namely to make Liberal supporters complacent and serve as a wakeup call to Conservatives. I personally wouldn't put it past COMPAS to have called only Liberal-friendly polls in the riding.
Having said that, these insiders believe that Wynne is a couple of percentage points ahead, but that it will be tight down to the wire.
07 10 03 J.C.
Stick a fork in Tory he's done, there is simply no way he's going to recover from a 15 percent deficit in one week, The rest of this election is now going to focus on why he decided to flop all over the place on faith-based funding. Wynne is going to be the dinosaur slayer and Tory is going to find himself out of a job.
07 10 02 MH
From the Globe and Mail, 2 Oct. (web edition):
‘The battle for Don Valley West is poised to be the marquee showdown of the 2007 Ontario election, and analysts say Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory may have picked a fight he cannot win.
The traditionally Conservative stronghold of rich and poor alike, where visible minorities account for 40 per cent of the population, is home to the dominant theme of the campaign: public education.’
Parkhurst Boulevard had 12 Wynne and 6 Tory signs yesterday, a change from 9 and 6 two weeks ago. Today I went along the entire length of Bessborough. The tally I came up with was Wynne 14, Tory 12, and Green 1. With a week left in the campaign I think DVW is still TCTC, but unless Mr. Tory gets a significant boost in this constituency from allowing a free vote on the religious-funding issue, he is probably headed for defeat. It is quite possible that the Greens' Adrian Walker will finish ahead of the NDP's Mike Kenny, whose campaign has so far been invisible.
07 10 02 JH
I'm helping a bit with the Wynne campaign, so keep that in mind. But voters in the Thorncliffe neighbourhood are predominantly Liberal and, at least in the poll closest to me, Tory doesn't seem to have a chance (interestingly, his signage is more visible than his supporters). There does seem to be a fair amount of visible support for the Green candidate. Definitely the NDP is nowhere to be found, as others have said.
In 2003 Wynne took this riding by almost 6,100 votes. I haven't seen anything in the riding that makes me think that Tory will even get within 3,000.
07 10 02 Observer
I'll change my prediction from 07-05-09. I really like John Tory, but this campaign has been a disaster.
07 10 01 MH
Time will tell, but Mr. Tory may just have won this seat by climbing down from his extreme position on funding religious schools. The emphasis is on 'may'. Much depends on how the swing voters in DVW interpret the announcement, whether they will feel reassured or whether they will fear that Mr. Tory has made only a tactical retreat. With eight days of campaigning left, I think this is still TCTC.
In the meantime, Parkhurst Boulevard, on which the sign count was 9 Wynne, 6 Tory when I first drove along it two weeks ago, now has 12 Wynne and 6 Tory signs.
07 10 01 binriso
Tory just essentially flip flopped on the major issue of the campaign. He says MPP's can have a free vote now on the faith based schools funding, when just a little while ago he said the exact opposite. Any personal popularity he enjoyed over McGuinty is lost. They’re both liars now. Tory is done. Wynne for the win, the NDP and greens will win only about 5% each with Wynne at 45-50% most likely.
07 10 01 Stevo
No doubt that John Tory is in big big trouble. I would caution other commentators here against putting too much weight into a single riding snapshot poll. I recall a poll done in Newmarket a week or two before the 2004 federal election that showed Belinda Stronach (then running as a Conservative) steamrolling over her Liberal opponent 53% to 30%. When the results came in she barely eked out a win with 800 votes over her opponent.
That said, if Tory does lose his own riding, I can't see him staying on. The Conservatives may have learned a hard lesson here - better to elect a leader that can clearly differentiate himself from the Liberals (on issues other than his contentious religious schools funding plan) rather than one who hugs the centre on almost every issue. That isn't to say they have to go as far as another Mike Harris type, but a little more meat-and-potatoes (as opposed to Toronto vegan) probably wouldn't hurt.
Interestingly, a John Tory loss here will probably mean that David Shiner likewise loses in Willowdale. Even though Shiner probably has a better shot at this point than his leader, you can expect campaign resources and volunteers in the 416 to flood into DVW in a bid to save their leader.
07 10 01 binriso
Heh, that poll is actually a decent sample too 333 people in DVW. If it was true, then compared to 03(but using these boundaries), Liberals would be up 1-2%, PC's down 3-4%, NDP about the same and Greens up about 2-3%(and into 3rd place). Not only would Tory not win his riding, hed do worse than 03.
Poll numbers were: Wynne 52% Tory 37% Walker 6% Kenny 5%
Doesn’t account for the FCP who are actually running a candidate this time but that can only hurt the PC's here since FCP votes will come almost directly from the PC's(though i doubt the FCP will get any more than 1-2% here).
Now i know this is one poll, but it wont sit well with the PC's. I think Tory is done regardless.
07 10 01 Pete B.
As I correctly predicted after the debate, Faith-based schools were going to end up as Tory's Waterloo! After today's announcement, I feel sufficiently confident to make the following predictions:
- Wynne will now win this riding easily
- Liberals will return to power after the election, probably with a reduced majority
- Tory will resign as PC leader on the 10th or 11th
- Since PC will now be perceived as lame ducks, they will lose a few more ridings that they had a chance (it's always better to have an MPP in government than in opposition)
- Specifically PC is now vulnerable in Barrie, all the Peel ridings, Niagara Falls, Peterborough, Oakville, Guelph and some of the York and Durham region ridings
- PC will almost certainly again be shut out in TO with even Willowdale now TCTC
A sad state of affairs for Tory. Competitors just don't get any easier than McGuinty, and yet he could not handle even that!!!
07 10 01 Marshall Howard Bader
It's time to call this one. The Compas/Ottawa Citizen poll of over 330 voters in DV West combined with the Tory flipflop on multi-faith means that this race is over an the fat lady is signing. John Tory is about to become the Larry Grossman of 2007. As for Kathleen Wynn, she may eventually be a potential leaership candidate when Dalton eventually steps down.
07 10 01 Old Willowdaler
Voters seldom fail to elect a Premier or Opposition Leader which should bode well for Mr. Tory. Sadly he has been hoisted by his own petard. Having run those ads rebuking The Premier for ‘breaking promises’ he has now flip flopped on the funding issue. This was foresee able as is his defeat now. (1) Tory's mentor Bill Davis brought down Miller with a similar commitment in 1985 (2) Most Ontarian's are secular be they Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Muslim etc meaning for most of us Schools are for learning and Places of Worship are for Religion (3) Any Private or school that is Non-public has in most people's mind a touch of ‘privilege’ be it right or wrong. (4) Small town Ontario is not comfortable I have found with ‘other’ religions/Sects/what have you obtaining any special status. These 4 factors it would seem to me doomed Mr. Tory the moment he made that commitment. As we can see by decision today to make it a free vote it has driven support away from him. This means that Mr. Tory will not only lose to Dalton (possibly even a slim majority) but I believe he has been hoisted by his own petard in Don Valley and Ms. Wynne will Win (pardon the pun)
07 10 01 Orleans Voter
Well, it's always possible Tory could turn things around in the last week, but it looks like things are probably over:
An Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll has found that the Conservative leader, whose party has consistently trailed Dalton McGuinty's Liberals province-wide throughout the first three weeks of the campaign, now has big trouble in his own backyard.
The poll shows Tory with backing of 37 per cent of decided voters in race for the riding of Don Valley West, well behind the 52 per cent for Liberal Kathleen Wynne.
07 10 01 King of Kensington
While Compas is not the most reliable of pollsters, it is interesting that it shows a large lead for Kathleen Wynne over John Tory in this riding. This riding is practically tailor-made for Tory. Wealthy WASPs from Leaside and Lawrence Park who would normally vote Conservative are upset about Tory's religious schools proposal which has turned out to be a total disaster. The PC's are stuck with this dumb policy during the election (since Tory said it was such an issue of principle) but will certainly be dropping this plank after the election.
Tory is already disliked by much of the rural base of his party and it looks like he won't be making any gains for the party in the 416 area code as promised. They will be looking for a new leader on October 11.
07 09 30 AL
I was in Don Valley West today and met a woman, an older voter, ‘WASP’, upper middle class - they sort of person who is the core PC vote in this riding - and she said she liked John Tory and was a Conservative supporter but was going to vote Green because of the school funding issue. I suspect a lot of the usual Tory vote will either vote for other parties or stay home. The funding issue will hurt Tory with his own base here and the complete lack of an NDP campaign means you won't see Liberal votes siphoned off to the left. The Greens, I think, will take equally from the Conservatives and Liberals - possibly more from the Conservatives given their right-of-centre economic model and their stance for defunding the Catholic school system. Add to this the fact that Tory has skipped all but one all-candidates meeting, including Goldhawk Live and the other free time Rogers all-candidates broadcast in which each candidate gets 2 minutes, and my guess is Tory will not win DVW unless the Tories win province-wide. As it's now clear that isn't going to happen I'm calling this riding for the Liberals.
07 09 30 Pondhawk
Debate today was interesting...Adrian Walker continues to impress me...Tory supporters were there in were Wynne's...Tory was well spoken and Wynne was passionate at times...made for good debate...however, I wonder if it changed anyone's mind...while I am leaning Green, I still think Wynne will did seem (at least to me) that some of the PC supporters were a tad rude at times...anyone else's impressions?...and just where is the NDP??? Unbelievable collapse of their support in this riding...I think Greens will finish ahead of them...and just where is the debate on MMP?
07 09 30 MH
There's an all-candidates' meeting at Leaside High, 200 Hanna Road (just south and east of Bayview and Eglinton), at 2 p.m. this afternoon. A large crowd is expected as well as the media. How the main candidates do and how the debate gets reported may have impact not only in DVW but well beyond it. I say 'may', because I continue to be unsure about the effect on voters of these debates.
07 09 30 binriso
Time to call Tory's demise. If Kathleen Wynne was not the education minister(even if she was another important minister like finance or deputy premier) Tory would have won this riding. Too bad faith based funding killed them and that it became such a big issue in the campaign. If the PC's hadnt brought this up, this election would be too close to call but it looks more and more like a McGuinty government, and possibly a majority one at that. Wynne by ~1000 votes.
07 09 29 J.B.
Wynne for the win! I don't live in this riding, so you can take these comments as a grain a salt.
Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, John Tory is going to be watching his party from the sidelines. The entire faith-based school proposal completely destroyed him and his party before the campaign even started. It's ironic that he's running against the former Minister of Education.
07 09 29 Orleans Voter
With the Liberals having a 2 to 1 lead in Toronto over the Conservatives in this week's poll, John Tory may have trouble winning this seat.
07 09 29 MH
Thanks, PL. I haven't had a chance to do much field work since early in the week, though I did note this morning, driving along Eglinton, that the count on that street between Bayview and Brentcliffe is now Wynne 10, Tory 4, and Green 1.
For those who don't read the Globe and Mail, the front section today had a story on DVW, stating that Mr. Tory is in an unexpectedly tough fight. The religious schools issue is said to be hurting him. The Globe's letters-to-the-editor column today carries one by the historian Michael Bliss, quite possibly Leaside's most distinguished resident. He is very critical of Mr. Tory's stand on funding religious schools.
This one is still too close to call, but I'm increasingly of the view that, unless the PC campaign picks up momentum next week, DVW will go narrowly Liberal.
07 09 29 Interested Bystander
From today's (Sept. 29) Ipsos Reid Poll release, entitled ‘Post Debate Tory Tumble Gives McGuinty Liberals Ten Point Lead’:
‘Examining the 416 area code (Toronto proper) shows that that the Liberals now have a ‘2 votes to 1 lead’ over the Progressive Conservatives, with Liberals receiving the support of 50% of Torontonians (up 6 points since last week) and the Tories receiving support from 25% of Torontonians (down 9 points since last week). The NDP have surged to 22% support (up 6 points since last week), while the Green party has dipped to 3% support (down 3 points since last week).’
The IR poll also notes less dramatic attrition of the Tory vote in the 905 area codes, which could come into play in the swing areas. Now to quote Ian Urquhart (also from today, in the Star):
‘There were safer Conservative seats available (notably, Willowdale). But Conservative insiders say that Tory wanted to run in a swing riding because he will win it if his party prevails provincially and lose it if the party loses. That way, he won't have to return as opposition leader, a job he detests.’
Still TCTC, but with each passing day, it seems more and more likely that Mr. Tory might get his wish.
07 09 28 Pondhawk
Adrian Walker has been very engaging...I would agree...NDP...a token candidate...Wynne should win...I know Tory is busy with the rest of the province but several no shows with absolutely NO explanation for ALL of the candidate appearances is a little hard to would think for a man looking to win in Toronto, an important thing for a Conservative looking to be Premier, he would at least be attempting to look concerned for his potential seat...a courteous explanation of his non-appearance would be well understood by most coming to the meetings...but what do they hear?? Silence...I don't think it bodes well...
07 09 27 PL
MH: Thanks for all your work. Time to test your thesis on Bessborough - my count was Wynne 21, Tory 11. Rumsey was 14-7 for Wynne. Both streets run from South to North Leaside and Bessborough is regarded locally as the prestigious street with the most expensive houses.
John Tory was a no-show tonight on Goldhawk on Rogers Cable with no explanation. The show advertised that he would participate and Goldhawk appeared miffed. The NDP candidate was also a no-show. This left Wynne and Adrian Walker with the full time to answer viewers' questions. So far, Tory has appeared at none of the four all-candidates meetings. There is another scheduled for this Sunday and I assume he will be there.
The NDP invisibility continues: no signs, no literature, no candidate at two of four debates and a substitute at another. Meanwhile, Adrian has been engaging and articulate. I'm predicting that the Greens will finish ahead of the NDP in this riding.
07 09 27 binriso
Still Kathleen Wynne and the DVW Liberals will not just roll over and hand this to Tory, wouldnt a greater humiliation just be a Liberal Majority and Tory to lose his seat?
07 09 27 lrs
just basing prediction that Liberal organization will win out on Oct 10-school teachers providing extra workers- are the tories matching or pulling in extra workers to help campaign? I am assuming there will be a poll released on this riding before Oct 10 and if Tory is behind- will influence provincial campaign just like 1990 when internal polls released on Peterson's riding in London Centre that just fed the Liberal panic in 1990- admit Wynne looked uncomfortable on Coren's show this week in trying to defend Liberal's position on religious school funding -refused to answer inequality argument- just repeating Ontario is different than other provinces and infrastructure costs - I assume those costs existed in 1985 when Davis extended funding to catholic high schools beyond constitutional guaranteed elementary school system but assume Liberals can scare enough Leaside mothers about consequences of extended funding and poorer areas in riding probably will vote Liberal massively
07 09 27 LF
Nick, let me get this straight. You're claiming that the Liberals would now prefer to lose this seat? In what way is this good strategy? It is an embarrassment to Tory for him to lose whether or not he wins the general election and you can be sure the Liberals still want to embarrass him.
Rest assured the Liberals want this riding badly and will more than likely divert resources from safer ridings to push them over the top. It'll still be down to the wire, but Wynne's pushing ahead. Faith-based funding has been a disaster for Tory voters in the riding, many of whom may now stay home.
07 09 27 MH
Correction: I see on the map that Moore changes its name to Southvale at Bayview, something I should have known since I have driven along it hundreds of times. Live and learn. The tally Wynne 7, Tory 5, Green 1, applies to Southvale.
07 09 27 Nick J Boragina
My first prediction here was for a Liberal win. I moved it TCTC after seeing how well the local campaign has been going for Tory. Now I am starting to see things move into the right places. The Tory campaign has been stronger within the city then they expected, and while they falter elsewhere, and John will remain the Leader of the Opposition, the reality is that here in this riding they are making the impact they need to. The Liberals, so I heard, wanted to make Tory lose his seat as an embarrassment if he won the election. Now that it looks more and more obvious that he won’t, it becomes a better strategy to let him win his seat, and then, hopefully – for the liberals – face off against a Majority government. Why? Either Tory has to sit around as leader for 4 years, or he quits. If he does quit, there will be great pressure to resign his seat – in which case the Liberals will just take it back. PC win by the narrowest of margins.
07 09 26 BPetrie
My bias is Liberal as I have canvassed in this riding since 1995. I think that Leaside will be critical as other parts of the riding are pretty committed one way or another. The interesting thing about Leaside is that the lawn sign count IS a fairly good indicator of popularity. I know that this is not true for many areas, but, it seems to be the case here. At this point, Wynne is ahead in the ‘sign war’ and that is significant. If it changes, that will be significant as well. Last week I had her ahead in the sign count about 5:3.
07 09 26 MH
I spent some more time driving through Leaside. On Moore between Millwood and Bayview the count today is Wynne 7, Tory 5 and Green 1. I then drove along Sutherland from Bayview to Glenvale, which took me through Leaside from southwest to farthest north. The count: Wynne 21, Tory 17. Of all the streets I've been along that show at least ten signs, only Glenvale has given a significant edge to the PCs. I would expect Bessborough, especially south of Leaside High, to lean to Mr. Tory, but didn't have the time to test my thesis.
Driving back from Caledon yesterday, I got off a crowded 401 at Keele, and as a result drove through York South-Weston for a while. Signs everywhere in promiscuous profusion, for both Albanese and Ferreira, often side-by-side on the same small piece of lawn. (Nothing for the PCs, who probably regard YS-W in the same way the NDippers regard DVW.) What a contrast with Leaside, where you can go an entire block and see just one sign, or even none at all! It must be a cultural difference.
07 09 26 RyanOntario
wow this as an exciting race but we must remember leaders of the main 3 political parties in ontario rarely don't win there own seats. and on the federal level its almost unheard of.
this riding has a long tradition except 03 of electing pc candidates at the provincial level. sure it has changed over the years as toronto has changed.
i disagree with so many of the previous comments , and think John Tory is a smart leader and he wouldn't of decided to run in this riding if he didn't think he would be able to win it .
Kathleen Wynne is no doubt a strong candidate but local voters will realise the liberal party wants to win this seat only for partisan reasons .
07 09 25 Pete B.
The first post-debate poll is out and shows essentially no gain for PC. As I commented immediately after the debate, while Tory ‘won’ in the debate, he did NOT explain his faith based schools concept in an acceptable way for most voters, and that will hurt him and PC.
I am continuing to give Tory a slight edge here, but this is even more TCTC than before.
07 09 25 MH
One more street to report on, this time near the southern boundary of DVW: Wynne 4, Tory 3, Green 1.
I think BC is right: Leasiders value their public schools and may see the PC proposal to fund religious schools as a threat to their own. The recent comments by Mr. Murdoch have not helped the Tory cause.
07 09 25 G. Peter
Rebel, there were some news outlets that called the debate for McGuinty. To be completely forthright though, I think it was 50/50. At least from what I saw. Maybe 60/40 one way or the other, but the commentary on the debate certainly appeared balanced with some in favor of Tory and some in favor of McGuinty.
Thats the first thing.
Second thing: I think that the debate will have no impact on this riding. I don't know that people here have that much interest in the debate and neither McGuinty or Tory will have made an impact.
My personal belief is that this riding is going to come down to election day and the Tory central campaign province-wide.
If Tory's campaign doesnt build more steam across the province (todays SES poll seems to suggest its not so far) and if his MPPs continue to publicly revolt against his leadership, I think you can call this one for Wynne.
If, on the other hand, Tory begins to pick up steam and get his candidates to stop openly questioning his decision-making, and the polls showing a horse race on election day, I think Tory picks this riding up.
