Prediction Changed
10:44 PM 28/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Etobicoke-Lakeshore (100%)
Hon Laurel C. Broten

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 08 LM
This is now obviously Liberal in a walk.
I would love to be fair to the NDP, but the candidate did NOT in fact do the Rogers freetime and was awful in the debates, never mind the farce of a campaign they seem to have run (who the hell is this person anyway, and did they not know an election was on the way?). The NDP vote will be poor.
The Tory is screwed due to this, and would lose even if the NDP was strong. A nobody candidate in a nothing campaign. Broten's vote will go up...which is a shame, as the other parties gave her a pass.
07 10 08 King of Kensington
If the Tories had run a stronger candidate like John Capobianco and if John Tory's campaign was stronger, they could have taken this. But they are apparently running a very weak candidate in Etobicoke-Lakeshore which means the Liberals will take this by default.
07 10 03 Ed Lenarcic
Interesting development: The Town Crier, a local paper, quotes numerous pundits who say that this race is too close to call.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
This would be the third riding to tip Tory in Toronto. Unfortunately for the PC Party, they are going to have one heck of a time trying to win the two ridings they supposedly have an advantage in, that it’s going to be darn hard for them to come close even in a riding like this. If the Tories were going to form a government, then this riding might have been called into question, but with all signs pointing towards a Liberal Majority, it seems obvious that this riding is one they’ll hold on to.
07 10 02 Technocrat
I heard the NDP candidate on that rogers free-time discussion, and I believe she is going to three all candidates meetings this week. Let us be fair here.
07 09 30 R
The NDP got 20% here last election and they could have done better this time with the party's general improvement in the polls but their candidate has been MIA. She skipped the free-time Rogers all candidate broadcast - the one where each candidate gets 2 minutes, she's been skipping all candidates meetings and said on CBC radio that she was only campaigning ‘part-time’. Shame because with a higher-profile, full-time candidate who actually went to meetings the NDP would have done better and might even have been in contention. Look for the NDP vote to go down this time to the benefit of the Liberals.
07 09 27 MH
A strong provincial campaign could have shifted this one to the PCs. With the election less than two weeks off, however, that campaign has not developed. In fact, the two major parties seem stalled. That tends to favour incumbents with significant margins of victory, and in E-L the margin of victory in 2003 was large enough to keep this in the Liberal column in 2007. Of course, if there is a significant shift towards the Tories in the polls during the next 10 days all bets are off.
07 09 27 Tomal
This riding will return a Liberal. Laurel Broten is going back to Queen's Park. I am confident of this for several reasons. Laurel is the incumbent. Liberals are leading in Toronto by a comfortable margin. The Tory in this riding is running a weak, dull campaign that appears to be lacking volunteers and (most surprisingly) money. The NDP is running an even weaker campaign and their candidate isn't half the candidate that Irene Jones was four years ago. So Laurel wins.
Four years ago I wrote the following: ‘This will be a Liberal win. The NDP will get roughly 20% on election day and anyone who thinks Irene Jones will be higher than that simply has not followed this campaign. Wishes don't always come true. Laurel Broten will be in the low forties, Morley Kells will be in the mid thirties and the NDP will be very, very close to 20%. Take it to the bank.’ (this is easily verified since the posts from the last election are still posted here)
My prediction, which turned out to be pretty accurate, prompted this angry reaction from an NDP koolaid drinker: ‘The Liberals are dreaming if they think Irene Jones is only going to get 20% of the vote. The NDP have made a dramatic comeback in Toronto and Jones is the best candidate they have outside of their three sitting members.’
NDP Koolaid drinker was right about Irene being a very, very good candidate but of course was completely wrong about her electoral chances. She just barely passed 20%.
This time the NDP candidate will lose her deposit. She will fall below 15%. Not much below 15%, but definitely below. This will help hand the seat back to Laurel Broten.
Now I will wait for some NDP true believer to wade in with an angry denunciation and some rhetoric about how this is an NDP stronghold and how great the campaign is going for their candidate and for their leader. It will be very entertaining. Just not very true. I cannot help but agree with Mimico Mensh that this riding will not be electing any more New Democrats.
07 09 26 binriso
This is the 3rd of my 3 seats that I think the PC's have a chance in.(with Willowdale and Don Valley West). Then again, a chance does not mean a win and this one will probably be down to the wire less than 1500 votes difference. I’ll give an advantage to the Liberals solely because of incumbent status.
07 09 20 Politically Active
The flick off Campaign was very fitting when it comes to describing Laurel Broten's Career and what the voters will say to her on election day. Her time in a Ministry has been one disaster after another: The Garage fiasco, the Flick Off campaign, Her bumbling of the coal fire plant promise and the controversial entry into cabinet in the first place, which seems to have created resentment among her caucus colleagues.
07 09 16 Pete B.
I drove through the riding today and I have to agree with Ed and eldavido - Broten signs are everywhere and virtually nothing else!
Granted, lawn signs are not the only indicator but the mere absence of Barlow signs speaks volumes about PC incompetence in a riding that should have been easily winnable against a lacklustre cabinet minister!
Unless Liberals implode in the next 3 weeks, this is a Liberal hold!
07 09 14 Ed Lenarcic
You've got to give the Broten campaign credit - the moment the election was official, signs sprouted like mushrooms. I happened to be a couple of doors away from the campaign headquarters that day and cars were lined up loading signs. Obviously they had nailed down a lot of people who were willing to take signs and workers merely had to rush over and plant them. It gives the impression of a Broten landslide. Having said that, they may well have jumped right to their peak on the first day or two - I'm not seeing any new ones being added. Barlow signs are appearing very slowly.
He is also the only candidate that has sent literature, though he appears to have little to offer beyond being the 'John Tory candidate'. Actually, Broten did better here as well. She sent out her campaign literature under the guise of constituent communication, at taxpayer expense, just a few days before the election was called.
07 09 13 eldavido
Laurels support has held steady in door to door canvassing and with past supporters willing to again put up signs. She has grassroots appeal and is often quite well liked by everyday folk in the riding. The flick off story and garage story where a Tory media strategy that didn't elicit much interest here within the riding except from the old Tory guard who didn't like Laurel anyways. Her environmental initiatives are easy for everyday types to understand and participate in and as such are a lot more popular than many hard core environmentalists might like to think.
The teacher unions are on side and providing support. Tom Barlow does not seem very well organized and is slow getting started despite earlier pre-writ appearances by John Tory trying to boost his profile. The NDP candidate is virtually invisible this time around. What were they thinking? Oh well, plays well for Laurel. And the new condo developments may very well not be a Tory stronghold, and thus further erode the aging Tory presence in this riding.
Locally Laurel plays out quite well and there is no groundswell of anger or call for change here except amongst the old Tory guard/ angry white guy vote, which is nothing new. Laurel is quite safe but is still going all out to win. The momentum is very good. She pretty much has it in the bag.
07 09 10 M.
Mimico Menche - Barlow lived in Mystic Point too around the time of the '99 election - or just after. As did I. Just to correct the record.
There is no doubt that this will be a close race - If Broten Wins - (and that's a big if) it will not be because of her personal popularity.
07 09 05 Mimico Mensch
Tom Barlow lived in Barclay Terrace (a condo on Islington)when he ran for, and lost, the Mike Harris nomination to Doug Ford in 1995 for the riding of Etobicoke-Humber. Later he moved out of the riding. Laurel Broten lived in Mystic Point (a condo on Manitoba) when she first ran in 1999. She moved to another address in the riding after the 1999 election. I know that Tom Barlow moved back into the riding into a condo on the lakefront but I am not sure when. None of this is terribly important, but it is nice to correct the record. Tom Barlow will have a difficult time winning this riding. A Tory tide (excuse the pun) will have to wash over Ontario to float his boat. The riding has changed a lot in the last ten to fifteen years and not just because of redistribution. I predict that this riding will never again elect an New Democrat to either the House of Commons or the Ontario Legislature. Just not going to happen. Irene Jones, a very strong and well liked NDP candidate, managed just 20% in the last election. That might turn out to be their high water mark for this century. There will be no more three way races out here, at least in what is left of my lifetime. On a final note, drive by Tom Barlow's campaign office on Lakeshore and take a look at the signage on his headquarters. The signage illustrates a struggling campaign better than anything I can write.
07 09 05 A.S.
The problem with these arguments about E-L 'trending Tory' is that all those boundary changes + condos haven't helped the Tories so much as they've hurt the once-proud NDP (though the latter gave it a good outperforming try with Councillor Irene Jones in '03). In practice, the Tory and Liberal vote here actually tends to 'shadow' each other, even in the affluent/middle-class northern polls, where a lot of whom Tories hope to woo turn out to be more like spillover 'Cansfield Liberals' Yeah, I know Conservatives like to paint this as some kind of stronghold; but if that were the case, Morley Kells wouldn't have been reduced to a humiliating 32% of the vote in '03 (though Jones may have hurt Kells in her way). Their best bet, of course, is to milk any Flick'd Off Garage Mahal anti-Laurel propaganda for all its worth. And I don't know why anyone's seriously wondering about the Green outcome here, unless it's anything to do with Matthew Day's municipal candidacy last year...
