Prediction Changed
12:22 PM 02/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

London North Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

London North Centre (100%)
Deborah Matthews

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 prognosticator15
Prediction (improved): Matthews has 60% chance of win, Alder about 40%. Decisive factors: 1) student turnout (favours the Liberals as students vote instinctively liberal and socialize with liberal education establishment whose interests Matthews defends); 2) the degree of majority Alder gets in the more prosperous northern part of the riding to offset the University crowd and a couple of smaller residential highrise subsections that tend to vote left. This depends on the degree to which Health Tax and the potential for further tax raises are significant for the majority in the riding, in particular in the north, and THEY ARE IMPORTANT, hence Alder still has a chance going into the final campaign day (maybe, mention as well Liberals shelving Conservative plans in 2003 to encourage home ownership and make mortgage interest tax deductible that many in the riding still remember); 3) the split on the left: NDP at the moment hurts the Liberals with its campaign a lot in this riding in spite of its fairly small chance of winning. Factor that is NOT important unlike many statements to the contrary: private school funding as most people do not care about it and are split (and overall, more positive about the PC program here than in Toronto). This issue is important for the core of education establishment, but these are already counted Liberal votes.
I still give advantage to Matthews due to the demographics and general campaign trends province-wide, but the situation on the ground shows this will not be an easy Liberal victory and (unlike in London West) PC still has a chance here, so I am still inclined to say ‘Too Close to Call' two days before the election.
07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
Last election the Tories managed only 4 points up on the NDP. That’s hardly the kind of starting point you want when trying to close a 14 point gap. London always has weird voting patterns, and that wont change this election, I think the NDP will actually finish second here.
07 09 29 seasaw
Matthews with no difficulty what so ever. This has been one of the safest Liberal seats in the past. Sure Dianne Cunningham and Marion Boyd have been elected in parts of the riding, but Dianne got in because she was Dianne and sorry Rob, you're no Dianne. Marion Boyd got elected because people wanted to punish Peterson for his arrogance. Remember, Peterson held London Centre for 15 years and prior to Cunningham, a fellow named Van Horne held this for the Liberals for some 23 years, I believe. With, the absence of a tremendous candidate and a lack of a major discontent, Matthews could be one of the4 first, if not the first Liberal declared winner on election night.
07 09 27 nesooite
Deb Matthews is a popular MPP with good roots in both London and UWO community. The latter is critical as many students live in the riding although turnout with students will not be high. Bob Alder is a good candidate as well for the PC's but will not be strong enough to overcome Matthews popularity. The NDP do not have a hope here.
07 09 04 BC
It is unlikely that this riding will change colour in the next election. Deb is extremely popular in the constituency and her ties with Western as a former prof make her support on campus all the more solidified. Those who vote are those who have something at stake and it is likely that the more affluent northern section of this riding will predominantly vote Liberal - especially in light of Deb's family and community connections. Alder will finish second with the NDP a distant third. This is a safe seat.
07 09 04
I live in this riding. Although some posters have said that Deb Matthews is well-established in the riding, I have found her to be unresponsive and practically invisible since the last election. Perhaps her forte is organizing rather than being an MPP. Alder has more visibility and is campaigning hard, but he may be too right-wing for the riding. Tory hasn't helped with the school-funding issue, which is going to backfire big-time. Matthews will squeak back in, mainly be default.
07 08 30 misterundecided
It's unlikely this riding will change hands. Deb Matthews is popular.
The NDP will likely finish a distant third.
The highest turnout in this riding is in the affluent north section, likely one of the most white/protestant sections of the city. The Conservative proposal to fund religious schools will not fly with this constituency. Also, it would appear that voters are happy with the Tory candidate at City Hall and as a professor at UWO.
Liberal hold.
07 08 28 A.S.
Yeah, I know it used to be Diane Cunningham's riding; but the way everything's positioned now, the likelihood of a PC takeback looks rather woozy, even if John Tory's leadership appears to sweeten the pot for former Cunningham moderates. Problem is, it would take a real Liberal implosion to make such a shift inevitable--and a lot of that imploding could just as well head in an NDP (or even, if we take Ellie May's federal byelection more seriously than we must, Green) direction. Right now, having earned her '03 entry ticket, Deb Matthews carries an aura of relatively (if not overwhelmingly) safe, all-encompassing urban-vote Liberal status quo--perfectly befitting a former provincial party President and the first Liberal to be nominated for the present election. And it's interesting to consider that she's tipped into being the sole remaining sitting-parliamentary-Liberal kinfolk of the David Peterson household...
07 04 27 J Adams
Alder brings 4-straight election victories against the relatively untested Liberal incumbent. Alder has led important fights in London including reducing the number of body rub parlors and banning smoking in public places a full 2-years before the Province did. Alder has an uphill climb but with the right funding and a strong showing from John Tory, I'll say Alder wins a close one.
07 04 24 SCW
Deb is very well respected, and is a force within the community. UWO is in this riding, and there is strong student support for her.

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