Prediction Changed
10:14 PM 24/08/2007

Election Prediction Project

Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (55.7%)
Hon Leona Dombrowsky
Lanark-Carleton (44.3%)
Norman W. Sterling

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Joe
A hard riding to predict because there is no incumbent. It looks as if the PC's will be picking up several if not all of the new districts that have been added since 2003 so if we're judging by that we can predict Hiller to be the winner here. Wilson has a shot and this could be a race that goes down to the wire but I think Hiller has the edge going into the election tomorrow.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
Anyone who thinks the Liberals are going to win on account of Hillier must live Downtown in Toronto. Around those parts, Hillier is a scary redneck, out here, he’s one of the guys. Hillier is the biggest and best thing the PC Party has going for it in this riding. Despite math showing a poor PC result last time, the math also shows that this riding was created from half of two other ridings. That makes voting predictions hard to extrapolate, and I feel that if this riding had existed within it’s present boundaries in 2003, the Tories would have held on. The PC Party will not only win this riding, but they will do so with a huge number of votes, thanks to none other then Randy Hillier.
07 10 02 Observer
Actually this is just the kind of riding where signs are a good indicator of organization. LFLA isn't a single entity, it is a consolidation of all the little pieces of central Eastern Ontario that didn't fit into the other ridings. It crosses municipal and county borders and includes multple print and radio media markets. The riding marks a substantial change from the last representation order. Remember that neighbouring ridings like Leeds-Grenville and Kingston have existed in more or less the same name and boundaries for 25 years and have well developed organic political structures. LFLA has no pre-existing, evolved political machines to help the candidates get their message out. The candidates must put their own machine together as they go. In a riding like this the people who put up your signs are the same people who work as scrutineers, organize local candidate visits and spread deniable inuedos about your opponent. Without such a team you have no control or idea what is being said about you in the coffee shops and post offices. Also, the failure of a campaign to show strength on the ground raises questions in the mind of voters as to whether the candidate has the political clout to be a good Member.
07 10 01 lrs
open seat - if any seat to switch for a PC gain this should be one of the few on october 10- candidate may not be a John Tory Red Tory but the PCs will happy to get anyone to be on their side of the house in opposition for the next four long years
07 09 28 BB
Andrew Cox, lawn signs do not matter; I think most people just don't want signs littering their front lawn when there are a lack of signs in a riding. Secondly, look at how close the PC's came last time in the Eve's collapse of 2003. Third, if the PCs are going to pick up any ridings in Eastern Ontario it would be this one due to its Conservative roots and history of voting Conservative.
07 09 21 Andrew Cox
I am not officially changing my prediction from PC, but...
I had the strangest experience driving through this riding. There are almost no signs for Hillier. I probably saw more for the NDP than the PC candidate. And - contrary to my expectations - I saw only two signs for the Lanark Landowners in more than two hours of doodling around. (I was in the area for the plowing match and went for a drive.) Now, I did see signs for Hillier; they are the old Mulroney-era light blue colour, cheap-looking and I only saw the small sized ones. But they were rare, not strategically placed for visibility and completely absent from public areas. That said, I didn't see tonnes for any candidate. But the absence of sign support for Hillier was shocking.
I'm really quite baffled by this, and have to think that it is attributed to the PC riding association stalwarts not backing Hillier's campaign, and not having the resources to get the signs out. The only other possibility is people don't like Hillier and are not taking his signs.
Something to chew on.
07 09 20 Observer
I'm changing my previous prediction on this race. While the mathimatical analysis gives a slight edge to the Conservatives, Hillier is the kind of local MODIFIER that can win, or in this case, lose a seat.
07 09 18 The Jackal
It may make John Tory very nervous but Hillier almost certain to win here as the Reform/Canadian Alliance populist undercurrent is still alive and well in this part of the province.
07 09 14 A.S.
The #1 most likely PC pickup in Ontario--well, hey, we're going by notional '03 results within these boundaries, which are rather hard to believe considering the way this seat's gone federally. (Transposed results aside, had this seat *actually* existed in 2003, it would have been a solid Tory hold.) In fact, the only reason LFLA is 'worth watching' by media pundits is because it's Randy Hillier, not because it's going to be in any way close. The *real* hardcore election geeks will get turned on if, indeed, it *does* turn out to be in any way close. (Why should it be? Well, it's Randy Hillier.)
07 08 20 Rebel
This should be an easy prediction...Leona Dombrowsky's flight to a safer riding should suggest to anyone that the riding will go PC quickly on election night. There is a considerable angst against the provincial Liberals in rural areas - the focus of the Liberal Party is shoring up its urban strongholds. This riding will join the eastern ontario rural bloc of seats that will return PC members.
07 08 19 RyanOntario
This largely rural riding with no major cities is the perfect riding for a candidate like Randy Hillier to run in.
He has a lot of name recognition from his land owners group which has signs on rural properties which say ? back off government , this land is our land? you see them everywhere when you drive thru places like the ottawa valley. This helps him get votes from farmers and small town voters.
also liberal candidate Ian Wilson is from the southern most part of riding and not known in lanark county . He is also an academic/college dean which won't fly in a largely rural area. but i still expect some big name liberals to visit this riding anyways.
07 08 13 Russell McNicol
LFLA will likely be a PC pick-up.
The Southern area of the riding around Napanee has traditionally shown Liberal tendendcies, but the Lanark portion of the riding is old Alliance country and the rural and farming areas in between also make up a substantial number of voters. Randy Hillier has made a name for himself in this riding over the past few years with his leadership of the Lanark Landowners Association. As mentioned before, there are probably only a few ridings in Ontario including LFLA (neighboring Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke would be another)where Hillier's message and policy's resonate with the electorate.
07 05 19 Andrew Cox
Conservative Gain.
1) This riding is a product of redistribution, dropping Hastings and adding Lanark to a thinly-populated collection of small towns and side roads. This is the heart of old Orange Ontario, the home of such symbols of multiculturalism as George Drew's ?the French are a defeated race? speech. While people don't burn barns because the owner speaks a different language here anymore, there is still a strong under-current of anti-metropolis, anti-immigration, anti-government fervour that has found a voice in Randy Hillier and the Lanark Landowners. That's not to tar all of the residents with the brush of reactionary intolerance and threats of violence. But it would be difficult to picture Mr. Hillier having success anywhere west of Peterborough or North of Algonquin Park, where these century-old divisions of race and creed are not so deep-rooted.
2) Agriculture Minister Leona Dombrowsky is running in Prince Edward-Hastings, which takes in her home of Tweed. Which is a pity. I really would have enjoyed watching Leona debate the man who sent her a photograph of a dead deer with her name on it.
3) The Conservatives wound up over a barrel here. If they had not agreed to opening their party to Hillier, they would have faced a number of candidates on their right in several key ridings, splitting the vote and perhaps allowing the Liberals to win. But in embracing Hillier, John Tory faces a candidate on his slate who is too powerful to dump mid-campaign, but prone to saying outrageous and unpopular things.
4) That said, Hillier will win here.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Randy Hillier to pickup.
This is a relocated riding that Leona Dombrowsky has to loath as she is toast. Her government is not popular here at all, and the addition of most of Lanark County kills any chance of holding on. Compounding that is the hard-right candidate for the PCs who was nearly disqualified but was forced to be accepted to prevent a vote split (although he could have still won as an independent). The big question mark is what repercussions this will have province-wide...
07 05 02 Observer
This Riding is held by Scott Reid federally, and includes a portion of the Riding which voted for Norm Sterling. Sitting Cabinet Minister Dombrowski will be opting to run in Ernie Parson's riding. The Liberals are very unpopular in rural Eastern Ontario. The Conservatives can still blow this race, but not likely.
07 03 29 SS
I believe that many constituents here are upset with the Liberal government's inability to decide what to do with Toronto trash. There is widespread opposition to expanding existing landfill sites.
Hence, the PCs have a good chance of unseating the Liberal incumbent.

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