07 09 04 M.
Check your facts Mimico Mensch - Tom Barlow didn't just move to this riding - IN fact He and Laurel used to live on the same street when she Lost back in 99.
07 09 02 Rebel
Dear Mimico Mensch...I fear that my post was somewhat too poetic...I do agree that the most recent Redistribution had no change, but the last several federal ones resulted in the riding taking in more and more Conservative-aligned territory. Initially moving east to the Humber River (1976)...then taking in Burnamthorpe (1987) and finally the old Kingsway (circa 1997). All will be pretty hot to hold for the Liberals this time.
07 08 31 Mimico Mensch
Beware of people who don't know what they are talking about. An earlier post mentions something about redistribution making this riding more likely to elect a Conservative. Completely untrue. This riding is the only riding in the GTA that did not change under redistribution. Not a bit. Not even a tiny bit. No changes in the boundaries at all. Lots of new condos and townhouses, but no changes to the boundaries. So all the Tories who are indulging in wishful thinking, check the facts. You will have to pin your hopes on Bay Street lawyer Barlow. His recent move into the riding will help, but only a little. Very little. Yes, it is true that he lived in the riding in the mid-nineties, but mostly he has lived elsewhere. And he will live elsewhere again when he loses this election. He is a nice guy but there is a lot of truth to the old saying about where nice guys finish.
07 08 31 Lucky Eddie
For such a high profile ministry as Environment, you'd think Broten's name would be well-known. Yet I had no idea that she was the minister until recently with the poorly executed Flick Off campaign. It's hard to imagine how she's kept so far under the radar for so long. Even my super-loyal Liberal neighbour didn't know of her position. Of course, considering how she handles herself, that may prove to be an asset.
But in the end, it probably won't matter. My mother (in this riding) will vote Liberal, as always, because ?they let us into this country [almost 60 years ago] and the least we can do is vote for them?. End of discussion. Of course, while this kind of ?thinking? may explain why Liberal support is at 40% instead of 2%, there is quite a bit of volatility in this riding. All three major parties have been elected here. I think you'll find that, as goes the general vote, so will the local one. And that won't be apparent until we get much closer to voting day. Remember how Liberals led in the polls many times in the past in the weeks prior to the vote. But then ads by the other parties pointed out what the heavily pro-Liberal media wouldn't, and a lot of people changed their minds. Unfortunately for the Tories, their Tory seems remarkably uninspiring. Sigh.
07 08 21 Rebel
I would put this riding as too close to call. The PC candidate is very strong and each redistribution has added more Conservative territory in the north end of the riding (Kingsway et al). The PCs need the NDP to draw off votes in the south end (New Toronto/Mimico/Long Branch) leaving the Liberals with a shakey hold of the centre of the riding - recent polling shows the NDP vote to be robust. This is not a typical riding for the Greens to be strong but generally we should be aware that they are getting twice the vote in polls that they got in 2003...that is going to impact some ridings by generally bleeding the Liberals for the most part.
07 08 21 M.
As for the Green vote - it will be there but not as significantly as you think. I think the greens have made far more progress at the federal level. And Sadly - While the NDP will do better here - they will not have a chance at winning.
Federally the Liberals were in a tight race here - when their candidate was already a frontrunner to replace Paul Martin as Liberal Leader - and Broten certainly doesn't have the profile of Ignatieff.
While it's interesting that the Minister of Environment would have 4 SUVs for 2 drivers - The one thing I think we agree on is that Broten will not lose because of her Garage. If anything she will lose because she has thin skin - and will say something foolish during the writ.
So Yes - I Lived in the riding - I knew Laurel Broten - and I still think she is in a fight. if John Tory can pick up any seats in Toronto - this will be one of them.
07 08 18
Incidentally M., how many community events do you attend in Etobicoke-Lakeshore? How many community consultations have you been to? How often do you read the Etobicoke-Guardian, or listen to local community leaders? Because if you have, I think you'd find that, while people may not LOVE the Liberals, they are not unhappy with them, and are not going to vote them out.
Furthermore, if you actually engaged in any kind grass-roots political work in E-L, you'd also know that the Liberal vote in this riding is very strong, and will not be so easily swayed just because some one wanted to put an extension on their garage, or because they talk like Mr. Bean (which also happens to not be true).
Though the interesting wild-card in this campaign is the Green Party. Any speculation on what kind of factor they might be?
07 08 14 M.
OH right Wing Leftist - your overconfidence for Broten is what's laughable. You are talking about a woman who has the communications skills of Mr. Bean. The only press she can get is bad press - she can barely walk out the door without making a mess of things.
The sad part is - The premier gave her a gem of a Ministry - something a good communicator would have thrived under - But Broten has done squat to improve her image.