Either way, GotV efforts will be critical on the ground and I don't know which camp has the edge here.
My call: Too close to call at this point. If Tory's campaign doesn't gain steam, its Wynne. If he can make it a horse-race, its Tory.
07 09 25 BC
The latest SES poll has all the major parties stalled where they were prior to the election call. Tory made a significant strategic error in listening to Frank Klees and adopting the funding for faith-based schools policy. It is a major distraction for him both locally and province-wide. The way I see it - Tory will take the Bridle Pat and parts of Lawrence Park. Wynne will take Flemingdon Park and Thorncliffe leaving Leaside to determine the election. Education is an important issue to Soccer Moms and Wynne has been an exceptional Education Minister. Folks are very torn and I think there will be a large split along gender lines. It is going to be exceptionally close, but there is not much yeast in Tory's numbers and so he may not be able to squeeze through on Oct. 10. Wouldn't it be interesting if we ended up with a minority government and the Leader of the Opposition fails to win his seat.
07 09 25 PL
Derek has a valid point - John Parker's support for John Tory may not be helpful as he carries baggage from the Harris era, particuarly the forced amalgamation of the city. It was vociferously opposed by a huge majority in Leaside.
Tory also has the support of former Councillor Jane Pitfield and Wynne no doubt has Abdul Ingar (she endorsed him) who did well (14% of the total vote to Parker's 20% in a 15-person field) particularly in Flemingdon/Thorncliffe where the vote split several ways in the municipal election. Candidates whose support was centred in F/T polled well over 35% of the total in the ward and there was much better voter participation there. It will be interesting to see how that result plays out in this election.
I agree with the observations of diligent contributors to this site - I have not seen an NDP sign anywhere in the riding nor do I know any other residents who have seen one.
07 09 25 binriso
Latest SES poll puts the Liberals up 13% in the 416/905 region, since PC support is obviously better in the 905 region and it is much bigger and encompasses more ridings, they are in trouble here all around Metro Toronto and in my estimation will win a MAXIMUM of three seats in the 416, probably even less than that. Not one poll has put PC support above 37 since the campaign began and the average for them is about the same as 2003(34-35%). Liberals are holding steady(40-41%) each time with a couple of 39s and a few above 40. Tory isnt safe here yet and its possible for him to lose.
07 09 24 Rebel
Dear Derek...I re-read your post with care and certainly had no malice in my description. My fond view of John Parker remains the same in any event.
I can also hardly accept any categorization of John Tory or his campaign as ?neo-Con?.
All that being said, you suggest that the PC ads are hurting and that the Debate has not helped his cause and therefore Wynne will win. I disagree on both counts but like you predict a close result. Cheers!
07 09 24 Rebel
Every reporter that I have read suggests that McGuinty lost and either or both of Hampton and Tory won. I think the consensus coalesced a day or two after the debate which is typical...from there people form their impression as often on not what they may have seen themselves but what the newspapers are saying.
Ah but the proof of the pudding is in the tasting and there is an overdue Ipsos-Reid poll that may provide some evidence of shift. I agree that debates will not usually shake that many voters but with a 3% lead, you don't need much more than a ripple.
07 09 24 Derek
Dear Rebel,
It appears you may have mistaken (or conflated) elements of my post. I did not refer to John Parker as a neo-conservative. He was indeed a Harris backbencher who willfully went along with the now repudiated Common Sense Revolution. Does this make him a neo-con? Probably not. However, it shows that Mr. P's subservience to the party outweighed his political convictions. No 'moderate' conservative would faithfully watch a reform style agenda be forced through, and then run again (unsuccessfully) on the same extreme platform.
The only time i discuss neo-conservatism is at the end of the post, where I suggest that Mr. Tory (whom I believe is likely not of the Harris blend) has had his campaign hijacked by the backroom types intent on steering the once grand party into the tried/tested/failed slash and spend form.
07 09 23 MH
Thanks for your answer, LF. Makes excellent sense, though if I were an NDP worker I would want to show the flag in Leaside. The Greens are doing at least that much.
Just before dinner I completed an hour-long ramble along many of the by-ways between Bayview, Laird, Glenvale, and Eglinton. Got some excellent exercise and had a further opportunity to indulge my political curiosity. The score, exclusive of Glenvale, Broadway and Eglinton themselves, on which I have reported earlier: Wynne 16, Tory 13, Green (no name indicated) 1. Make of this what you will. I'm hoping to visit as-yet unexplored regions of south Leaside early next week to see what's up down there.
As for the leadership debates, I wonder how much difference they will make. I didn't watch them, having learned from long and painful experience that they are usually unbelievably irritating. So after the 1993 federal election I simply stopped watching. My happiness hasn't suffered as a consequence.
07 09 23 LF
Rebel, please clue me in on the ‘overwhelming’ consensus that Tory won the debate. From what I read, the Star and Sun's editorial page named McGuinty the winner and the Globe and Post called it a draw. In any event, I highly doubt that thousands of Don Valley West voters tuned into the debate. Since there is no collective urge to throw out the government, many people simply are not paying that much attention.
In Don Valley West itself, while Tory travels the province fighting a losing campaign, Wynne is knocking on doors in the riding 9 hours a day.
07 09 23 Rebel
Dear is seldom that I run across a post so full of hyperbole that I needed to take a walk before responding...
First, I hesitate to imagine what John Parker has done to arouse such agitation and then to link it to the result in Don Valley West. If this is the same John Parker who was the PC member from York East from 1995-1999, then he is also the same young lawyer with whom I had classes at University. To describe him as a neo-con is delusional. He is very much of the John Tory brand of pragmatic and moderate conservatism.
Second, I am glad that you hold sufficiently independent views not to be swayed by the overwhelming verdict that McGuinty got creamed in the debate. He awayed like a pinata in between Tory and Hampton. Now thousands of Don Valley West voters saw John Tory that evening and must have seen a man who looks and acts like a Premier of the province.
There have been no further polls post-debate but I should be surprised if the Liberal margin (only 3% across the province pre-debate) has virtually evaporated...If anything that debate result may have cemented Tory's victory in this riding with no way for Whynne to make a counter-impression.
07 09 22 LF
MH, the answer to your question regarding the NDP is that they don't bother much with the riding because they have traditionally received about 4-5% of the vote here, both federally and provincially. An NDP vote in Don Valley West is essentially a vote for the Conservatives. Wynne will win if the vote in Flemingdon and Thorncliffe is fully mobilized as she seems to be holding her own in Tory-friendly polls.
