Prediction Changed
7:19 PM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Niagara Falls
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Niagara Falls (78%)
Kim Craitor
Erie-Lincoln (22%)
Tim Hudak

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Old Willowdaler
I am going to stick my neck out here and call it Liberal but just barely. This area honestly should have slipped back PC I beleive but with McGunity into Majority territory its likely very few seats will change from last time around. The grits will go down a few the NDP up a few and you will see some trading back and forth but this one seems likely to remain static
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
There are 3 distinct sections of the Niagara Falls riding. The city of Niagara Falls is a centre/left voting area. Liberal MPP Kim Craitor has a union background and pulls a large block of votes from the NDP in Niagara Falls. People there aren't attracted to Bart Maves who was a willing soldier in the Common Sense Revolution and a hard line right winger. There's also a large Catholic population in Niagara Falls that is strongly against John Tory's plan to fund private schools. This issue will cost Maves a block of votes in this city.
Then there's the new section of this riding in Fort Erie. Craitor will edge out Maves here because without local boy Tim Hudak on the ballot, Fort Erie will return to their Liberal roots. Maves will clean up in Niagara-on-the-Lake but it won't be nearly enough for him to make up losing in Niagara Falls in Fort Erie. Look for Craitor to win by 3500 votes.
07 10 07 GP
This Riding might have went to the Conservative candidate had John Tory not stumbled out of the gate with his education policy. Niagara will continue to be Liberal as the Conservatives clearly will not form the government. I do not think that trying to recycle Bart Maves ( a former Mike Harris MPP ) really helped here, they might have done better with a fresher face .Thats all water under the bridge now. Craitor wins as he has maintained a 5 -6 % throughout this campaign
07 10 06 King of Kensington
I'm calling this one Liberal. This is a very working class riding but where the NDP is pretty weak. John Tory is too upper crust/noblesse oblige to appeal to working class voters with rightwing populism.
07 09 25 RyanOntario
Well something to think about the liberals are polling around 40% province wide and pc's slightly behind depending on poll. and a lot of the liberal support is concentrated in certain areas.
that means seats like this one are more in play than the last election.
this seat has bounced back and forth the last few elections and is by no means a safe pc or safe liberal seat. also Tory even visited this riding and has visited it a few time before as well.
and some are talking like there is no ndp candidate here but there is one so it remains to be seen how this will all effect this race.
07 09 24 George P
I know many people are calling for a close race in Niagara but too be quite honest that is not going to happen this time.I suspect that the NDP vote this time will go to Kim Craitor .I think Tim Hudaks early exit from his Riding has helped Craitor who has been called on time after to time to help solve problems for a riding that he was not elected to .This gives him a leg up on Bart Maves and should be enough to put him over the top.
07 09 23 JDaku
I find it interesting that the Liberals are not putting up a fight in Oshawa thereby allowing Sid Ryan and the NDP to potentially knock off the PC candidate. With that being said, could a return favour be currently playing out in Niagara Falls. The NDP candidate does not exist therefore allowing Kim Craitor to grab these votes and hold onto his job. I know that the NDP candidate did not get nominated until a week before the writ was dropped, so his signs could very well be on order and could be delivered any day now. However, there are only a couple weeks left and it may be hard to rally the NDP troops for a campaign that is unorganized and a candidate that is unknown (from Grimsby). Sign advantage is strong in Kim's favour in Niagara Falls, Kim and Bart are equal in Fort Erie, Bart's favour in Niagara-on-the-Lake. All signs point to a Kim Craitor re-election.
07 09 21 RyanOntario
Potential pc gain , for candidate Bart Maves .
This riding is one which was pc before 03 election and one the conservatives won federally the last two elections.
Guess this is the only riding the pc's can potentially gain in Niagara region as other two have longtime mpp's.
07 09 19 tommy braybrook
I think Bart Maves is making a mistake thinking that he will take NOTL hands down. There are a lot of Craitor signs going up in the Town - many in traditionally NDP yards - and other unexpected places. Craitor's support here is stronger than one would think, he's made a lot of friends the past four years - friends who may not be influenced by happenings in Queen's Park and leadership issues.
Add in bad memories of Bart Maves (Mike Harris) and Craitor will do better than expected. May be just enough to buck any trend shaping up province wide.
Of course, Niagara falls is still the battleground - but NOTL voters can tip the scales in a close election.
Craitor has an edge.
07 09 15 Initials
I hate to correct the corrector, but Hudak lives in Wellandport, NOT Wainfleet, and Wellandport is well within the boundaries of Niagara West Glanbrook. He moved there with his wife Debbie some years ago. This a parachute does not make.
07 09 14
Hudak lives in Wellandport..not in Wainfleet
07 09 12 Corrector
Just a few points to correct some of the previous posters.
1. Hudak lives in the Wainfleet, which is in the Welland riding. He has decided to parachute next door into the safe seat of Niagara West Glanbrook rather than face Kormos.
2. Gates did make a big difference in 04 and 06. His share of the vote in each of those elections beat the NDP provincial average by enough to keep the Liberals from winning. In the 93, 97 and 00 federal elections and 99 and 03 provincial elections, the NDP candidate in Niagara Falls scored below the provincial average for the NDP, largely because they lacked a campaign team and a GOTV strategy. That was corrected in 04 and 06, but that campaign team has disappeared along with Gates leaving the NDP's 07 provincial efforts in the dumps. This will surely work to Craitor's benefit. He already enjoys the support of many soft New Democrats, having long planted NDP signs into his own front lawn well into the 1990s.
A Strong NDP candidate would have delivered the riding to Maves. But it's advantage Craitor at this point. Unless the political landscape changes dramatically, he should hold on, but just barely.
07 09 12 KJ
This is one of the most bellweather ridings in the province. As the government is going to go, so too does Niagara Falls. This is really the only Niagara riding up for grabs, and the state of the polls on the week heading into Oct, 10 will decide if Kim comes back or if it's the return of Bart.
07 09 11 Red Tory
A volatile riding in recent elections, this one is up for grabs, and should be a bellwether of electoral fortunes for the Tories and Liberals in 905 and perhaps the province itself. Neither of the two candidates have distinguished themselves as charismatic or especially competent legislators. As a result, attitudes toward Mr. McGuinty and Mr. Tory will likely determine who takes the seat at Queen's Park.
07 09 09 A.S.
Re Wayne Gates in '04/'06: actually, he did about par for a Layton candidate in this kind of seat (and 20%+ was more typical than atypical for the pre-1990s NDP in NF)--what really elected Nicholson was a weak non-incumbent Liberal opponent in '04, with incumbency in Harper's banner year of '06 doing the rest. But that's federal. Provincially, it may be winnable too, but you can't exactly call Niagara Falls a Tory stronghold; Maves lucked in on the Mike Harris momentum, though it isn't like Kim Craitor didn't luck in on the McGuinty momentum, either. Just consider the seat to be a belwether (though pre-Rae, it would have been solid Liberal). And the addition of Fort Erie makes negligible difference, as that (aside from the agricultural interior) would, in '03, have been inherently ?McGuinty populist?, too.
07 09 08 JDaku
Well it's official! The NDP could not find anyone to carry their banner in the 2007 election so they settled for Mr. Piche from Grimsby. He will be spending all of his time throughout the campaign convincing voters that he will move to the riding after the election. I guess there were no sacrificial lambs within the riding for the NDP. This will definitely work in Kim Craitor's favour. With a no-name NDP and a Mike Harris Conservative in Bart Maves, the bulk of those left-leaning votes will go to Kim.
07 09 05 Nick J Boragina
I?m posting here to remind everyone that numbers count. I don?t know much about the area or candidates, but seeing such a low response for the Liberals, I feel that I need to point out that there is a 10 point gap to close for the tories to win here. It is not a lock for the tories by any standard.
07 08 23 Marto
Ok you didn't just compare Kim Craitor to Peter Kormos?? Come on Kim is a nice guy - but he is no Peter Kormos - I read the local papers too - and I know Kim is a bit of a maverick - but he just doesn't have 1) the same name recognition as Kormos 2) A riding that will predominantly vote for one party.
Kim Craitor has been a no-show at votes at QP - yet he can be seen on the links at Legends (on the taxpayers dime no doubt) constantly. So you know his chances of ever doing anything meaningful at QP are slim to none.
If McGuinty manages anything less than a Majority Kim Craitor is Toast!
07 08 20 RyD
Has everyone lost their minds?
This one is a shoo-in for Kim UNLESS things go horribly wrong at the top levels (ie, it ends up being a PC majority). He is well known in the region for being a real riding-driven MPP. People in Niagara are parochial. If you need proof, two words: Peter Kormos. Kim has been a strong defender of local tourism and local agriculture. As long as he runs on his record and the Party doesn't let him down, he'll be back.
Given the overall strong standing of Liberals on this website, this riding, more than any, should be changed from TCTC.
07 08 19 NRussel
Niagara Falls is an historical swing riding. John Tory will out perform Dalton McGuinty in this Campaign, hence Craitor face goes down to Bart Simpson Maves.
07 08 10 JDaku
It is true what Martin says about Hudak living in Niagara West Glanbrook. And I agree that Tim is a smart politician. So smart that Fort Erie's hometown boy has decided two years ago to abandon the place where he got his start. And yes, Craitor did take the pay raise, as did all Liberals and Conservatives. I believe that there is also two of the eight NDP MPPs which are taking the raise. I guess Bart can throw that at Craitor. Perhaps Kim can remind Bart of the rally which him and Hudak put together at Brock's monument urging the Federal Government to send all of our troops to Iraq a few years back. I'm sure the supposedly 'blue' Fort Erie will be happy to hear about that one. And as far as this riding going blue with Nicholson, that had more to do with a strong NDP candidate in both 2004 and 2006 in Wayne Gates. He garnered approximately 12000 votes where the NDP usually run around 5000-6000. The bulk of these NDP votes would have come from the Liberals. This riding will be close, but I still think Craitor pulls it off.
07 08 07 Martin
JDaku is out to Lunch - Hudak lives in Niagara West Glanbrook - that is why he is running there. If Hudak had run against Craitor - he would've won handily.
Bart Maves is a sold candidate under the Tory Flag. and if McGuinty goes down - Niagara falls is going blue.Bart would likely make Cabinet this time - given his previous experience in government. In fact even in a liberal Minority situation - this one goes to Bart
07 08 02 Paulie
I have to disagree with JDaku here. Craitor doesn't have it locked up. Poll after poll show the Grits and Tories are virtually tied province - wide. Though there may be many Liberal supporters in Niagara Falls, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Fort Erie are strong Tory strongholds.
How else do you explain Rob Nicholson being elected in both 2004 and 2006?
As for Craitor, he likes to say one thing in the riding, and do the opposite at Queen's Park. For example, he claimed in the media he did not support the recent 25% pay hike MPPs gave themselves just before Christmas. Yet, he took the pay hike - without a peep. That's not the kind of leadership the people of Niagara Falls, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Fort Erie deserve.
Also, the President of the Niagara Falls federal Liberal Association recent got into trouble by writing on his blog that McGuinty's double standard regarding smoking policy - where you can smoke at a Government Casino, but not in a private establishment - would cost Craitor his seat.
It ain't just this Tory saying it, but Craitor's own Liberals - Craitor is going down.
07 07 29 JDaku
This riding is going Liberal. Even Tim Hudak knows he can't win here against the strong Liberal support in Niagara Falls. That's why he's moving to Niagara West Glanbrook where even Dalton McGuinty painted blue could win under the Conservative banner. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Bart Maves the only Mike Harris/Ernie Eves Conservative that is trying to reclaim their seat from the last election losses. John Tory does not want these people surrounding his more moderate, Bill Davis style of leadership. I'm sure that he would be happy to shed a few of the his current MPPs which share the same right wing views of his previous Conservative leaders. Plus Kim Craitor is a popular politician in this riding. He is not afraid to vote against his own party when he deems that they are in the wrong (the same cannot be said for Bart Maves or Tim Hudak for that matter). Liberal win here even if the province goes blue.
07 04 20 SGBadger
With the Dalton McGuinty screw-ups over the last 4 years and the addition of Fort Erie to the Riding I am confident the Bart Maves can take back the riding for the PCs
07 04 05 Martin
Leaning to the PCs on this one for now. Kim Craitor has tried to position himself as a consistency guy (wisely) but I think that the addition of Fort Erie - and the fact that Bart Maves is running again (one of the few Torys returning with a legitimate shot) will deliver this as one of the PC pick ups in 07.
Bart wants this back - which is evident by the fact that he has opened a campaign office already.

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