Prediction Changed
7:05 PM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Ottawa-Orleans (96.6%)
Phil McNeely
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (3.4%)
Jean-Marc Lalonde

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Janet 98
I think Orleans will go Liberal for a number of reasons:
- lack of a strong NDP candidate
- two right wing splinter party candidates
- provincial momentum for the Liberal party
- Star candidate syndrome for Fox (it's exactly what happened to McTeer and Robinson)
07 10 08 Al K
Orleans voter makes a good point. This riding has all the characteristics of being a swing riding. It should stay with the Liberals because they appear to be heading towards a comfortable majority.
07 10 08 Old Willowdaler
It looks like McGunity will hold almost all his seats and is going to end up 62-64 depending on a few breaks with John Tory 30-33 and the NDP a guaranteed 12. I am less circumspect about this one than Barrie and Brampton West which I am still not 100% sure on(But did take a stab) I read the comments about the polling numbers and I think you will find the Ottawa numbers are DIFFERENT than ‘eastern ontario’ numbers which are the numbers for Kingston/Cornwall etc and not Ottawa. The civil servants are likely to push this into the grit column
07 10 07 Ottawa Voter
With the PC's now ahead of the Liberals in Eastern ontario polling Id say its safe to call this fox's win. Graham is the kind of candidate who could make up a 10-point provincial spread but with the tories up on the Liberals here now, this is all but a forgone conclusion. It will be close, I'd say fox by 1500, but its done!
07 10 07 Orleans Voter
This will probably be my final appraisal of this riding. McNeely clearly has the edge in lawn signs, particularly in Blackburn Hamlet, and to some extend in Chapel Hill and parts of Orleans. Fox is doing as well as McNeely in some parts of Orleans and Cumberland.
This riding now appears to be a bellwether - it goes provincially and federally in the direction of the winning government:
1999 - Brian Coburn won for the PC’s when Mike Harris won a 2nd term
2003 - Phil McNeely won for the Liberals when Dalton McGuinty beat Ernie Eves
2004 - Marc Godbout won for the Liberals when Paul Martin beat Stephen Harper
2006 - Royal Galipeau won for the Conservatives when Stephen Harper beat Paul Martin
Phil McNeeley was able to beat an incumbent MPP in 2003, and one who had been the Mayor of Cumberland and a much bigger name than Fox. The Ottawa Citizen has endorsed Fox, but based on the existing support for McNeely in the riding, and the fact that the Liberals are leading provincially, this riding will probably be won by McNeely on Wednesday.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
This will be a tighter race. Libs will drop below 50% likely closer to 43-45% but I dont think you will see a corresponding increase in the PC which will allow this to go PC. Do not forget more than a few of the residents are fed pub servants and the word on the street as Stephen Harper can tell you is they are NOT happy with where he is taking foreign policy which on the surface may not seem to translate provincially but those guys are thinking well beyond us mere mortals and can see things we cant so look for them to go into the Grit camp. Look to see the NDP tick up to higher single digits and don't be surprised if greens manage a solid 5 ot 6% here. Lots of Tories will stay home so look to them to end up say 38-40% on this round. In short grits by ....5% at the outside
07 10 06 jc-ottawa
McNeely won with a comfortable majority in '03 against an incumbent cabinet minister. This time the PC candidate is a newcomer and the overall trend in the province is definitely not in the PC's favor. The PCs tend to have more lawn signs in this area even when they lose. In my neighborhood, they have markedly less signs than in previous elections. I think this all points to a strong Liberal win with at least a 5000 majority.
07 09 29 Orleans Voter
Not a lot seems to have changed since my last post in this riding a couple weeks ago, but there are a couple of small signs of Liberal advantage.
There is still a close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberals do appear to have a slight edge in the lawn signs though. In addition, while the NDP usually makes a token attempt at running a campaign here, for the first time in the nearly 20 years I have lived here, they do not appear to be running a campaign at all. There are no NDP signs visible anywhere and we don't know who the candidate is. The lack of an NDP campaign could help the Liberals, and since the new poll today shows the Liberals have increased their lead over the Conservatives provincially, including in Eastern Ontario, this riding appears as if it will stay Liberal.
07 09 19 A.S.
Odd; a decade ago, this appeared to be the kind of unassailably Liberal seat where the Tories'd be wasting their time--now it's the kind of place where Tories feel confident enough to offer viable star candidates like Walter Robinson federally in '04 or Graham Fox now. The sleek Fox vs the un-sleek McNeely; there's almost a Harry Truman '48 charm about vouching for the latter. And remember: the sleek Walter Robinson lost in '04. However, his un-sleek successor Royal Galipeau *did* win on '06. You never know...
07 09 17 Orleans Voter
At this point I would give a slight edge to the Liberals, but this riding will be close as it has been in the past few elections. At the moment there are a lot of Liberal and Conservative signs in the riding, but as usual the NDP appears to have no presence or anything much going on. Phil McNeely seems basically liked and has more name recognition at the moment but Graham Fox has sent his literature around and is certainly trying to make himself known.
