Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 22/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ottawa West—Nepean
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Ottawa West-Nepean (99.2%)
Hon Jim Watson
Lanark-Carleton (0.6%)
Norman W. Sterling
Nepean-Carleton (0.2%)
Lisa MacLeod

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 29 Orleans Voter
This has been considered a close race between the Conservatives and the Liberals according to local media coverage. Today The Ottawa Citizen reports that Liberal Jim Watson has a small lead and may hold off the Conservatives afterall.
07 09 24 RyanOntario
Have been watching this riding and there has been alot said about it and pc candidate Mike Patton. still get the feeling this is one of the closer ridings in the city of ottawa. Tory also visited this riding during the campaign when he was in ottawa.
Find Jim Watson is tough competition and ontario liberals seem to be stronger here than the federal liberals who just last election lost this same seat to the conservatives.
will be interesting to see what happens on election day.
07 09 18 A.S.
It's a real paradox that while Dalton's been party leader, Liberal fortunes in the Ottawa region have taken a turn for the sluggish--perhaps more influenced by federal and Quebec matters? Sure, Jim Watson won fair and square against Gary Guzzo; but for a candidate of his calibre vs a lesser PC incumbent in '03, 6 points is a pretty tepid margin--it might have been twice that or more anywhere else of similar demographic. (Ditto with John Baird federally; anywhere else in Ontario, a seat like this wouldn't be *that* CPC-amenable.) Still, Watson's got no incumbent opponent now, and has earned his cabinet keep to the degree that constituents now probably *wish* they gave him twice the margin in the first place...
07 09 11 Cornflower
Too early to tell, but Fisher Park is rife with Jim Watson signs. Many, lots. Whatever Patton does, Jim Watson has a lot of support.
BTW, Lynn Hamilton is the NDP candidate. She has been active for awhile in union circles, but I haven't seen a bio yet.
07 09 09 G_Seires
Ottawa West-Nepean is typically swing or lean-Tory, but this race will come down to local candidates.
Where is Mike Patton? Does anyone even know who the New Democrat candidate is?
Jim Watson, on the other hand, has been to my door already. His signs are up throughout my neighbourhood. I've got his flyer.
Mike Patton's nowhere in sight, and there's no sign that he has any organization to speak of. Right now, he's getting blown out of the water.
Watson's a very likeable guy and has strong name recognition (how many other politicians canvass when there's not an election?), Patton's a relative unknown who hasn't impressed yet. There's 30 days to go and no sign of John Baird's machine gearing up for Patton.
Barring a central campaign catastrophe on the Liberal side, I think Watson holds his seat. He has strong organization, a strong campaign, and an invisible opponent.
07 09 04 Funky Western Chicken
I am amused by the attempts at propaganda on here. Having unseated Gary (who?) Guzzo, Hon. Jim Watson, now a Minister, and still ubiquitous in the media and the riding, will DESTROY whoever the Tories put up. I have lost track of whether it is Mike Patton, employee or ex-employee of Mayor Larry ?what, Me Worry?? O'Brien.
Sure, Watson's victory was perhaps more narrow in 2003. That could be. It is hard to come in late, win a partisan nomination outside your core (downtown / Glebe / Carleton) home turf, and then turn a conservative-leaning blue riding into a red one. But Jim Watson did that with style. Now he is a good Minister and fine champion for Ottawa down at Queen's Park, and, indeed, an extremely reliable right-hand man and mouthpiece for the McGuinty government when the Premier is around the province or down in Toronto.
John Baird just piggybacked his way over from Nepean-Carleton provincially to Ottawa West -- Nepean federally at a time when he was no longer a Minister provincially and when federal Liberal fortunes were already spiralling downward and away. It is irrelevant now to the provincial picture in Ottawa West -- Nepean.
There is of course one x-factor: an extremely unlikely meltdown of the central Ontario Liberal campaign could affect Watson somewhat, as it would affect any Liberal candiate. He'd still pull through on great reputation and hard work.
I suppose a second x-factor is an equally unlikely campaign surge by John Tory, suddenly swinging ?on-the-fence? right-leaning voters to toss out a good Minister with right-moderate views, in favour of an unknown Tory candidate or Mike Patton? No way. That would have to be a MASSIVE wave for John Tory and this just is not going to happen.
Change the silly ?too close to call? icon (which is so 2003) and mark this one Liberal red for Hon. Jim Watson.
07 08 19 Rebel
Jim Watson has an amazing capacity to garner publicity...and personally is a likeable guy. The PCs will need to attract a pretty impressive candidate here if they hope to take the riding. It is marginal but I might give the Liberals an extra edge of a percentage or two given it is Ottawa and McGuinty's backyard. I disagree that Mike Patton would be a weak candidate and also that the current mayor is scandal tainted. If Patton runs, the margin one way or the other should be within 3,000 votes...
07 08 13 navanlad
Seriously, Watson is one of the best politicians. He kills in QP; he can't be beat at the door; and he has more community presence than any other politician in Ottawa. The man is everywhere. Plus, he is known for his tory past and people will remember his impressive record both municipally and provincially.
Unless there is a huge Liberal collapse province-wide, this one will be done soon after polls close.
07 08 08 BFT
Watson goes an inordinate amount of community events. He's the Premier's voice for English-Ottawa when his duties take him to other parts of the province.
With no credible candidate from the NDP or PC willing to stand against the rookie Minister it will be hard for Watson not to expand on his winning margin in 2003.
07 08 01 Rob C
The election is only 10 weeks away and the Tories still haven't officially picked a candidate. If the PCs pick Mike Patton this won't be close. Patton's association with Ottawa's scandal tainted Mayor equals a Liberal victory.
Watson will be re-elected.
07 05 10 free_thinker
This will be the closest races in Eastern Ontario, if not Ontario as a whole. A very popular Liberal incumbent in a traditional tory riding makes for an entertaining race. Should be close right to the finish. I give the hand up to Watson but its still way to close to call.
07 05 06 Angry Ontarian
TCTC. On the federal landscape, West Ottawa has shifted rightwards over the years. This is John Baird's seat. Jim Watson may be high-profile but won by only 6% last time. We'll leave this riding until closer to Election Day.

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