Prediction Changed
10:15 PM 24/08/2007

Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Hamilton West (66.7%)
Judy Marsales
Hamilton East (33.3%)
Andrea Horwath

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
Tory’s bomb might be bad news for the NDP in ridings where the PC Party poses a threat, but in ridings like this you’ll see the so-called ‘dead racehorse bounce’. An odd term, I only heard used once, to explain the phenomenon that when a 2-horse race turns into a 1-horse race, that the ‘3rd horse’ tends to get a few extra votes due to the less of that ‘gotta beat them’ feeling. I would rate this as 2-to-1, in that for every two PC voters swayed to the Liberals, only one would rather vote NDP. I’m going against the math from the last election on this one, and I’m predicting the NDP will win based on local strength.
07 10 05 Jer
At the beginning of this election I would have said Andrea Horwath had it in the bag, and she is certainly winning the sign war. However with the recent surge in Liberal popularity (up to 43%?) and all at the expense of the NDP I wonder if this riding might be in play for the Liberals afterall? Then again, Howard Hampton's recent outburst right here in Hamilton might attract enough attention to negate any gains from the momentum of the provincial race.
07 09 25 MK
Horwath may be formidable candidate but I wouldn't rule out Ruddick. He is credible, has some name recognition, and benefits from the successful local campaign organization backing him. Besides, the Hamilton area has a thing for electing media personalities (Vic Copps, Geoff Scott, Stan Keyes, Ed Doyle, Jennifer Mossop...). I'd say this one is too close to call as long as McGuinty doesn't screw up.
07 09 25 A.J.
Can see Ruddick doing well, especially on mtn part of riding. Strong showing may bode well for future run. Horwath strong everywhere else.
07 09 17
Anyone who predicts this will be anything but a NDP victory in Hamilton Centre does not know the riding and is just one of these posters who posts in every race with no regard for the local dynamics. If the NDP were to lose every seat except for two, it would Howie's and Andrea's. She is very strong in Hamilton, and even more credible due to the new alignment of this seat.
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
This riding?s future will depend on the province wide race. Right now the Liberals have pulled out a slight province-wide lead on the Tories, however, should that change, or should the race become very competitive, then history has shown us that 3rd parties see a drop in their vote as they become marginalized outside the debate. The NDP also lost this riding in redistribution, something that?s dangerous when it comes to ?re-election? hopes. At the moment it looks like the Liberals have the edge, but then again it?s worth noting the NDP is polling higher then their last election results.
07 09 09 A.S.
David Christopherson had Ontario's best federal NDP result in '06. With Marsales out of the picture, don't be surprised if Horwath manages the same (except maybe for Howie) provincially.
07 07 27
Andrea Horwath wins easily unless the Liberals can find a truly star candidate to replace MPP Judy Marsales.
07 07 16 Steve V
Howarth is too strong and Marsales is out. This one is going NDP.
07 06 15 Porter
Marsales may be bowing out. The Liberals seem to be facing a great deal of challenge in the Hamilton region and two other MPP's have already bowed out in neighbouring ridings.
>From the Hamilton Spectator:
'Their departures leave gaping holes in McGuinty's Hamilton ranks during the ramp-up to the Oct. 10 election. The exits may explain why the premier, has been courting Hamilton so assiduously.
The Liberals...face a number of strong challenges, will now be scrambling to find replacement candidates.
And the exodus may yet grow, as rumours continue to circulate that Hamilton West Liberal MPP Judy Marsales may also take herself out of the race. Marsales could not be reached for comment.'
07 06 02 King of Kensington
This is probably the most likely pickup for the NDP. The riding boundaries of this riding are very favourable for the NDP and since 2004 working class Hamilton has been trending away from the Liberals and toward the ?labor party.?
07 05 03 R.D.
Look at Christopherson's margin of victory here in 2006. Horwath was a high profile city councillor as well as his protege before taking the Hamilton East byelection in a landslide three years ago. Marsales (if she even runs again) is a weak Liberal backbencher who snuck in on a Liberal tide in the much more Liberal friendly boundaries of the former Hamilton West riding. Hamilton Centre combines the NDP's best polls in the old Hamilton West with Andrea's best polls in the 2004 Hamilton East byelection. This seat is a sure thing for the NDP.
07 04 14 AP
Horwath defeated a candidate with good name recognition to win her seat in the Hamilton east by-election. She also has a long political history in hamilton. This is a federal NDP stronghold. Should be a cakewalk.
07 04 10 PJC
Andrea, who took the Hamiltom East by-election for the NDP, has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate in the new riding of Hamilton Centre, one of the strongest areas for the NDP. Judy Marsales, who took Hamilton West for the Liberals, would have a tough time taking Andrea here.

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