07 09 22 Derek
This is going to be very close. The bad news for John Tory, was that his debate performance failed to inspire. Further, the negative ad campaign has not help the PC leader ingratiate himself with the educated voters in Leaside, et al. The Thorncliffe voters are underestimated. There are many very bright, motivated people residing in that area. If they turn out the vote, then Tory will lose by over a thousand votes.
Thorncliffe/Flemingdon recently learned a hard lesson when a certain John Parker won a city council seat with barely 20 percent of the vote. Because their votes were split between two strong candidates, the riding got 4 more years of conservative representation at City Hall, which will likely be a far to the right of the more moderate (and independent-thinking) Jane Pitfield.
While Dalton McGuinty has made a few errors in four years, Kathleen has not. Moreover, McGuinty's campaign has been strong, and the media consensus of the debate appears to have signalled a Tory/NDP loss. Of note, even the haranguing tabloid 'The Toronto Sun', came out with an editorial criticizing Tory. If he cannot count on the normally slavish 'Sun' for support, both his regional and provincial campaigns are in serious trouble. Tory would have been wise to relegate the neo-con element to the annals of history where they belong. Instead, it appears they have hijacked his provincial campaign.
Prediction: A Wynne victory.
07 09 21 MH
The first sign of Green has appeared, on Eglinton Avenue near Rumsey. And I have tallied another east-west street, this time north of Eglinton: Tory 10, Wynne 7. I'm not doing this on foot, by the way, though no doubt my health would benefit if I did.
Question for whomever can come up with an answer: What has happened to the NDP in this constituency? Is the party simply not bothering with Leaside?
07 09 21 Rebel
First of all, I congratulate MH for the deligent work walking down streets, counting signs and then for the persuasive analysis...
I have campaigned in DVW a number of times but some time ago and then Leaside was a necessary area for the Tories to take but take it they did...The riding has changed and the addition of Flemington Park and other low income apartments have given the Liberals a strong counter to the affluent and PC-leaning single family home residential areas.
Your sign counts do suggest that the PCs (at the very least) are not winning Leaside solidly and I do think that the riding is going to be very close...even the overall provincial trends would suggest that, unless one Party bolts to the lead post-debate.
A big advantage that Tory has is his ability to be on the TV screens every day while Whynne must do her campaigning in the streets. She apparently has the support of a number of teachers who will provide some muscle to her campaign but the PCs should have a good organization on the ground as well...even in the absence of Tory himself much of the time.
My gut sense is that the PC voters will be more motivated to vote whereas the Liberal votes will need to be corralled. I also have the feeling that when a voter looks at the election ballot, Tory will get a last second boost.
07 09 21 Pete B.
I am changing my prediction to TCTC after the debate.
While McGuinty did horribly and Tory respectably well, he didn't effectively deal with the one real issue he had - faith school funding. Whether he just could not articulate the position or was careful not to alienate Catholic voters, it just left unanswered questions.
If McGuinty was running against him it would be easy but Wynne is a shrewd campaigner and will use that to her advantage!
Tory still has the fact that he is the most respected Premier candidate going for him but his election now depends on whether he can convince DVW voters that PC will take over in the province!
07 09 20 MH
I've checked four more streets, all east-west,in Leaside. The sign count:
1) Wynne 9, Tory 3; 2) Tory 2, Wynne 1 (a short street); 3)Tory 9, Wynne 8; 4) Wynne 3, Tory 1 (a long street, but few signs). The first street I checked now has 15 Wynne and 12 Tory signs. Nothing yet for the NDP or the Greens. There are almost three weeks left, but at the moment things do not look as rosy for Mr. Tory as they should, given his status as party leader.
I know the northern end of the constituency will vote PC by a wide margin. In a provincial election more than 30 years ago I was an inside scrutineer in Lawrence Park United Church. I will always remember the vote in the polls I was asked to monitor: PC 197, Liberal 31, NDP 3. Because of the large lot sizes in Lawrence Park and points north, however, and the near-absence of apartment buildings, the number of votes cast will be relatively low. There are far more voters in the southeastern section of DVW, although the proportion who will go to the polls will be significantly lower than in the north. My guess is that Ms. Wynne will pick up more votes in the southeast than Mr. Tory will in the northwest. This is why I think Leaside is more important to his success than it is to hers, though she will have to take at least half of the votes there.
I think DVW is still too close to call, but I will continue to monitor Leaside for clues to indicate who the eventual winner will be. My guess right now is that no more than 2500 votes, and probably considerably fewer, will separate the Grits and Tories.
07 09 20 LF
Although I think Wynne will pull it out, it will be down to the wire.
MH, you mentioned that Wynne only needs to hold her own in Leaside whereas Tory needs to win it strongly. I don't believe that's the case, although I agree how Leaside votes will determine the outcome. I think Wynne has to win Leaside. The northern affluent parts of the riding and Lawrence Park will go Tory and Wynne will take Flemingdon, Thorncliffe, and the Bedford Park area (her own neighbourhood).
Marshall, that could be a function of which part of the riding you live in. Obviously both of them have areas they are targeting more than others. Which part of the riding do you live in? For my part, we've received both Wynne and Tory literature.
07 09 20 Politically Active
This race is a question about John Tory's leadership. He said that he wanted to bring the Conservative party back to life in Toronto and he did the courageous or foolish thing, depending on what happens on election night. Tory will win but not by much. Kathleen Wynne has put together a better than expected campaign and the Conservatives are worried.
07 09 19 Marshall Howard Bader
Earlier I had called this for John Tory. It now appears that Wynne will pull of the upset of the election. I have gotten two election flyers from Wynne, none from Tory. Wynne has personally knocked on my door and said hello; Tory is nowhere to be seen. Wynne seems also to be winning the sign war.
07 09 18 MH
Checking out another east-west street in Leaside, this time south of Eglinton between Laird and Bayview, I counted nine Wynne and six Tory signs. Signs don't vote, I know, but a pattern seems to be emerging, and it doesn't look good for John Tory. Winning Leaside is crucial to his chances for personal election, whereas Kathleen Wynne only needs to hold her own there. If Mr. Tory doesn't carry Leaside by a good margin, he will lose DVW.
My guess is that the religious-funding issue is hurting him in this part of the constituency.
07 09 18 Andrew Cox
Too close to call.
I'm just going to offer some initial observations here and hold my conclusions for October.
1) Thanks to the profile of Wynne and Tory, province-wide attention, and resources from the Grits and PC central campaigns, this campaign is turning into a highly polarized Liberal vs Conservative fight. Voters tempted to vote NDP or Green are caught in that analysis and deciding to vote Liberal. I'm struck by how few NDP or Green signs there are here, even fewer than last time. This likely helps the Liberals, although the smaller parties got relatively few votes last time around, so it may not be a huge factor.
