Prediction Changed
12:08 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

London-Fanshawe (100%)
Khalil Ramal

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 10 King of Kensington
Ipsos, Strategic Counsel and Environics have polls showing the NDP in the 18-20% range. This is probably the most marginal Liberal seat in the province and the NDP came within 1,500 votes of taking it. This is arguably the most likely NDP pickup.
07 10 09 F. Declerk
Liberal support had peaked and is now slipping in southwestern Ontario with the most recent polling showing the Liberals down 6 points and the NDP up 5 - ridings like London-Fanshawe which were so close last time may in fact switch hands. There are many signs of an NDP surge, particularly in urban areas in the southwest - local polling in Kitchener-Waterloo and in London has the NDP up in mid-twenties in staunchly Liberal or PC ridings. I have seen Maynard signs popping up like mushrooms after a rainstorm in the eastern part of this riding. I expect, against conventional wisdom that this will be NDP upset win.
07 10 09 binriso
Irene Mathyssen is gone to the Federal level now, it was no doubt her personal popularity that had the NDP vote so high last time. Even though the NDP does hold it there, it is a very marginal seat. The % of votes will be pretty similar in this election, the Liberal drop and NDP rise in the polls will cancel out with Irene's popularity and the PCs will go down too, to the benefit mostly of the Liberals. Ramal holds his seat by 2-3 % although it will be a marginal 30-35% win. NDP 2nd PCs 3rd. The Greens will no doubt take a few hundred extra votes, that probably hurts the NDP and Liberals although some PCs could vote Green because of DeJongs position on faith based schools and a sign of protest. Liberal Win.
07 10 09 Kenneth Yurchuk
Best check out the new Strategic Council poll for outside the GTA. The Dippers are up 8% over last election in Southwestern Ontario. The Liberals are down 8%. A 16% swing is gonna move some ridings. London Fanshawe is gonna be one of them.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
It's funny how every election NDPers in London claim they're winning the sign war and that means seats for their party. Anyone who's been in London during a federal or provincial election knows that the NDP throw up hundreds of signs on union houses and never bother to ask if it's alright.
Every election, this wave of orange signs covers the riding. The truth is signs don't vote and Stephen Maynard is not going to Queen's Park. Liberal Ramal is going to hang on and here's why. The NDP were counting on the Tories to run a good campaign in London Fanshawe. The truth is Jim Chapman and the Tories failed to show up in the 2007 campaign and their percentage of the vote will drop as a result. Sure some of the right wingers will stay home on election day but the soft, red Tories are going to vote for Ramal, just like their going to vote Liberal all over Ontario.
Since this is the only race in the London region, both the NDP and the Liberals have emptied out their other local campaign offices and sent everyone to Fanshawe. It doesn't take much to figure out that Steve Peters, Deb Matthews and Chris Bentley have much better teams than the three NDP candidates who have barely been able to mount campaigns in the rest of London. For that reason alone, the Liberals will be better on the ground on election day, get out their vote and win. I'll say Ramal wins by a little more than the 2000 vote spread in 2003. This time he wins by 3000 easy.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
Into the valley of death rode the 600. Okay so I am not Lord Caridgan (Oh yeah he actually did not ride in) but this squeaker will return London to the Peterson days of a sea of red. NOT By much! PC vote will remain static or drop say 1% look for a solid Green turnout and if they manage to breach 10% this time look for a real drop in both grits and NDP votes. Barring that lets call this 34-35% Liberal 28-29% PC 31-33% NDP. Greens believe it or not are the wild card here and can upset the apple cart.
07 10 06 misterundecided
I drove through this riding today, into side streets as well, not just main roads. If one looks at the number of signs on private property, Maynard has it for the NDP. Of course signs do not vote, but Maynard caught everyone off guard with his Friday announcement that he would not take the recent MPP pay increase. It got him ample media coverage. I have a sense that might have closed the deal for him.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
London is funny town for years I can remember when it sent the likes of Gord Walker to QP then it was dominated by the Peterson Clan then came the NDP This seat could go almost anyway except PC. I think John Tory made it a race between the NDP and Liberals. I read in postings a labour group endorsed the NDP (okay thats not exactly a shock or news) for what its worth. I remember Buzz Hargrove endorsed Paul Martin but that did not elect him last time around so with all do respect take it with a grain of salt. The stats I have read indicate that most unions have a similiar makeup as the general pop in terms of voting. Some vote Liberal, Some NDP and believe it or not some vote CONSERVATIVE so I think one has to discount endorsements. Based solely on the polls it would seem the Liberal as an inside edge also since Hampton has been unable to get his message out due to Tory's jumping on his horse and riding off in all directions I think it will turn out roughly as before with a drop in the PC vote and an increase for both the Grits and Dippers. Liberal by say 500-1000 votes
07 09 27 nesooite
May be the closest 3 way race in the Province, with Oshawa. This should be prime NDP target and they probably could have locked this riding up with a stronger more experienced candidate (eg: Irene Matthyson or Marion Boyd). Liberal candidate also is weak but riding as strong liberal tendency (blue collar, middle class). It is London after all. The PC candidate is the strongest of the bunch but will need to overcome working class trends in the riding. One to watch closely on election night.
