Prediction Changed
10:21 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Guelph-Wellington (100%)
Liz Sandals

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 F.M.
By the way, the greens here are stronger than you think. Their candidate, Polley, is the best of the bunch and the local paper, the Guelph Mercury, just gave him their endorsement.
Plus they have well over a thousand signs, impressive literature that has gone to every mailbox, and a rather large, well funded campaign. His performance at the debates has been very impressive and has won him scores of first time green voters. My real prediction is that Polley will come in second place.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
I'll never understand why it took so long to call this one for the Liberals. The boundary change in this riding meant the rural section that votes Tory was no longer part of the new Guelph riding. This was very good news for Liz Sandals as she now only has to mine votes in urban Guelph. The NDP in Guelph never manage to rise above the 16 per cent level and with the Hampton campaign staggering to the finish line, there's no reason to think Kaken Main-Bowers will get above that level with the weak effort local NDPers have put in. That leaves Liberal Sandals in a straight, two-way race with Tory, Bob Senechal. In a university town like Guelph that tends to be centre/left, it just doesn't leave anywhere near enough votes for Bob to challenge Liz. Bottom line, Liberals are leading the polls province-wide by a wide margain. The Tories and NDP are dragging to the end. Sandals has an urban seat this time and wins by 5200 votes. It won't be close.
07 10 06 Nick J Boragina
There’s a pagebreak here – a long link. But regarding the prediction, I’d say the Liberals have the edge. This is a riding that is surrounded by PC ridings. Liberals will put their supporters in neighbouring ridings into this one in order to win it on e-day.
07 10 06 seasaw
I'm going to predict the sure winner here. It is the people of Guelph. Look at the candidates. Liz Sandals, incumbent, has been a good MPP; Tory Bob Senechal, good candidate and the older people I've spoken with, say he reminds them of Harry Worton, the man who held the riding for the Liberals for 30 years; Karan Mann-Bowers of NDP, intelligent, feisty and passionate, Ben Polley of Green, charismatic, intelligent and articulate. Any of these candidates, will do a good job if elected. It's a shame that only will get that privilege. Right now the polls show Liberal majority, a week ago the two parties were neck and neck. Advantage Sandals? maybe, maybe not. Dalton McGuinty was here on Thursday John Tory yeasterday. McGuinty appeared nervous and scared, while Tory appeared confident and relaxed. Could they know something we don't know? Are the unpublished polls still showing volatility? Wait till election day. We'll know who the winning candidate would be. We already know who will win.
07 10 02 seasaw
It is still anybody's seat; though, the last polls however seems to tip the balance over to Sandals. Other than DeJong, Tory's the only party leader who's visited the riding. The Liberals have sent Kennedy and Smitherman but no sign of McGuinty, it is smart, Kennedy and Smitherman are better liked here than McGuinty. Tory's event was pretty well received. I was walking my dogs today, as I do everyday through Chillico Heights and counted the signs Sandals 3, Senechal 11, Mann-Bowers 1. A week ago it was Sandals 3, Senechal 2, Mann-Bowers 1. Also drove through Woodland Glen and the signs were Sandals 9, Senechal 11, Mann-Bowers 2, Polley 1. It means the Senechal campaign is working the hardest in the volatile areas. It'll be premature to call this before election day.
07 01 01
I would like to clarify something regarding a false claim posted by 'Initial' regarding a supposed endorsement of a the NDP candidate Karan--Mann Bowers by the Wellington Water Watchers. The Wellington Water Watchers is a mulipartisan committee that endorses NO specific candidate. Our mandate is to promote policy change for the protection of our source water and to also promote tap water as a safe and healthy public resource to be used not abused. We DO NOT endorse any specific political party or candidate so please totally disregard the comment posted by the undisclosed person.
07 09 27 D. C.
Funny you should say that, living downtown, the only candidate whose literature I haven't received is Senechal. And no Tory signs in sight. NDP and Green, interspersed with the odd Liberal. And the south end I'd imagine usually goes Tory, but consists mainly of immigrants or second-generation. For those that can vote, immigration may be a key issue there, making me suspect NDP however.