2) Tory has not done himself any favours in his local race with his provincial campaign. First, he is running a highly negative campaign (as all three leaders are), while Wynne is able to run on a slightly more positive records as Education Minister and contrast that to Tory's private schools plan. Second, Tory himself has made private schools the central issue of the election, especially with his comments on creationism and leaving the details for Bill Davis to think out. Third, Tory's own caucus is criticizing the private school plan, which undermines both Tory's reputation for competence and his leadership ability, his two strengths.
3) In modern media-driven politics, party leaders almost always win. Larry Grossman, David Peterson, Kim Campbell, were all leading parties that were literally wiped out and carried much of the blame for that loss. Tory is in voter's living rooms every night, whereas Wynne might meet a voter once if she's lucky.
4) While there will be a number of ?anti-Tory? voters in this riding, I have yet to meet anyone who is ?anti-Wynne?. ?Anti-Dalton? sure, but few people dislike Kathleen Wynne personally. That may be an important factor in a race that is already very negative.
5) As I noted above, there is considerable discontent in the PC caucus about Tory right now. I used to think if he lost the election, he was still a lock to lead the party into 2011. But now I think he will be tossed over board at the first opportunity by people like Bob Runciman who are already laying the groundwork with comments about how badly the private school plan is playing. Tory has often said that he would be perfectly happy returning to business. If it becomes obvious he won't win the election by October 1, does he start pulling resources out of here to avoid a bloody putsch after October 10?
Anyway, some thoughts for now. More to come.
07 09 18 Pete B.
One more thought - it is becoming increasingly clear from today's polls that Tory is ahead but needs to explain the Faith based education initiative. I predict that his performance in Thursday's debate on this issue will not onlydecide his own fate but determine if PC can get a majority. It almost looks like the electorate is looking for a McGuinty alternative but is at the same time concerned about this controversial issue.
Having seen Tory's explanation (Q&A in the National Post), in which he focused on inclusion, fairness and institutional control of faith schools, I have no doubts he has the arguments to convince the province. The question still remains whether he can effectively convey that argument to the public - we will soon see.
For the time being my prediction is unchanged.
07 09 17 MH
John Tory is winning the sign war in Lawrence Park. No surprise there. So far, however, Kathleen Wynne has more signs in Leaside, both north and south of Eglinton. Along one long street that traverses Leaside from west to east, I counted 12 Wynne and 9 Tory signs this afternoon. (Nothing for the NDP or Greens.) There are not enough votes in Lawrence Park and further north to elect Tory. He needs strong support in Leaside, and I wonder if that support is there.
07 09 14 Pete B.
I have been spending a lot of time in this riding because of business reasons and I am pretty certain that John Tory should win. This is PC territory (except for Thorncliff Park) and having the future Premier or Leader of the Opposition as MPP should appeal to voters.
Although I am predicting a Tory win, I am also very impressed by Kathleen Wynne and feel that it could also swing to her if there is a PC meltdown province wide, or if the debate next week goes very wrong for John Tory. This is especially true since the northern (more affluent) parts of the riding are not strongly anti-Wynne.
The prediction is that this is one of 2-3 ridings (with Willowdale and one of the Etobicoke ridings) in the city that will go PC.
07 09 13 eldavido
This could very well be a close Liberal win. Tory is on very unsafe ground with the education issues to start with, and the faith based schools fiasco won't inspire much belief in his judgement or ability to lead.
With all the teacher unions pinning him down close to home he's in for a big fight to hold onto his party not too mention grabbing this seat; a poor choice for him to start with. So far he has not met expectations, and the clock is ticking. Good bye John Tory!
07 09 13 Initial
This needs to be placed in the PC column - This part of the GTA has a long history of PC representation - David Turnbull and Dennis Timbrell both represented parts of this riding in the past, for example. This, combined with the fact that John Tory is the party leader and extremely personally popular in Toronto, means that the riding needs to be put into the PC column.
07 09 13 Japhtastic
alas i know for certain: this, if you're at all interested in politics is the sexiest story of the campaign. my favourite part? as the tory central campaign tour goes south, so to do tory's chances in the riding. criminey bo-biminey. anybody's guess. hey person that runs this site, you should just wipe it clean with about a week to go and lets us all have a feeding frenzy on it. we're just monkeys throwing darts at a stock index right now. any talk right now is fake.
07 09 13 Brendan B.
Whoever thinks that Tory will be beaten is sorely mistaken. This is a guy with a huge public profile in the city of Toronto, he came close to beating David Miller in the 2nd last municipal election, and parts of this riding were some of his strongest polls (Leaside etc.)..
07 09 12 mb
Where either candidate lives doesn't matter in this riding. (Tory used to live in Lawrence Park. Wynne was on the other side of Yonge). It will come down to whether Tory can carry Lawrence Park and Leaside like he should. There are a lot of Tory targeted voters unhappy with expanding religious school funding. Will they hate the Health Tax enough to overlook this issue? That Wynne is the Minister of Education just reinforces education as the issue here.
Without the religious school funding issue Wynne would have had her walking papers. I'd like to see the leader of the opposition win, but it's too close to call right now.
07 09 10 MH
Too close to call right now, but leaning to Liberal. The PCs must figure they have a good chance of winning Don Valley West, or they wouldn't have put John Tory here. But it's very far from being a slam dunk. Not only is he up against the minister of education, but he's running in territory that is naturally PC only in the northern and northwestern sectors.
Without the schools issue, I'd say DVW would lean to the PCs, but I fear that particular issue has damaged the Conservative cause. A tight race that will be very interesting to watch.
07 09 04 BPetrie
This riding goes with the provincial trend. The NDP represented much of what was this riding in 1990, the Tories won it in 1995 and 1999 and the Liberals took it in 2003. While the Northern parts of the riding will support Tory, the Southern parts, especially Thorncliffe Park is bedrock Liberal territory. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, no pundit is predicting a John Tory victory. The Liberals are way ahead in the GTA which is also not good for Tory. As well, if Tory's promise to fund faith based schools becomes an issue, this will polarize the vote in WASP areas such as Leaside (where I lived for 13 years), which is a swing area in the middle of the riding. Leaside is more ?red tory? than Liberal or Conserative and boasts some of the the biggest and most active public school PTAs in the province. Wynne is the Education Minister and has done a reaonable job. If the Liberals can hang onto Leaside, Tory will be running his party from the visitor's gallery.