07 09 13 wannabegreen
navan lad has hit the nail on the head, orleans turned blue federally because of the adscam backlash, and even then it was still reasonably close.
the 417/174 improvement announcement and also Phil's work to keep the bridge crossing away from petrie island should be enough to keep him at queens park, also most cumberland voters will have fond memories of the work he did as their city councillor. to be honest the only hope the tories and fox have is if there is a big voter backlash because of McGuinty's promise/reversal on the health care tax levy, but i think most Orleans folk will stil vote liberal
07 08 19 Rebel
I actually disagree a lot with most of the commentators but do agree that Graham fox is the most likely PC candidate to win an Ottawa-prefixed riding - an excellent choice for the PCs. The core of the riding is the former village of Orleans and its original neighbourhood remain strongly Francophone (50-60%)...some of the south-eastern and newest suburbs are also francophone tinged, but much of the growth in the riding's suburbs has filled it with a lot of well-educated and affluent anglophones and a surprisingly large number of military. These have made the riding highly marginal as Brian Coburn's victory in 1999 demonstrates. He ran not badly in francophone neighbourhoods, but incredibly well in most of the anglophone ones plus Cumberland. His defeat in 2003 seems driven by large losses in the ridings SE, driven perhaps by his unwillingness to block the proposed but unlamented pig farm in Sarsfield.
Phil McNeeley needs to be remembered for the single dumbest statement in this Parliament. I quote from the Ottawa Citizen of July 20/06:
?Ottawa-Orleans MPP Phil McNeely yesterday called Israel a ?rogue state,? and said the federal government should apologize to Canadians for its support of the Jewish state's ?collective punishment? of the people in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Liberal MPP's comments drew immediate rebuke from Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, who expressed ?serious dismay and disappointment? to his colleague, and distanced his government from them.?
Let's face it, when the Premier apologizes and is dismayed by one of his members, McNeeley screwed up big time and has done nothing before or since that I have noticed...
Therefore, I suggest the riding will go PC by 1,500-2,000 votes...
07 08 13 navanlad
To say that the francophone vote abandoned Godbout federally to go to Galipeau is wrong. People simply didn't vote Liberal because it was time for change and the whole Sponsorship mess. Lets not try to compare apples and oranges.
The only francophones who know Fox are what we call the ?upper crust?. Monsieur and Madame tout le monde don't know who he is. Phil was a popular City of Ottawa councillor before being elected and pretty present. People neglect the fact that he is bilingual.
Fox should sit out a few years. He comes off too much as a brainy, university lad. Being French doesn't necessarily mean you will get the French vote.
The 417/174 split funding announcement should help McNeely, as will the millions invested in French education and the Montfort Hospital.
07 06 29 free_thinker
?Despite having an English-speaking majority, Ottawa?Orl?ans is among the most francophone of the Ontario ridings, and a major centre of the Franco-Ontarian community. According to the 2001 Statistics Canada report, 35% of the riding population speaks French as their mother tongue.?
But really, that 35% population doesn?t matter ? they can?t affect the outcome of an election that was decided by a mere 9%.....just like the 37% population of Asians in Markham doesn?t matter the 28% Ukrainian population in Etobicoke--Lakeshore doesn't matter either. Right? According to your logic anyway...
I'm beginning to think that you know little about what you?re talking about and I, unlike you, blame only you for your naivety. The fact is that Walter Robinson lost federally because he failed to solidify support from the francophonie, Brian Coburn won in 1999 because he did the opposite and lost in 2003 because he did the same. In 2006, the francophonie deserted Marc Godbout because he didn?t speak for them and instead elected Royal Galipeau. And now, here we are in the present debate arguing the significance of the Francophone population. And, either your retarded or you can't read because I have just laid out a key fact - that the francophonie in this riding matter.
And another fact: on October 10, 2007 they will side with Fox and he will win.
07 06 20 Petrie Island Prowler
Sorry bud, you are wrong. I don't blame you, it is a widely held misconception about Orleans. Look at the demographic information available for this riding. Roughly 20% francophone. Not a factor.
07 06 11 free_thinker
The previous author is quite misinformed on this riding. It has one of the largest francophone populations inside Ontario. And, as a matter of fact, a disconnect in the 2003 election with the francophone population is largely credited with the defeat of the PC's here. The francophone groups in this riding overwhelmingly supported Brian Coburn contributing to his election. This collapse in support resulted in the PC defeat here. Now, with Fox who has deep roots in Anglophone and Francophone communities, the PC's have this riding all but locked up. He?s young, vibrant and a real contrast to Phil McNeely. This riding is PC.
07 05 23 Petrie Island Pirate
While I agree that Graham Fox has a strong chance to upset and win this seat, it has to be considered the Liberals to lose at this point. We'll see if things change, and they might, as this is no longer a safe Liberal seat. But, the comments re the french language are not an issue. To those whom French is an issue, they will always vote Liberal. And there are not many of them left. This is not the Orleans of 1990. It is an English riding now.
07 05 10 free_thinker
Graham Fox (PC) will be sending Phil McNeely (LIB) packing. Phil has not be a very good MPP and Graham is very well known in the community. He has as solid foundation of support in both language communities something that has haunted the Tories in this riding (and the province) for years. Also, Fox will surely be in a John Tory cabinet should they win. This seat, Torie by 5000 votes.

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