Prediction Changed
4:39 PM 02/06/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Ottawa-Vanier (100%)
Hon Madeleine Meilleur

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 12 plank
How did I do?
LIB 20951 - I guessed 20900 - (-51) - (-0.2%)
PC 9169 - I guessed 11700 - (+2531) - (+21.6%)
NDP 6144 - I guessed 6100 - (-44) - (-0.7%)
GRN 4287 - I guessed 2300 - (-1987) - (-86.4%)
I just used my guess as the denominator - not sure how they usually do it. Not too bad considering it's hard to get a good percentage on the Green vote since the numbers are usually smaller, but I did overestimate the PC vote by a fair bit.
But I can't toot my horn: this is the kind of riding where, if your guess for the next election is whatever the result was for the last one, you won't be far off.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Vanier is perhaps the strongest natural Ottawa riding for the Liberals. With the Party Leader running in Ottawa South, he might get a larger portion of vote, but without him, this would be the top riding in the area. One only needs to check the last name of the candidates from the top three parties to figure out this is a franco riding. French voters, and especially catholic ones, have traditionally voted Liberal. The franco-liberal tradition will not end this election. Liberal win.
07 09 07 plank
The type of demographic change required for this riding to change parties in less than four years is the type of radical change seen during periods of warfare, mass migration, disease, starvation, natural disaster, etc. I could spot that type of stuff just by peering out my window. I live in the riding and I can attest that I haven't seen any of this. Therefore I can conclude that the riding will remain Liberal this election.
Perhaps if I lived in a different riding, I could give my nascent skills in political punditry more of a challenge. My prediction:
LIB 20900
PC 11700
NDP 6100
GRN 2300
I have a much harder time guessing the referendum question outcome. Maybe I'll post on that later.
07 08 31 A.S.
Federally, the once-guaranteed Liberal vote in O-V has been sagging to dangerously low levels (skirting 40% last time); but provincially, we can expect something closer to the status quo or even improving on it, given how Madeleine Meilleur's turned out to be something of a surprise cabinet/caucus success (surprising, at least, considering the chequered political careers of her predecessors Claudette Boyer and Bernard Grandmaitre). Maybe not quite to the 2/3 mandates Grits tended to earn here in the 70s and 80s; but hey, chalk it up to political maturity...
07 08 20 Rebel
The riding is actually becoming less and less francophone with each census, but the riding should remain strongly Liberal this time. Neighbourhoods like Lowertown and Sandy Hill are no longer francophone with lots of new condos being constructed or gentrification continuing...the NDP is strong in Sandy Hill (and the Greens also) and the PCs should run well in Beacon Hill North, Manor Park and Rockcliffe. I think the PCs should ahve a good chance of getting 30% of the vote but I agree that the Liberals will easily get 45% or more with good results from the rest of the riding...
07 08 02 JBL
Madeleine Meilleur is extremely popular in this overwhelmingly Liberal riding. As Francophone Affairs Minister she has worked hard to rebuild French language services after the Tories forgot (for eight years) that such a Ministry even existed. One of the safest Liberal seats in the Province, Meilleur will coast to a huge victory in this one.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster