Prediction Changed
10:22 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Stoney Creek (53%)
Jennifer F. Mossop
Hamilton East (47%)
Andrea Horwath

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
I honestly have no idea who will win here. Could go either way. But I do predict 65-70 Liberal seats and about 13 NDP. Therefore Ill say the NDP will win but just barely. The byelection was very strong for them in Hamilton East(64%) which will help greatly and most of those voters should stick with the party this time even though some probably voted simply for the candidate. This along with Oshawa and Ottawa Center this will be their 3 gains in this election.
07 10 08 REB
To Im Never Wrong, Hampton has been in the riding hosting a rally at Miller's office. There is pictures on Miller's webpage and facebook page as proof for you. For AJ, my post was a response to SC-it who said no signs. S/he was obviously wrong. You are somewhat correct though on signs dont vote, but they do create an impression for other voters. Libs had up more signs last campaign (Federally) and lost so I guess your right, they all dont vote what is on the lawn. Considering the Liberal sign coverage this campaign, the Libs may finish 3rd.
07 10 07 Justin
Hmmm, ‘I'm never wrong’. Hampton has been in the riding - it's Dalton McGuinty who has shied away from here although he will be at the Olympia Hall on the edge of Hamilton East/Hamilton Centre on the last night of the campaign.
Let me tell you my observations - it will be narrow but I think Miller has it. Miller is much more known in the riding than Nerene Virgin. She is an unknown person - yes I know that she was on TV but she is not exactly a household name.
Miller is killing Nerene in signage in Hamilton East, especially the ‘all important’ Rosedale area that Liberals say is important to win. Downtown Stoney Creek is also a strong area for Miller. In both Rosedale and Old Town SC Nerene is third in signage.
How about the Liberal heartland, the Greeen to Fruitland and escarpment to Barton area? Nerene is barely beating Crugnale. For example, in the Dewitt to Fruitland and Highway 8 to Escarpment, Nerene has 33 signs vs 25 for Tara. This is an area that the Libs usually do 20-25% better than the riding average. Probably NV's people are excited that they outnumber Tara but her numbers should be way higher, like in the 75-100 range at least.
Take Ellington, Henley, Hemlock, area - a strong area for the Liberals. Tara Crugnale is outsigning Nerene.
The strongest Liberal polls in HESC have a couple of things in common: the presence of Croatian and Italian voters being one of them. These are the polls that are weak for Nerene. And the whole argument that Italian voters being staunch RC's means that they will vote Liberal to save Catholic schools makes as much sense as them voting against candidates who didn't support Same Sex Marriage b/c of their staunch Catholicism - they didn't vote ‘catholic’ then so why would they vote ‘catholic’ now?
Nerene's campaign team is also in paranoia mode: calling people up and accusing them of supporting Tara or Paul or telling long time provincial exec people that they are not welcome to work on E-day, probably because they openly supported Ivan Luksic in the nomination that didn't end up being a nomination.
If the Liberals win this, it's in spite of Nerene Virgin - she has proven to be an ineffective campaigner - her Cable 14 debate is evidence of that.
07 10 07 SC i-ti
This is my last post.
I think we can all agree that most of Hamilton East will vote NDP, and most of Stoney Creek will vote Liberal. Of course, Liberals will pick up in Hamilton East, and NDP will make gains in Stoney Creek. Frankly -those cancel eachother out.
Here is a raw fact that no one has mentioned yet:
In the 2003 election, the Hamilton East voter turnout was less than 50%. In Stoney Creek the voter turnout was 62%. Enough said.
07 10 07 A.J.
REB and previous submitter negate the fact that signs are more of a morale booster than show true intentions. After years (over 25) of working on campaigns at all levels in several municipalities I have made the following observations of the NDP: signs on NDP lawns don't necessarily translate into votes - labour unions usually requests their members take a sign - many oblige but have no intention of voting or vote differently. Have gone to many homes with signs for NDP and they will let anyone put a sign up - I have only noticed this phenomenon in Hamilton. So REB I hope you sit on your laurels for the rest of this campaign since you have it in the bag. I call this one LIB by a slim margin because HESC will want to be on the gov't side.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
I have to lead off with a prediction this will be the closest race in the province on election night. Here's why I think the Liberals will just hang on this time.
In an election where Howard Hampton visits the same 20 ridings over and over again, it's very interesting to note that the NDP leader hasn't set foot in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek in this campaign. Hampton has campaigned on Hamilton Mountain twice, he was in Hamilton Centre a few days ago and he even took the campaign bus to Niagara West - Glanbrook.
Here's why Hampton hasn't been to this riding. Stoney Creek has a huge Italian, Catholic population. In other elections, the Tories would have drained votes from the Liberals with a candidate like Tara Crugnale. That just isn't going to happen this time. Tara flip flopped on the faith based school issue a day before her leader did because she knew it was killing her Italian vote. It's been a case of too little, too late for Tara on this issue. Now let's look at the Hamilton East part of this riding. NDP candidate, Paul Miller is not known in this riding and look for the percentage of NDP vote to be down here. Also keep an eye on how the Liberals do in East Hamilton. You'll see their level of support grow well above what it was during the 2004 bye-election. Hamilton East was once the land of Dominic Agostino and the NDP can't count on winning every poll here. So I'll say that Virgin and the Liberals pull this one out by 300 votes in the most interesting race on election night.
07 10 06 King of Kensington
I'm calling this NDP. The Liberals have really fallen out of favor in Hamilton to the benefit of the NDP. Paul Miller has a background as a steelworker and union activist and being from Stoney Creek also helps. Having an appointed Liberal ‘star’ candidate only insults Hamilton voters further.
07 10 05 REB
Perhaps SC i-t1 was driving around upper Stoney Creek, or maybe Stoney Creek, North Carolina because s/he is absolutely wrong. Maybe s/he is another one of those Liberal organizers trying to create an impression that is incorrect. My neighborhood is in downtown Stoney Creek. Drive along King St from Hwy 20 to Hwy 8 and you find 22 NDP signs on private property, 5 PC signs on private property and 2 Liberal signs on private property. How about Lake Ave. Dr. 11 NDP, 6 Lib and 5 PC. Maybe Mountain Ave. N is the area s/he is talking about; 6 NDP signs, 3 PC (all on apt buildings) 0 Lib. OK I'll try Passmore Ave behind the dairy. 5 NDP, 2 PC, 1 Lib. Lets look at Gray Rd. NDP 13, Lib 6, PC 5. Lets take a run to the north side of the QEW to Lakeside and Oceanic area 3 NDP, 2 PC, 1 Lib. Lets cross over at Greens RD and see; maybe this is where s/he was looking. Nope all I can see is orange signs on Greens, too many to count, I'll go down Barton, opps again more NDP than any others. Must have been Margaret Ave. home to the ward 10 councillor who was described by Spec columnist Andrew Dreshel as pro business, so her street has to be the one. Again lets see, 9 NDP, 2 PC and 2 Lib signs. Maybe I'll head down to Miller's neighborhood. Well lookie here, there is 1 Lib sign in Miller's neighborhood to go with the 18 NDP signs I can count. Hmmmm. Not quite sure where this person was looking. Oh, and the public property thing is an absolute crock. The city has enforced its no signs on public property by-law to the tee this election, so none of any of the parties appear to be on public property.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
I am going to call this one for the Grits. I can tell you in Hamilton there was a lot of anger against the Liberals 2 years ago relating to the Valeri/Copps spat and the question is how much of this still lingers and how much would translate against the provincial party since that was a federal dispute. I still think this will be a lot closer. The liberal vote I think you will find will drop down closer to the provincial average around 40%. This is steel town and I gather a lot of people are concerned just as in Sudbury and the west about foreign companies taking over the shot. Many may feel that the NDP will speak up against this as Dion in my respectful opinion has NOT been strong enough and McGunity needs to give some thought to protecting some of the better paying jobs. Oshawa and Nickel Belt will be NDP this one I think will stay Liberal but it wont be on the scale of the last election I am thinking 33-35% NDP and low 40's for the grits.
07 10 02 SC i-ti
Today's poll once again confirms what is happening in this riding.
Liberals are at 44 percent, while NDP are down to 15 percent. The NDP support across the province and in Hamilton East is dropping fast.
In terms of Stoney Creek, I drove around yesterday, and the only NDP signs I see are on public property and major intersections. Once you drive into the neighbourhoods of Stoney Creek the NDP are nowhere to be found.
It seems like the NDP are trying to forge some momentum, but just like TARA CRUGNALE's recent decision to abort JOHN TORY, these last two NDP posts are clearly a desperate measure.
07 09 30 publius
If a nobody like Wayne Marsden can upset inner cabinet member Tony Valeri in this redistributed riding, then a Paul Miller victory is a no brainer. Miller must be an effective campaigner. Afterall he was able to defeat publicity loving, media darling, blowhard, high profile Sam Merulla. Mossop's ineffectual, lazy, indifferent record has done the Liberals further harm. Vergin's own obvious smuggness over her coronation has further hurt her cause. I for one had been an active liberal now displaying the biggest NDP sign allowed by law. Having a candidate from a leading Italian family in Stoney Creek, in Tara Crugnale, for the PC's will also bleed Liberal voters away from Virgin in her core area. Vergin may win Stoney Creek, but not by enough to offset Millar's lead in Hamilton East. An NDP victory. Not even close.
07 09 30 Justin
In Ontario in 2004 and 2006 the Liberal vote was 45% and 40% respectively. The NDP vote was around 16% in 2004 and 18% in 2006. HESC was barely held by the Liberals in 04 and barely lost in 06. With a 43-33-18 split, this riding is in play.
The Conservative candidate is eating into traditional Liberal votes in Stoney Creek - she is outsigning Nerene Virgin in the ethnic heartland of the riding. Miller is outsiging in the old town and the non-ethnic parts of Stoney Creek.
Nerene has slightly improved sign coverage in Hamilton East but not enough especially since her campaign has been focusing on that area as opposed to Stoney Creek.
Internal polling had Nerene 3 points behind Miller. Nothing has yet changed the internal polling thus far; in fact Crugnale has been picking up traditional Liberal voters.
Very few Liberal party members are helping NV; her volunteers are largely Queens Park staffers unfamiliar with the riding.
07 09 29 lrs
with the recent polls showing a growing Liberal majority from a bare majority two weeks ago , Liberal should hold this open seat.I am assuming the tory vore will be be best 10-15% and it would seem the NDP will not be able to match the Liberals in a two way race
07 09 26 SC i-ti
I find Adam's comments, in the previous post to be utterly humourous.
18% in the polls is NOT ‘flying high.’ In the same poll, the Liberals were pegged at 41%... under your logic, Adam, the Liberals take this riding easily! The reality is - the polls provincially are not on par with the reality in this city or riding.
- The NDP will finish 3rd in Stoney Creek
- Liberals are in the mix in Hamilton East (will finish a strong 2nd at worst)
- Liberals will win in Stoney Creek (too many ethnic voters with strong Liberal ties)
- Hamilton East residents (now a NDP stronghold) usually have low voter turnouts
Collectively, this sets up a tight LIB/NDP race. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here -this will be close.
Dalton is a relatively unpopular leader, and still pulling in 41%. The leader's debate passed, and Dalton didn't drop the ball. Nerene Virgin will benefit from a strong provincial wide Liberal campaign. Liberals win by less than 500 in this riding!
07 09 26 Adam
Paul Miller has experience as a Steelworker, and that my freinds is very representative of many voters and workers in Hamilton. Everyone knows someone, or has been a worker themselves in a Steel/Union job and who better to understand your needs, wants and issues than someone who has been-there-done-that. Oh it dosen't stop there for Paul, he has experience (and a name) as an elected official just like Andrea who jumped from City hall to queens park. Lets see Ms. Virgin (who i LOVED as a child) has been a well paid TV personality, now you tell me how she can relate to someone who's worked in a Mill, been a front line nurse or been on social assistance? All that coupled with the NDP riding high at 18% (SES Research) province wide, massive voter dissatisfaction with the liberals and all three ridings held by the federal NDP, this will be an NDP victory.
07 09 25 A.J.
Funny how someone commented that Ms Virgin had no political experience. She reported the news on CBC for years - sounds like more experience than a steel worker who knows how to heckle. So you have a news reporter/children's show host (Virgin) vs a steelworker (Miller) vs a gift shop owner (Crugnale). I see Virgin squeaking this one out.
07 09 19 RyanOntario
Potential ndp gain for Paul Miller, for a couple of reasons .
Mostly because this area has been ndp over the years and also has a federal ndp mp. Hamilton seems to be a major ndp area and now that the liberal mpp is not running again it will be hard for the liberals to hold on to this seat.
Liberal candidate seems to have no political experience ( municipal, federal or provincially) , since when does being on a childrens tv show qualify someone for being an mpp ?
For pc's they will likely do better in this riding than Hamilton East riding now that it includes Stoney Creek and Tara Crugnale has the experience of running before from previous by-election.
07 09 18 toro
The Jackal is howling against the wind. Mossop was well know and is a fine example of why one should not vote for a TV personality. Virgin is just that, a virgin when it comes to politics and the debates should shed light on this factor. She better keep her day job.
07 09 17 The Jackal
I believe that having a well-known TV personality as the candidate will give the Grits the edge here but this will probably be one of the last seats to be decided on election night.
