Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Nepean-Carleton (92.4%)
Lisa MacLeod
Ottawa-Orleans (7.6%)
Phil McNeely

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Joe
One of two Conservative strongholds in the Ottawa area. Any MPP who can win with more than 50% of the vote in 2003 should be able to hold on to it in 2007. Lisa MacLeod should win this one for the Conservatives.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
I actually know the FCP candidate in this riding. She is a moderate on economic issues, but far right on social issues, as would be expected from that party. Unlike the other FCP candidate I know from the other end of this province, in this riding it wont make much of a difference. Last time the PC Party took 52% of the vote here, and that’s even when you squeeze in a little bit of a neighbouring Liberal riding into redistribution. As for the personality of the candidate, I’d say that there are many elected officials who many ‘cant stand’. I’ve heard enough anecdotes on that subject to fill a book. The reality is that the people I’ve heard of, have already been elected. Regardless of personality, the winner here will be decided by party – in this case, PC.
07 09 27 Kelvin
Unfortunately, this riding will almost certainly be conservative. I'm a liberal-ndp voter myself, but I haven't seen a single red sign in the whole of Countryplace or Pineglen. I suppose though it's not entirely unsurprising. N-C is one of the wealthiest ridings in Ontario, a demographic with which the Conservatives have traditionally appealed to.
07 09 26 NC42Long
While many of the comments about both the Terry Kilrea endorsement and the strength of the Conservative machine in this riding are accurate, I have recently noticed a strong number of Jai Aggarwal signs appearing on lawns especially in the areas of the riding near Knoxdale and Merivale area. I am not saying Jai is the best candidate nor whether or not he is garnering my support as I am still undecided, but realistically, either Jai is making a big stand or the McGuinty machine is started to impact this well known Conservative stronghold.
07 09 20 EP
As a liberal, I failed to see how accepting the endorsement of Kilrea, a far right social conservative whack-job, is going to make me want to vote for the Liberal candidate. Did you learn nothing from Chiarelli? Or should I take this as a sign of the kind of Liberals Aggarwal is.
07 09 20 Flip-Flopper
Is this the best that Team Aggarwal can do is get the endorsement of a washed up, has been municipal political campaigner? Terry Kilrea has found a home and that is in the Liberal Party of Ontario. A record flip-flopper himself (a la 2006 Mayoral election)...Kilrea still seems upset at local Conservatives over their lack of support and enthusiasm for his Mayoral bid. Kilrea's endorsement of Aggarwal is great news for MacLeod and her team....
07 09 17 rhebner
Election predictions cannot based on feelings or hearsay, they have to be based on hard current and historical data. The 'hard' fact is that both MacLeod and her federal counterpart have cleaned up in the last few elections. Very little has changed in this riding that would diminish their healthy winning margins.
The religious school 'issue' notwithstanding, the Tories will clean up in this riding. Perhaps not with the margins of the last few elections, but they will certainly win.
07 09 17 J Gray
N-C Politico or N-C Resident, whatever you want to go by ... You must have posted this Jim Watson-style ?gossip? before the Barrhaven Independent published a photo of every major conservative in the riding endorsing MacLeod at her HQ opening and of course before she trotted around with all those Councillors you refer to at weekend events (anyway, I think it's cute that you've asked to get your picture taken with all of them, and of course they politely agreed).
Anyway, welcome to Craig Henry, Trend Arlington, Tanglewood, Prince of Wales and Country Place and Osgoode and Rideau Townships, apparently the Liberal candidate does not know they are in his riding - judging by ZERO presence.
Prediction, if I judged by Lawnsigns on Flodden, 60%+ MacLeod. Rest of the riding: MacLeod 50%+ after she pulled off the autism Centre with Councillor Harder and the former NDP candidate.
I think the Greens will come second- Kubanek is the only alternative when considering the school question and the issue of understanding local issue.
07 09 15 N-C Politico
I hear that many conservatives in the Nepean-Carleton are leaning to the Liberals because they dislike Lisa MacLeod and because the education issue is really a big issue. I've even heard that John Baird and Pierre Pollievre can't stand her and that some of the city councillors in the area jumped the gun in supporting her. More telling is the fact that a thought to be, long-time Conservative, in Terry Kilrea, who actually lives in the riding, is campaigning against Lisa and has even canvassed with the Liberal candidate. I think Lisa and her people are taking this riding too much for granted and it might come and bite them in the behind on election day.
07 09 09
N-C Resident . . . to live and to know are two very different things. Your analysis is wishful thinking at best, and pedestrian at worst. 1) Harris and Harper are very popular among NC voters, so is John Tory . . Dalton, well not so much. 2) the Tories held the seat prior to the by-election and the Liberals ran a far bigger name than MacLeod and she still won big, she's running against a little known newbie, who has no experience in the riding this time around 3) Pratt vrs Poilievre, you should check the united right tally in '97 and '00 before making a David and Goliath assumption, 4) historical numbers '99- Baird with 62%, '03 Baird 54% and '06 MacLeod 58%, shoots down your ?protest vote? theory 5) MacLeod is actually popular and she has a decent profile, she's seen as Tory's eyes and ears in Ottawa and every major conservative in Ottawa (ie Lebreton, Poilievre, O'Connor, Sterling) is predicting she's going to a Tory cabinet. So, while N-C resident goes out on a limb, this seat is MacLeod's. How far over 50% . . . well that's how well the provincial party fares . . .
07 09 05 Mike P.
N-C Resident you have got to be kidding me....Lisa MacLeod will hold this riding and I predict will take 60% of the vote.
Why this bold predication? ... Second, Jai who? The Liberals hung a ?No experience necessary? sign when they held their nomination meeting and subsequently elected a candidate with next to no public profile. Jai Aggarwal may very well be a nice man, but his profile is zero compared to the hard working MPP in MacLeod.
As for the Pratt vs. Pierre point, it simply isn't historically valid, Pratt was lucky to hold the seat being a Liberal, Nepean-Carleton has traditionally been a strong hold for both provincial and federal Conservatives. But I guess that's the type of comment you get when you have people from Toronto running your campaign, eh Jai?
07 09 05
N-C Resident must have not been a Nepean resident for long. Lisa MacLeod won against the city's former, well-known police chief with THE highest majority in the province. Mike Harris is still extremely popular in Nepean Carleton, despite the spooky tactics of N-C Resident. Liberals are running a nobody campaign. In fact, the Liberal candidate's first literature piece does not even have the Liberal logo on it. What a joke!
07 09 04 N-C Resident
Lisa won a by-election, which are often exercises in protest votes against a current government. Its no wonder that her majority was larger than Baird's. Given her leader's Harris-like platform to find ?efficiencies? to cut, all while removing funding from the public board to create more school boards (an inefficiency in itself), it wouldn't surprise me if the voters of Nepean-Carleton produce a shocker. They've done it before one way (federally, Poilievre over Pratt), why not the other way?
07 08 23 A.S.
John Baird earned, after Ernie Eves, the highest PC share in '03; Lisa MacLeod did even better in the byelection to replace Baird--and on top of that, she did even better, percentagewise than John Tory did in the byelection to replace Eves (57.6 vs 56.3)! Factor in 50%+ federal Tory results as well, and it's safe to say that MacLeod's opponents would very much wish they were somewhere else--baking cookies, perhaps. Oh my...
07 08 20 Rebel
Lisa MacLeod has made this riding utterly safe in the short period of time that she has been a member. Her advocacy for autistic children shows her to be a compassionate Conservative who has helped keep this issue alive in the Ottawa-area press. The riding itself was strongly PC beforehand and is made stronger still be redistribution adding Riverside South and some rick-ribbed Tory rural polls in SW Gloucester. Easy win...maybe 60%+
07 08 02 Trail Road Tory
MacLeod takes this seat handily. The Liberals only nominated a candidate this week and he has no profile and no experience in the riding. MacLeod on the other hand is everywhere and has been since she's been elected. She'll win by a larger margin than before (and she won with 58% of the vote last time). My guess, if Tory forms government, MacLeod becomes a minister.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This was amongst the top 5 best showings for the Tories provincially in both 1999 and 2003 and federally in both 2004 and 2006, so they would need to pretty much be wiped out in Ontario to lose this one.
07 05 02 Angry Ontarian
Ever since MPP Lisa MacLeod won a massive by-election victory over the Grits, she's been a force to reckon with at Queen's Park. And Nepean-Carleton is a natural Tory constituency.

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