07 09 03 Nick J Boragina
I'm changing my prediction to too close to call for now. Why? Well I've been talking to people in both campaigns, and both sides agree the dynamics have changed in the last month, Tory has a stronger campaign now here. Basically, it comes down to this. While you cannot predict things based on a province wide rise or decline in vote, the reality is that there is always some province wide trend. On that note, Tory winning the riding comes down to this - If the PC Party loses the election, Tory does not win his seat. If they win a majority, he wins it. If the PC Party wins a minority, then it will all hang on a dozen or so votes, and those voters might not just decide this seat but the government itself, as Dalton will have a case to hang on to power if the ?Premier Elect? is not even in the house.
07 09 02 Rebel
Hi LF...Your comments are perfectly reasonable...
Ward 25 did go for John Tory in a landslide.
However, it took some work but I confirmed that Ward 26 also voted for Tory over Miller by 800 votes.
In my view, I think the Harris comparison is pretty stale. Tory has now left his imprint on the PC Party and it is only slightly easier to raise the ghost of Harris as it is to compare the Liberals to Mitch Hepburn's horrible period as Premier (a little bit of a reach but I seldom hear about Harris)
I do agree that both Tory and Wynne have perfectly valid claims for voters' loyalty...I just think that Tory will have an inside track and a great capacity to get his voters out.
07 08 30 LF
Rebel, if you mean Ward 25, then yes John Tory did very well there. Ward 26 is also Don Valley West though and I'm pretty certain Miller won that ward. In any case, voting for a centre-right individual for mayor versus a left-wing candidate is very different from voting for a centre-right individual leading a party still very much associated with Mike Harris versus a well-respected local centrist Liberal incumbent. After all, if the argument is that people voted for Tory there once before, why not again, you would have to take into account that the same voters elected Wynne last election.
Both Tory and Wynne each have legitimate claims to be local candidates - that won't be where the riding is won or lost.
07 08 29 Rebel
John Tory does not live in Don Valley West, but was raised there...he will still be counted as a local boy and the ward largely corresponding to Don Valley West voted heavily for Tory in the municipal election when he ran for Mayor.
07 08 29 jl
Regarding my last comment. Thanks for the note. True, he does not live there now, but he grew up there, has roots there, went to school there, and his parents still live there. He is well rooted in the riding.
07 08 28 LF
I think the fact that Kathleen Wynne rose from being a rookie MPP to becoming the Minister of Education, the second largest ministry in the government, in three years is a clear testament to her very impressive performance in government. Sure, there are some people who will vote for Tory simply because he is a party leader, but there are many voters who remember the chaos in public education when the Tories were in power and will choose to vote for an education minister who has brought stability and peace to school boards across the province.
07 08 28 jl
As a party leader, John Tory certainly comes across as more refined, honourable and personable than Ernie Eves of the 2003 election. The fact that he chose his own home riding in which to run won't be lost on local residents. Kathleen Wynne has some local popularity, but her performance in government has been less than impressive. The people of the riding will warm up to the idea of having a party leader as their local MPP, and I predict a Conservative win for 2007.
Editor Note: John Tory actually does NOT live in Don Valley West. He currently lives on Bloor Street, located in Toronto Centre Rosedale.
Reference -
07 08 25 binriso
Well I guess in 1990-1999 Turnbull was elected in York Mills, a different riding than Don Valley West. Makes him look a little less impressive for winning in 1990 then. Still a 13 year MPP would have at least some name recognition and John Tory is not replacing a no-name PC candidate. The PC's could win a minority government and lose this seat too. I wonder, if Tory lost in this seat would the party be more apt to dump him as leader?
07 08 24 Ken
The new strategic council poll puts PC support at 24% and the Liberal support at 45% in the 416 area, this should be an early indication that John Tory is in serious trouble here. With about 45 days until the vote and with poll numbers showing the tories in the low 20s I would bet on a Wynne victory here. Why John decided to run here is beside me, when he had a better chance in Etobicoke or Willowdale.
07 08 23 Rebel
I do predict that Tory will pull this riding out but also salute those commentators who think the opposite - their basic premise that ?Tory Toronto? is no more is correct...2003 and the last several federal elections demonstrating that.
But the remnants of the old PC bastions remain in ridings like Don Valley West, and Tory needs to rack up big majorities there (Lawrence Park and Leaside) as well as pull a big vote in Jewish areas like the Bridle Path...all these are very affluent. The Liberals can count on huge majorities like 20-1 in banner years, in the large public housing developments in Flemington Park and Thorncliffe Park. For them the crucial issue is turnout. For the Tories, it is to crack the not very many middle class areas of this diverse riding...No one but Tory could put this together and he will have to rely on a continuing excellent PC organization since he will campaign throughout the province and hope for the best from his organization, name and reputation.
07 08 21 SK
When John Tory decided to run here he pretty much gave Dalton another election victory since good old Johnny Boy will be spending all his time in the riding. What is funny, however is Kathleen Wynne will win, although narrowly. She has the support and endorsement of almost all the teachers unions and has a very powerful organization behind her. Watch the Toronto Liberal juggernaut rally behind Wynne. Wynne by about 1-2%
07 08 21 Sam
If faith based schools or bailing out Toronto become the big issues of this campaign, I think there could be some trouble for John Tory here. This will be the only 416 where the PCs have any hope of winning.
07 08 21 D. Lipman
This riding finally rid itself of the obtuse David Turnbull less than four years ago, and quite honestly, no other ?progressive? conservative would have a shot in here other than John Tory. While Tory's media image may be somewhat more appealing in contrast to the western extremism of Stephen Harper and the regressive PC party leaders of yesteryear such as Mike Harris and Ernie Eves, the former Lastmanite is by no means a lock in this riding.
07 08 18 binriso
This is shaping up to be one heck of a race.
In 2003, Wynne beat long-time MPP and minister Dave Turnbull by about 6100 votes(14% or so although the boundaries are different now). Turnbull even won in 1990 which was when the party was in the toilet. Now I know that John Tory is the leader, but it?s not like she beat a nobody last time and the PC's will not win this one just based on Tory's candidacy. There will need to be a lot of work done by the party to get him elected and i am sure they will give it everything they have. Now incumbents advantage obviously helps but as things are now, its going to be really close. The deciding factor will probably be how the votes is split up with the NDP, Green and minor parties. Now for example if the FCP ran a candidate they averaged 1.6% in the ridings they ran in last time, that 1-2% could make the difference here and defeat the PC's.