This is a riding to watch on election night.
07 07 27 Right-wing leftist
I see the PC wing has come out in full force here. A respectable Bay Street lawyer, huh? Printing that on your campaign literature might actually be a good strategy. If enough people die laughing, the Blue Machine might have a chance.
Key points:
(1) Overall Liberal strength in Toronto. If the Tories are going to target places where the grits are weak, this is not the place to go. Garage Mahal, while hilarious, will be quickly forgotten by the young, small-l liberal homebuyers for whom, the Tory brand will be anthema for a long time.
(2) Tory candidate is a nobody. Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Tom whathisface has no profile in the community. Maybe he's a nice guy, but that and a $1.43 will get you a large double-double at Tim Horton's. If he works hard and gets involved in the community, maybe over time, he'll become a credible candidate. Otherwise, it's base vote for you, Tommy.
(3) NDP candidate is a nobody. Without a credible NDP candidate to suck away votes from the grits, it makes the Tories job that much more difficult. In 2003, Irene Jones got 20%, compared to 14% for Vicki Obedkoff in 1999. Look for the 2007 result to go back down to 14%, or even lower.
As much as it pains me to admit this, but the riding will be Liberal for a long time. Sadly, the only real question is weather or not the Green Party will prove a threat to the NDP.
07 07 07 Angry Ontarian
Laurel Broten is in danger here. If her ill-received ?Flick Off? campaign wasn't one PR disaster too many, her ?Garage Mahal? just makes matters worse. What kind of Environment Minister endangers mature trees to build a multi-story garage? Even her own neighbours are ticked off at her!
07 07 07 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) 2007 will be Laurel Broten's third run for MPP. In 1999, she finished a strong second despite strategic voting advocates and unions uniting behind the NDP candidate. In 2003, she won by a fairly convincing margin without the support of most of the unions who again stuck with the NDP. Broten has lots of profile from her local runs and works her riding hard.
2) In 2007, she has distinct advantages of profile, fundraising and accomplishments as the Minister of the Environment. She also has the endorsements of most of the major unions, or at least accommodation that - while the public sector unions might endorse the NDP - they won't actually provide much real support for them. With her old-style light bulb ban, plastic bag phase out, Clean Water Act and climate change plan, she's been getting pretty major coverage as a Minister.
3) Tom Barlow is running for the PCs, after years of rumours that former Mike Harris Chief of Staff Guy Giorno was after the seat. Barlow is a likable lawyer with a low profile in the community. An expert on privatization, he worked for the Harris PCs on the sale of Highway 407 which probably won't make his campaign literature. He actually reminds me a lot of Broten in 1999: a likable Bay Street lawyer with zero profile.
4) The real surprise in this riding is the NDP candidate. I expect the New Democrats to recruit a star candidate for the riding; anyone from Ruth Grier to Irene Atkinson to Mark Grimes. Instead, they are running Andrea Nemeth, a low-profile NDP riding association member, as they might in Leeds-Grenville or another no-hoper. This seat is one of those classic Ontario swing seats: if the NDP gets enough votes, the Liberals lose and the PCs win. The weakness of the NDP candidate makes this seat a very strong Liberal hold, in my mind.
5) The overall Toronto dynamic is very good for the government. While they are going to have big problems in Northwestern Ontario and a number of rural ridings, there isn't antipathy toward the Liberals in Toronto. The PC Party will have to focus most of its resources in Don Valley West and Willowdale as their main targets, as well as neighbouring Mississauga South, where Tim Peterson will not be a popular PC. The NDP will need to fight to hold both York South Weston and Parkdale-High Park. This seat is not going to be a major target for either opposition party.
6) Local issues favour a reelection of the government candidate. The Trillium Health Centre has been a big win in the community, as has the expansion of Humber College. There really aren't any local issues for the opposition to run on, and they will have to default to traditional province-wide themes of ?throw the bums out? and ?I'll do a better job.?
07 06 11 Panther
Broten will be the first of a few Toronto-area Liberals that will go down to defeat. Setting aside the fact that she has been virtually absent in the Riding since her election, her 'flick-off' campaign that she approved in her ministry was not well received in this community. It showcased her lack of professionalism and sealed her fate as a one-term MPP.
The PC Candidate - Tom Barlow - a well respected community activist will sweep this riding.
07 06 06 LakeLover
A very strong riding for Ontario Tories, a swing riding at the least. Also, over the past 4 years there has been a condo boom which brings in more home-owner density. Enough people are mad at the out-of-control property market assessment for municipal taxes and the Grits lack of action on this file. As long as Tom Barlow campaigns hard, it should move into the Tory fold.

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