07 09 17 toro
Dogfight here. The traditional Liberal in this riding is upset due to the party?s appointment of a candidate. The NDP will take Hamilton East. Stoney Creek will not support the NDP and is up for grabs for the PC and Lib. Three way race with the Liberals finishing in third.
07 09 17 R.D.
A lurking issue here may be the sale of both major steel manufacturers in the riding to foreign owners this year.
Paul Miller is a longtime employee of Stelco, now U.S. Steel, and won the NDP nomination with strong backing from Local 1005. A lot of Steelworkers live in Stoney Creek, where Miller also has a pre-existing base of support as a former town councillor. And considering that Miller helped heckle Stephane Dion off the stage of a recent labor rally over anti-scab legislation, I have trouble understanding the comment that he is not ?feisty? enough for Hamilton.
I think Liberal predictions for this riding are premature, to say the least.
07 09 16 QM
Stoney Creek will definitely be Liberal, Hamilton East will be better than the last 3 elections.
07 09 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We think that SCi-ti hit the nail on the head with their assessment (Stoney Creek going Liberal, Hamilton east a Liberal/NDP battle). On a more amusing note, upon reading Mike M's comments that Nerene Virgin was a former children?s television star, we did a wikipedia search on her and were delighted to see she was ?Jodie? from ?Today's Special? (a show we both loved as children). To be completely honest, if we were voting in this riding, we would be tempted to vote for her based on that. Makes you think, if people who are politically aware and conscientious could be tempted to vote for someone based on nostalgia, how tempted would be the ordinary Joe who is not so politically savvy?
07 09 11 SC i-ti
Aside from the Tory/Wynne race, I think this maybe the most interesting riding in the province. There is huge attention being served to Hamilton, and with the recent ?issues? that have surfaced in this riding, this will be a beauty to watch!
Here's my assessment: Stoney Creek will be overwhelmingly Liberal. Hamilton East will be a battle between the NDP and Liberals.
Tara Crugnale, will finish a distant third in this riding. End of story.
Paul Miller, quite frankly is a weak candidate, for a party that holds little pull at Queen's Park (Sorry Paul, I've known you for years). Hamilton politicians are fiesty, loud and passionate -you lack all three.
Nerene Virgin, although plagued with Liberals who are upset about her nomination process, is still a very strong communicator and the best candidate by far. If the Liberals form government, she will undoubtedly be considered as a candidate for a cushy cabinet post (well-spoken, is a double minority in politics, and Dalton owes Hamilton some well-deserved respect).
My prediction: The high immigration portion of this riding (who are overwhelmingly Liberal), and the Sheila Copps-Dominic Agostino Liberals of Hamilton East will push Nerene Virgin and the Liberals to a less than 1000-vote win. The only way Paul Miller can pull this off is if McGuinty slips in polls and there is talk of a minority government.
07 09 10 Mike M.
The addition of Hamilton East to this riding definitely helped the NDP gain some support here. Also note that the 2003 Results are reflective of when Dominic Agostino was the Liberal representative of this riding. After his death, the proceeding by-election netted 63.6% of the vote going to the NDP. Now granted, Andrea Horwath is a popular candidate being a former city councillor, but that does not discredit any claim that the NDP is strong in this area. The Liberal Candidate is not that well known in the riding, other than being a former children's television actor. Also, Federally this area is represented by the NDP and although it was not won my many votes, I could still comfortably predict that the NDP will come out victorious here.
07 09 03 helpfulfixer
Very peculiar race here, made even stranger by Brad Clark's recent comments predicting a Liberal victory in the province. If I had to guess now, I'd say it's an NDP pickup with the Tories finishing second, but all three parties will be focusing heavily on this riding and everything can change in 6 weeks.
07 09 01 A.S.
Let's not go too far with judging the supposed natural NDPness of '03's Mossop voters; she ran under different boundaries, and had those boundaries held, Stoney Creek would still be a Liberal/Tory marginal with NDP firmly in third--provincially *and* federally. Now, if you're talking about the late Dominic Agostino in Hamilton East, I *would* agree about the parked natural-NDP vote--and indeed, it's *that* part of the present seat that, together with federal reflected glory, swings things in a direction that dramatically favours the Dippers. Favours to win, well...depends upon whether (and by how much) suburban Stoney Creek part seizes things up, its Ian Deans past notwithstanding. As for Nerene Virgin, hard to say if she's a little too touchy-feely for Hamilton's blue-collar E End--though race ought not be a pathological problem in the region which brought us Lincoln Alexander; then again, the Linc represented the more affluent W End...
