Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (100%)
Jean-Marc Lalonde

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 09 Joe
HUGE liberal stronghold where Lalonde hardly has any competition at all. Expect Lalonde to walk away with a victory again, perhaps with as large a margin as in 2003.
07 10 05 Observer
Nick, the numbers I was referring to were projections based on a mathematical model which shifts party support evenly as polling numbers change across the board. These numbers change continually with each new poll, and currently they would project a Liberal lead of more than 40 points in GPR. Will they hold it? I don't know, but I'm confident enough to call the riding.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
‘Observer’ has his numbers off. The gap was not 25 points, it was 40 points. In fact, the gap between the Liberals and the PC candidate, is so large, that all the opposition parties combined could not fill that gap. At just shy of 66%, even doubling and combining the entire opposition vote would be needed just to be competitive. Sure, the Tories will gain here and everywhere across the province, but in a riding like this it means 5% of the vote likely, knocking the Liberals from a high 65% to a marginal 60%. No doubt about who’s winning here.
07 09 03 Rebel
One of the reasons that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell switched to the Tories in 2006 was an increasingly heavy Conservative majority in rapidly-growing suburban Cumberland.
I still give the riding to the Liberals but would note that its thoroughly Francophone character and status as a rural riding are both changing. There is a lot of pro-Tory angst in rural areas, especially in Eastern Ontario and I think the PCs have a chance of taking the Cumberland portion of the riding this time, but realistic expectations for an overall victory are still a couple of elections away.
07 08 17 RG
Although I live in Cornwall in the neighbouring electoral district, I know quite a bit about Glengarry-Prescott-Russell because I work in G-P-R. I am quite certain (75% or so) that the Liberals will hold on here. It is the most Francophone riding in the entire province (French people are actually a majority in GPR) and Jean-Marc Lalonde is popular (easily confirmed by reading any of the local newspapers here).
07 08 16 A.S.
It isn't so much simple social conservatism as 'Mario Dumont' protest populism that could make a difference in a seat like this--but provincially, I'd suspect that the Liberal status quo will hold, esp. since J-M Lalonde and his provincial party has more of a squeaky-clean rep than Don Boudria and his federal party. Why bother voting against him? If JML lost, that'd signify McGuinty's Grits moving into third-party status or something. At worst, he might be knocked below the 50% mark...
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Jean-Marc Lalonde to hold easily.
M. Lunn does make a good point about the federal results, and they will not translate well here. I don't see the gap being closed much, if any, at all. The only way that this might go PC is if they nominate a locally popular social conservative, and that would be at considerable odds with John Tory. With a more right-wing leader on social issues (which would kill them in the GTA), it could be closed. While McGuinty is not very popular here, there isn't any other door available.
07 05 10 free_thinker
This will be very close. The tories just won it federally and we will see what happens provincially. Both the tories and the Liberals have solid candidates but the edge goes to the incumbent. I would call it for the Liberals for the time being but it could say depending on the provincial campaigns.
07 05 09 Observer
Results adjusted from the last election suggest a Liberal lead of over 25 points. However, the Federal Liberals were equally complacent going into the last election. Conservatives DOMINATE in rural Eastern Ontario, and the results of the last federal election show that franco-Ontarions no longer feel the need to support the Liberals by the numbers. I give the Liberals the edge, but I'm leaving this one open on my chart.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Large Francophone riding and very safe Liberal seat. It has shifted to the right federally for whatever reason, but I see little evidence of that happening provincially, although if the Tories can close the gap enough as the federal Tories did in 2004, they may have a shot in the election after.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster