Prediction Changed
12:05 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Oak Ridges—Markham
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Oak Ridges (61.4%)
Frank Klees
Markham (25.1%)
Hon Michael Chan
Vaughan-King-Aurora (9.5%)
Hon Greg Sorbara
York North (4%)
Julia Munro

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
Another big chunk of Frank Klees's riding in here and Helena Jaczek campaigning for the Liberals again. Now this redistribution seems to have much more PC favorable territory from the 4 ridings that have merged into it however a few things change this race towards the Liberals: Helena Jaczek, who must be at least somewhat popular to almost beat Frank Klees is running, Lots of growth here: 170 000 people(!!) growth (particularly this new immigrant growth) favors the Liberals, recent Markham byelection showed PC vote down significantly in that part of this new riding, no Frank Klees, Phil Bannon may be a good candidate but Frank Klees is a heavyweight in the party and is clearly a stronger candidate. And of course Faith Based funding, everyone’s favorite election issue. And again like a lot of other ridings that have close races projected, there was no FCP candidate last time in almost all of the new riding and like I’ve posted about 4 times already, they will only take 1-2% of the vote but that could be enough to spoil it for the PCs. Not to mention the campaign was clearly stronger for the Liberals. Jaczek wins by about 3-4%. Another seat that probably should have been won by the PCs this time.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
I am going to go against the grain on this one and call this by 1000 or less for the PC's. The Tory vote last time out means this shuold have been a cake walk for the PC's. But as we all know John Tory has been the PC's worst enemy on this campaign. While I do think many PC types will NOT vote and the PC vote will drop I think they will barely squeak in notwithstanding the weakness of hte candidate
07 10 03 david gates
Liberal. Helena Jaczek wants to be in McGuinty's cabinet real bad. She may get her wish. Any of the other candidates for the PC Nomination could have won here. I have heard much negative coming out about Bannon. I was willing to put it off as bitterness but it just keeps coming. A Tory wave might have carried Bannon but that is not happening now.
07 10 02 Old Willowdaler
Okay I do NOT know this ridiing well but have carefully read the comments of others here. What strikes me is the high PC vote which should in my opinion mean they hold this seat. Now a few things have struck me revolving around Klees and the Liberal candidate. If she almost beat Klees then those numbers are deceptive and its a lot closer than those numbers indicate. First off Markham is liberal red and will impact this seats outcome. Secondly what I know of Oak Ridges and environs is that they will likely be put off by the funding issue and will likely stay home which will cut into the PC vote. Tory's about face MAY--- MAY I stress annoy some into voting Liberal as they will see him as a bigger liar than Dalton but it may also convince some to return to the fold. What struck me was the fact this riding has more in common with other GTA ridings such as Markham and Thornhill then with say Simcoe. ALso I know that the areas of this seat that come from Sorbara or Chan will vote 2 or 3 to 1 Liberal so if they come out in force that percentage may cut down the PC lead as they are in the more urban area which is easier to get to the polls. Many may also want to send John TOry a message with their boots on the PC's behind. Although my gut was to put this in the PC camp based upon others comments it would seem that 50% is not reflective of reality so I think either one could hold this right now. Its certainly not a PC lock as the stat say
07 10 01 JC
Helena Jaczek a new candidate? I think not. This new riding is made up of most of the old Oak Ridges riding and last time she barely lost up here in the northern parts of the old Oak Ridges riding. Also why she lost last time around was well because of Klees but, this time around he is not running in this new riding and Helena is. Most of the voters will remember her from last time around. Helena will win this time around because she has learned from last time around and with some negative press around Bannon this is a Liberal seat.
07 09 30 Dr.laguppillai
Both liberal and PC candidates are new. Riding, for most part, was previously represented by Frank Klees. The PC candidates, the current Deputy Mayor of Whitchurch Stouside, has a base and his campaign seems to be stronger.
07 09 23 JC
I'm going to agree with john on this one. Helena is well respected in this riding and given the negative press around Phil Bannon, this riding will go Liberal, despite the fact that there are some area's that vote PC. As for the signs well in recent days more and more Phil Bannon signs are propping up but ,that still will not be enough to make this A PC riding. If Frank Klees had decided to run in this riding sure I would say this riding would go PC but, that is not going to be the case.
07 09 16 RyanOntario
Going to put this one in the pc side , sure Helena Jaczek is running again but last time the riding included more liberal richmond hill and the liberals were polling higher that election . this one the pc's are doing better in this area but i'm still unsure about about ridings like markham and richmond hill.
The only parts of the riding that could go liberal is Greg Sorbara's old riding but only parts of it are including in this one.
07 09 16 john
I agree with most residents in the new riding of Oak Rides-Markham that this riding will swing Liberal. The current MPP is Frank Klees and he was smart enough to read the signs on the walls and run back home to Aurora-New Market, where his former campaign manager was destroyed twice by MP Lui Temelkovski and the Liberals in the last two Federal elections in Oak Ridges-Markham.
Liberal Helena Jaczek is well respected in York Region as a doctor and former 15 year Dir. of Medical Health for York Region. Helena has also won the sign war in this very large riding hands down 10 to 1 signs after the first week of the campaign. The Conservatives are not to be seen anywhere in Oak Ridges-Markham, and with integrity problems as published in local Stouffville-Markham newspapers about the PC candidate's past and questionable issues around the Conservative candidate, this riding will be won by the Liberals. I would be suprised if this riding was a close race? Liberal Helena Jaczek will win comfortably here.
07 08 22 abcd
This is my home riding. Federally, this riding went to the liberals by a huge margin in the 04 election and still by a substantial margin during the disastrous 06 election. Since this is under federal boundaries, it will be difficult for a conservative to win. The Liberals pile HUGE majorities in the Markham and Richmond Hill Portions of the riding. These majorities are just toooo large for the small populations of King and Stoufville to overcome. But the bottom line is that Oak Ridges markham can never elect a CONSERVATIVE. This area is a centre-right area, so maybe the PC can create it into a tight race, and maybe win it. This area is diverse and odd that it holds some very conservative views. In the end, it all comes down to who seems to be more right wing... whoever that is will DEFINTELY NOT win this riding. Oak Ridges Markham like centrist to centre right politicians not right wingers.
07 08 15 Eyes on Ontario
Helena Jaczek stepped down as Medical Officer of Health during the SARS outbreak so that she could campaign to be a Liberal MPP. With a shortage of health care professionals, she made a bad choice that wrote her fate in the last election. Be sure to see repeats of her bad choice at debates and in the media this time around. Choosing politics over public safety is bad politics. The Tories have this one.
07 08 12 A.S.
Helena Jaczek might have the name recognition and 'incumbentesque' advantage; but when it comes to Liberal congeniality, she chose the short end of the redistribution stick w/OR-M--even the Markham parts were those that stuck by Tsubouchi in '03. Maybe there's an odd strategic logic to that; besides, growth'n'such means that perhaps half (or more?) the riding's population wasn't resident in '03, and the newcomers are more 'inner-905' (ethnically diverse et al) in that hitherto McGuinty-swinging way. But in a seat where the notional PC result last time was just short of 50% (i.e. under current boundaries, it would have been the only Tory seat wholly within York Region), it remains a tough haul, with only explosive growth standing in the way of its being an impossible haul.
07 07 31
Helena Jaczek is back again. She was York Region's well respected Medical Officer of Health. Last election she lost to Frank Klees by a squeaker but came very very close. This time she isn?t facing an incumbent Tory MPP (even though Klees is full of hot air). I flag this one for the grits.
07 06 29 BloggerBill
If any candidate other than Phil Bannon won the nomination then it would have been a PC pickup. Mr Bannon has no support with the current workers in the riding and his use of Alzheimer patients killed his chances outside of Stouffville. He pretends that he is a Frank Klees clone but even Frank is deeper than Phil, who is as deep as a puddle on a sunny day.
07 05 06 York Region Godfather
Should be a quick pick-up for torys since the best part of former Markham riding jointed it. In recent by-election with a horrible PC candidate, torys won over 85% of old Markham village polls. Hear Dave Tsubouchi's former riding president is seeking the nomination, therefore expect old Tsubouchi Team to be involved if he wins, and say what you may they know this area well.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
The submission below seems to be talking more about this riding federally than provincially. It is true federally the Tories win in King and Whitchurch-Stouffville, but get clobbered in Markham and Richmond Hill ensuring they lose this. However, John Tory consistently polls 5-10% higher than Harper in the 905 belt so he will likely be competitive in Markham and Richmond Hill, while win King and Whitchurch-Stouffville by bigger margins than Harper. Suburban voters tend to be fiscally conservative but socially liberal which is why many go PC provincially but Liberal federally. I myself vote Liberal federally but PC provincially and know others who do so as well. Never mind under the re-distribution the PCs would have won by 9% last time around so with the Liberals unlikely to win by the margins they did in 2003, they won't pick this one up.
07 03 31
Federally this riding has backed the liberals with pretty acceptable majorities. On the other hand this riding does have very crucial conservative components such as King and the other small towns. But the Liberals will clobber the Cons, in the Richmond Hill and Markham parts of the riding. The majorities they are going to pile in this region shall carry the Liberal candidate to Queens Park. Call for the Liberals, atleast 40+%

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