07 09 01 Andy
I see this riding as a three-way toss. Traditional Liberal voters are fuming because Toronto appointed someone with little connection to the community over a longtime Liberal who was endorsed by most of the federal and provincial riding executives in the riding. Some have already joined Tara Crugnale, the conservative candidate; others have joined the NDP camp and others are remaining Liberal but are refusing to help in her campaign and are gravitating to Niagara West Glanbrook and Hamilton Mountain.
It's a really unfortunate situation completely engineered by Toronto. Simply put Hamiltonians do not like decisions being made for them by Torontonians.
The Liberals have pulled another Ralph Agostino in this riding.
With a resurgent NDP and PC in this riding, I see this as a three way race and possibly Nerene Virgin finished third.
07 08 30 Ryan N
Hamilton is usually an NDP safe haven, both federally and provincially.
Mossop was a popular figure in this area due to her previous television exposure as a news anchor. I believe that much of her previous support in '03 was more along the lines of being ?anti-PC? as opposed to being ?pro-Liberal?.
Liberal support has dropped across the province, and I'm expecting that this'll be one of the ridings where McGuinty pays the price.
07 08 27 Martin
I am switching my prediction to NDP in this riding - They seem better organized locally - and I think they will be poised to make a bit of a comeback province wide (win up to 20 seats?). A lot of the mossop voters last time were natural NDPers that wanted rid of Ernie - and they go it - without a polarized electorate this time the NDP have a shot at getting back to their traditional level of support.
07 08 18 R.D.
There has been a lot of controversy locally over the Liberal appointment of ?star candidate? Nerene Virgin. See Andrew Dreschel's article 8/8/07 Hamilton Spectator article:
On the other hand, another local reporter, community paper report Kevin Werner, got himself in some hot water by referring to the controversy as a ?tar baby,? which many view as a racial slur (Virgin is Black):
This may evoke some public sympathy for Virgin, notwithstanding the earlier controversy over her appointment.
As a prediction, I would have to say this is going to be a very tight Lib/NDP race and likely a bellweather for how the Liberals will do province-wide.
07 07 26 The Jackal
Hamilton is becoming an stranglehold both federally and provincially as evidenced by all three Liberal MPP's bowing out. Unless the liberals have a star candidate lined up paint this one orange.
07 07 24 PJC
Paul Miller, labour activist former Stoney Creek Councillor, won the NDP nomination. The Liberals are scrambling to find a candidate to replace Mossop. The party brass don't like the only person standing for the nomination, Ivan Luksic, who lost the federal nomination to DiIanni, claiming the party brass were biased against him. There was talk of appointing a ?star? candidate but they can't find anyone willing to take on the job. Ivan says he just wishes McGuinty would decide, appoint a star candidate or let him stand for the nomination. Call this one for the NDP.
07 06 15 Porter
Mossop is now out. It is beginning to look like the Liberals might be in trouble in the entire Hamilton area. I guess it depends how strong the opposition candidates are but they are certainly acting worried.
>From the Hamilton Spectator:
'In a surprise development, Liberal cabinet minister Marie Bountrogianni and Liberal MPP Jennifer Mossop won't seek re-election when Ontario goes to the polls this fall.'
Their departures leave gaping holes in McGuinty's Hamilton ranks during the ramp-up to the Oct. 10 election. The exits may explain why the premier... has been courting Hamilton so assiduously.
The Liberals... face a number of strong challenges, will now be scrambling to find replacement candidates.
And the exodus may yet grow, as rumours continue to circulate Hamilton West Liberal MPP Judy Marsales may also take herself out of the race. Marsales could not be reached for comment.
07 06 06 Marshall Howard Bader
I was in Hamilton yesterday talking to a number of politically involved people of all three parties. The general agreement is that Jennifer Mossup is toast and that this seat will go NDP. Apparently a locally popular city councillor is running for the NDP (former Grit from what I hear). It seems Hamilton is generally unhappy with the Liberals.
07 05 10 R.D.
I've heard there may be as many as five candidates seeking the provincial NDP nomination in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek. That shows the NDP is optimistic here.
Mossop is a well-known TV personality but is apparently not well-liked within the provincial Liberal caucus. And being stuck on the backbenches may have actually reduced her public profile since her last run. Still, this was a very narrow win for the NDP federally in '06 and the neither Mossop nor the provincial Liberals are not bogged down in the same taint of scandal that finally brought down Valeri and the federal Libs. Too close to call, for now.
07 04 05 Martin
I think that Jennifer Mossop will hold this for the Liberals - But she will feel some heat from the NDP here - which could allow the Tories up the middle - still probably a riding that is too close to call - but I think Mossop's personal profile will secure her a victory here.

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