I am leaning more towards saying a John Tory win but it can go either way. Federally this seat is strongly Liberal, this cannot hurt the provincial party. Also the NDP are very weak here and they might just not split the vote on the left enough to let the PC's sneak in. Will be one to watch on the campaign trail.
07 08 18 navanlad
I think Kathleen Wynne will pull this out and we will have both Hampton and Tory looking for new jobs. She is extremely popular in the education sector (people thought Kennedy was popular and she creams the guy). Tory has been coming off as an angry little man. This man doesn't sound the least bit optimistic. As Urquhart of the Star pointed out, he has the Harris and Eves' record to contend with. The teachers' unions are devoting a great deal of time, person-power and energy to this one. Wynne in a recount by 500 votes.
07 08 15 GN
Kathleen has been knocking on doors from two years and she does her work. Tory will do well in some areas but if Kathleen can get her vote out she can win this riding.
07 08 13 JDaku
Tory Blue has interesting numbers. I have actually come across some internal polling as well (from the PCs no less) and Tory Blue is quite misleading. John Tory is ahead of Wynne by no more than 2%. The Liberal Party is ahead of the PCs by 8% in this riding. This is going to be a very close election.
07 08 11 A.S.
On the one hand, a ten point margin is hardly evidence of Wynne 'killing' Turnbull (esp. compared to John Godfrey's federal margins); on the other hand, re Tory 'killing' Miller, the Tory vote (or even the Pitfield vote) wasn't necessarily a Tory vote--lotsa blue Grits were circumspect about a municipal NDP agenda, remember. Or just appreciated John Tory's projected competence. Remember: mayoral candidate John Tory had more inherent cross-partisan 'reach' than the John Tory who bears the stigma of leading the perceived provincial party of Mike Harris and Stephen Harper. Though the seat may still be Tory's to lose more than Tory's to win--at the very least, unless he's bombing a la Grossman, it's virtually impossible to imagine John Tory sinking beneath 40%; even David Turnbull (provincially, not federally) couldn't...
07 08 03 Tory Blue
Internal polling has Tory with a double digit lead. Barring a complete meltdown, Wynn will Lose!
07 08 01 LF
What does that prove? Wynne ran here last time and KILLED Turnbull. It has about as much relevance to this campaign as Tory's mayoralty campaign.
Tory is running here not because the polling numbers suggests he would win, but because he grew up in the riding and wants to prove his party can win in the big city. He'll have to rely on the party doing well because he won't be able to outcampaign Wynne locally.
07 08 01 seamus
I do not know why this one is considered ?too close to call?. Ontarians rarely (except David Peterson) snub Provincial leaders. This race, if you can call it that, will make for nice media fodder throughout the campaign, but the result on October 10th will prove the prognosticators as nattering ninnies and that it was all ?a tempest in a teapot?. Wynne should have resigned and ran for City Council in '06 in Pitfield's vacant seat. She could have easily topped the 20% that winner John Parker (former Tory MPP) got. She would have been an instant star on Council - instead she'll suffer an inevitable loss to a Provincial leader who may even be the Premier, leading a minority government. Sad to see Kathleen Wynne go!
07 07 26
Guys....Tory ran for mayor to Toronto. He KILLED Miller in these areas of Toronto during that race. He's running here because the polling numbers show that it's in the bag...otherwise he'd be running further up in the burbs like Markham or Oak Ridges, which are natural PC seats in Ontario.
Tory will will by a good margin.
07 07 19
This one is going to go back and forth all night, but in the end I think Tory will take it by a nose. Wynne will give him a run for his money and keep him in his riding a lot more than he would like. Picking this riding will make Tory a Toronto MPP but it will hurt is overall campaign. McGuinty has a safe riding and will be covering the province but Tory will have to be in this riding at least once per week for a whole day, which is bad for him. Hate to say it, but picking to run here may just keep him out of the Premier's office.
07 06 19 The Jackal
If this was 2003 I would say John Tory would be in trouble here. But with the polls showing the Liberals and Tories being neck and neck and with Tory being the leader of the official opposition he will squeak by here.
07 06 09 AD
Previously I would have said Tory would win this fairly easily. However, Wynne is apparently already campaigning her heart out and it's only June. This coupled with her tangible personal popularity is going to make it tougher for Tory than they originally thought. He's going to have to put some work into this, which means less time for him to go around the province. I think TCTC right now, slight edge to Tory perhaps. Should be an interesting next few months to see how this pans out.
07 06 04 Nick J Boragina
I know many current and former PC Party workers and back room people who have strong doubts that John Tory can win his own riding. If they are nervous, I'd say it could well mean he will lose.
07 05 26 Rural Analyst
Too close to call.
This will be one of the spotlight races in Ontario. A locally popular Minister of Education against the Ontario PC leader. This is is a mostly affluent, socially progressive but fiscally conservative riding which makes it naturally Red Tory/Liberal. The biggest problem that Tory will have is that he will have to balance out trips to shore up support here while trying to become Premier. As for Wynne, she has the incumbency advantage, without which she would probably lose the seat.
07 05 09 Observer
Adjusting for the provincial polling numbers brings the Liberal lead under 3%. Easily overcome by a star candidate with strong ID in the riding. I won't predict a landslide, but I would say decisive.
07 05 01 Marshall Howard Bader
John Tory is the leader with all of the resources that comes with the job. This is a traditional PC riding. As for the parts of the riding: Flemingdon won't vote; Thornecliffe will split between the NDP (who may be running a big name candidate here) and the Grits; Leaside will feel very comfortable with a ?red Tory?; Wynford will split between the Grits and NDP; the North end of the riding (York Mills/Bridlepath/Bayview) will go totally PC. This one isn't even going to be close.
07 04 23 SCW
Tory out-polled David Miller in this riding, and is very well respected. Kathleen Wynne has been a great MPP and Minister of Education, but Tory is just too strong and too well respected within this riding.
07 03 28 JC
This is the riding John Tory is running in and believe me I think is going to be one hell of a challenge for him, he's facing a cabinet minister and this is a very liberal riding federally, I honestly don't know if he can win here despite the fact he's the leader. It's going to be very close but Wynne is going to squeak this one out.
07 03 27 G. Kennedy (not that one)
It goes without saying that this will be Number One on the Tory hit list.
Party leaders seldom lose their seats and this is naturally one of the few Toronto ridings the Conservatives would be in contention for anyways. It seems apparent to me that there will be movement to the Tories (even if it's not enough to form the government) in this election and this will be one of the first to move.
As for Wynne, she has been a lacklustre minister and though the Liberals will try hard to win this seat, my strong suspicion is that she'll go the way of the last education minister from Don Valley.

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