07 09 27 seasaw
This one seems to be very close. Though incumbent Sandals, has done a pretty good job and the rural part of the riding, where Tory support is gone now, while all of the strong Liberal areas of town has remained, it is by no means a shoe in. Centennial Park and University Village areas are very Tory( they even voted Tory federally in '93 ) and the Ward and Old University neighbourhoods are very Liberal. The key is the volatile voters of Kortright Hills, Woodland Glen, Halesmanor, Old Stone Estates, Pineridge, Clairfields and Westminister Woods in the South End, along with the volatile West End sections of Chilico Heights, Parkwood Gardens and Sugarbush. The signs are pretty evenly distributed in all those areas, however the Senechal Team is the team who has campagned in most of these volatile areas, and they've been working very hard. I live in Chillico Heights and I have not yet seen any literature from any candidate other than Senechal. I have friends in Old Stone and Sugarbush and they've only seen Senechal literature. It'll be interesting.
07 09 20 D. C.
The Tories seem rather mired here...the candidate didn't do particularly well at the debate IMO, haven't heard of any sort of Tory gathering or organization and I have yet to see a single Tory lawn sign. Of course, these are just small indicators, but either people aren't showing their support, or it isn't there.
07 09 14 nesooite
A key riding to watch on election night as an evaluation of who wins this election. Historically Tory. Sandals is a weak incumbent but should be helped with redistribution making Guelph more of an urban riding (ie: city dwellers tend to vote Liberal more than rural denizens). Still very close to call.
07 09 12 A.S.
This might not be as too-close-to-call as it appears--in fact, it appears disconcertingly placid next to the astonishing municipal turn to the progressive and whatever that may herald for the upcoming federal open-seat race. Okay, Liz Sandals is the governing-party incumbent; she didn't have a big win, but the rural Tory parts have all been excised and the current PC contender comes from the ex-Canadian Alliance ranks.
NDP would appear poised to build on earlier totals, but might just as well be saving most of their powder for Tom King federally--and then there's Ben Polley, who got the second best Green result in '03. Not coincidentally, Frank De Jong made his first campaign stop in Guelph. All right, things *do* look interesting down below...interesting enough to underline Sandals' safe status quo. She might even look safe while polling beneath a third of the vote...
07 08 21 RyanOntario
too close to call this one but based on previous elections the current mpp could be in trouble. guelph has generally been a swing riding and has been ndp , pc and liberal each time they were in power. so it could potentially swing to which ever party wins the election. oddly this didn't happen the last federal election but it was close.
the mpp Liz Sandals is a quality candidate but so is Bob Senechal pc candidate . looks like this one will be a tight race .
07 08 09 Initial
Guelph once again is going to be a very close race. I don't think there's any real telling at this point in time.
Liz Sandals has quite a large presence in the constituency, and has that added name recognition from incumbency. Barely anyone has knowledge about the other candidates whatsoever. The sheer fact that she is well known will help her win votes. One key thing that could seriously damage her campaign is the mistake over Nestle water. There is very strong opposition to Nestle, and Liz Sandals made a serious political error in siding with them. The NDP will likely capitalise on that issue.
Bob Senechal is the PC candidate here, with almost no name recognition. With the expansion of the south end, it's likely the Tories will pick up a few votes there, and possibly some from disgruntled Sandals supporters. Otherwise, he isn't a well-known candidate, and consequently may not do very well.
Karan Mann-Bowers will benefit greatly from the Nestle affair, and has already gotten an endorsement from the Wellington Water Watchers, Guelph's primary water conservationists. She also immigrated to Canada which may strike a chord with some voters. She may draw more votes from women due to her position on women's rights.
Ben Polley won the highest percentage of Green votes in the previous election (7.0%), and the Green Party may have a great effect on the outcome, drawing votes away from the Liberals and NDP. They likely won't stand a chance at the seat, but may hold the balance of power.
So in summary, Guelph will likely be a tight race between the Liberals and PC. However we can't forget to take into account the NDP and Green party, who both stand a chance of drawing several votes away from the Liberals. Definitely one to watch.
07 07 12 Paul Atarsus
Just saw a report in the Guelph Mercury about the Nestle application to continue drawing water for their bottling operation. (subscription)
?Nestl? Waters Canada's water-taking permit renewal process is likely being delayed both by a crush of public opposition and the need to review a deluge of water-monitoring data, says Guelph-Wellington MPP Liz Sandals.
The process, she said, is a test case for new regulations introduced in 2005, which required Nestl? and other Ontario water-taking operations to more intensely monitor the impacts of pumping large quantities water.?
Notice she said this is a ?test case?... she did not state her opposition to it. Since she has not come out and stated her opposition to this, and many in the community are very concerned with the continued depletion of our water supply, look for the NDP to heavily campaign on this front. This is going to hurt Sandals badly, leaving the PC candidate to come up on the centre-right of this swing riding.

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