07 09 27 ES
Get the facts straight. First off, the London District Labour Council may have all those members, but honestly, how many of those voters are listening to this Council.. I mean, give the people credit. They have minds, and may not always agree with big labour.
07 09 27 seasaw
This may not be as close as it seems, the fact that NDP won the riding federally. This coupled with the fact that Mr Ramal, the Liberal incumbent, a nice guy, but little profile and presence, should put this riding in the w column for the NDP.
07 09 24 SL
As I drove into work in east london today--I passed at least 5 homes that had Khalil Ramal signs in the recycling boxes.
Stephen Maynard's campaign is being labelled the frontrunner here:
?-London-Fanshawe: Liberal Khalil Ramal has been virtually invisible at Queen?s Park. This one is considered winnable by the NDP, where 25-year-old Stephen Maynard is challenging Ramal. Maynard may be young, but he?s already run federally and did well in London-North Centre and worked for London NDP MP Irene Mathyssen.?
-Christina Blizzard-Sun Media Columnist
?New Democrats are doing two things in this campaign ? starting to gain lost ground and also picking off disillusioned Liberal supporters. If anything, London-Fanshawe looks like it has the potential for a strong showing, even if the candidate, Stephen Maynard, is just 25. In the last vote, the NDP finished second, but only by 1,900 votes.?
-Paul Nesbitt-Larking, Political Scientist-University of Western Ontario
?The race in London- Fanshawe, especially, is on many observers? radar. There, the New Democrats are hoping for a breakthrough with candidate Stephen Maynard, in a riding the party snatched from the Liberals in the last federal election for a huge NDP win. The NDP is looming large in London-Fanshawe ?
-London Free Press
Three Maynard signs sprang up on my street last night alone. The Liberals are tanking badly here--and Ramal is an unknown MPP who only was elected because of the near Liberal sweep last time.
That the London District Labour Council has endorsed Maynard will definitely sway the blue collar workers in this riding. The Labour Council has 27,000 members in London.
Maynard will win this seat by a solid vote count.
07 09 13 Allen Rickard
The Conservatives will take this riding as much as it disappoints me. Khalil will come second. The large NDP percentage in the last election was partially due to Irene Mathyssen's popularity and less to do with the NDP's overall. Sure, this is their best bet for a seat in London, and Maynard will do well and surprise compared to provincial trends, however his age and party affiliation will hurt him in the end.
07 09 10 A.S.
Yup, could be interesting--the only seat which saw an incumbent in 3rd place in 2003 could be the only seat to see an incumbent in 3rd place in 2007. Oh, and don't assume that it's the obviously least Tory-friendly seat in London; sure, it's the most blue-collar and NDP-friendly seat, but not only did all London Tories bob around 30% par in '03, third-placer Frank Mazzilli arguably did better %wise than Mike Harris's former leadership challenger Diane Cunningham! Under those circumstances, it might in fact be the *most* likely seat to elect a Tory, through the aperture of a vote split--that'd look weird, wouldn't it? (Well, maybe less weird under a leader like Jim Flaherty who leans more CCRAP than PC.) All by way of saying: don't get too confident about Stevie Maynard floating in on Irene M's coattails (though don't underestimate him, either).
07 09 08 King of Kensington
The NDP polled over 30% in '03. They are polling consistently higher now and they now hold this seat federally. This is the least Tory-friendly of the London seats so I can't see them taking this, but with given how marginal a Liberal seat this it wouldn't surprise me if they came in third place.
07 08 30 misterundecided
Jim Chapman is too right wing for this working class riding. He lives in London West riding anyway. While he may be well known for his local radio and TV shows, that does not translate into being well liked. His book on how he died and came back to life may be a bit over the top for voters.
Steven Manard may have a chance for the NDP, but is likely hampered by being seen as too young or too inexperienced.
The Liberal incumbent will likely win by default, not because of anything good or bad that he did; he's just an unknown.
07 08 24 SCW
Khalil is the parliamentary assistant for the ministry of citizenship and immigration, and has been taking all of the heat in the wake of Mike Colle's resignation for handing out grants to non-profit organizations without a public application process or accountability measures. He was in tough before this scandal - now I think this will be a race between the NDP candidate (a young and likeable guy who would be a great member) and a well know conservative (a not-so-young but well known radio host and opinion columnist.) My gut is a conservative squeeker - with NDP a very close second.
07 08 21 Sir Osis
Ramal may be deemed an unknown, -and he would probably like to be underestimated- but there is, it seems, a cult of personality surrounding him. This may be because he speaks 4 languages, it may also be due to his being so 'affable', 'approachable' and good-looking' -my wife's comments, not mine.
I have yet to meet anyone who had anything negative to say about this guy.
Being active in the community I am oftentimes at events; he was at 4 events I attended just last month.
He is definitely not your 'run-of-the-mill' politician. Apparently, he has also been canvassing every day now for 3 months after his office hours are closed.
As far as oratory goes Winston Churchill he is not, but I believe he realizes this and tries to make up for it in hard-work and solid representation.
When the alternatives are an NDP perpetual student, who wants to be an MPP, and desires to talk to me about property tax without ever owning a house or paying any significant taxes, and between a hand-picked, democratic-process-circumventing celebrity my monies on Ramal.
07 08 11 RyanOntario
due to the fact Khalil Ramal seems to be one of the most unknown mpp's in ontario and this seat was close last time expect both libeals , pc'c and ndp to target this riding.
unsure how the student vote will go , london is full of students from UWO and fanshawe college. personally doudt those votes will go pc and could see it being split between green, ndp and liberals .
this could possibly allow the pc's to win possibly but they haven't done good in london lately and were embarrassed in the federal by-election in london north centre . actually the city of london hasn't elected a conservative federally or provincially since 1999 . so expect the pc's to try hard to change that this election .
07 06 04 Adam
This will be one of the closests and most exciting races to watch. This is TCTC, but i'm going to predict and NDP squeaker.
Andrew is bang on with his call that the NDP will focus, I believe, all of its London resources to some extent in this riding. Like Oshawa, Ottawa Centre, Hamilton & Windsor and a few TO ridings the NDP is going to go full throttle, no-holds-bared aggressive because they have these ridings in their sights and they came close or second in all respectively.
This riding being held by Irene and the NDP federally, so not to sound like a broken record, this will be the tipping point i feel. Irene will be side-by-side with Steven for i would say the whole campaign to add more name recognition. Not only Irene but look for Howard to be a prominent fixture here, maybe even Jack(as he is from ontario and will be helping the campaign i hope). I wouldn't under estimate Steven, Hes an articulate and passionate young candidate (I sat with him at Model Parliament hes a nice fit there), hes got experience running and is developing name recognition here; backing from the Federal MP and to have won the nomination in a targeted riding shows faith by the party and its members. This beinmg the weakest Liberal incumbent means that its anyones game, but with the Liberals in second place, a centrist Tory and a surging NDP (environics 05/18/07 - PC 38%, LIB 33% NDP 26%) I'm willing to give this one to the NDP, this is the most middle-class, NDP friendly part of the city.
07 04 27 J Adams
Chapman has the name ID and in comparison to the Liberal incumbent, is a much better speaker and presenter. In what should be a three-way race, Chapman's name ID will help push him ahead. Chapman, barely.
07 04 23 SCW
Khalil Ramal is widely viewed as the weakest Liberal member from the London area. He also won last time around in a tight three-way race, likely due to a general feeling that 'change' was needed in the province. He still has a good shot at winning, but this is definitely too close to call. Could go NDP, could also go PC. Depends which voters decide to show up to the polls.
07 04 15 Andrew Cox
Too close to call.
1) This was a tough fought three way race in 2003. It must be the number one target on the NDP's list and in the top twenty for the Conservatives. Resources will be focused here by both opposition parties, particularly the NDP.
2) This was the only riding the NDP finished second in by a margin of less than 5% and that would normally tell me they have an excellent chance of picking up the seat. However, the NDP candidate last time, Irene Mathyssen has since been elected to the federal House of Commons. This takes away the advantages of name recognition and experience that she enjoyed. The nominated candidate for the NDP is Stephen Maynard, a 24 year old student who works in Mathyssen's constituency office. While NDP partisans may quibble that Maynard received 23% in the London North Centre federal election, he still finished in third in his only election. I don't think any fair-minded observer would say Maynard is the equal of Mathyssen. Frankly, I'm very surprised the party couldn't woo Marion Boyd to run here. Until the nomination, I had thought this would be a definite NDP win, but now I have serious doubts.
3) The PC candidate is Jim Chapman, a radio show host on the Western station and a talk show on Rogers cable. Chapman also wrote a column in the London Free Press. Chapman's biggest problem will be the seat's demographics. Will the most working class of the London-area seats embrace the noblis oblige ?Red Toryism? of John Tory? The by-election results in Parkdale, York South Weston and even Burlington - along with Ontario-wide polling trends - could be interpreted to show a distinct problem for John Tory with working class voters. Chapman doesn't solve that problem. Ironically enough, former MPP and local cop Frank Mazzilli was probably a better fit for the seat.
4) Khalil Ramal was a weak candidate in the last round, nervous in public appearances with heavily accented English, getting elected in the Liberal wave. While he is stronger in recent public appearances, he still hasn't made a major impression on local voters. Ramal has as a base the Muslim community of White Oaks and did well enough in places like Clarke Road to win last time. Has Ramal improved enough in his four years in office to qualify as a strong candidate now? I'm sure that will be debated heartily for months to come.
5) None of the candidates really have breakthrough potential. None of the parties have picked up this seat without winning the election in years. This is a classic bell-weather seat right now, and it will go with the government.
6) The government's record in London doesn't have any glaring local weaknesses. The Green Lane fiasco seems to have died down to the point that Toronto's closing of the purchase last month was barely touched on in the Freeps. Unless the Liberals do something dumb to bring that back up, there don't seem to be any major vote movers for any candidate.
Conclusion: Too close to call.

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