Prediction Changed
8:20 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Parry Sound—Muskoka
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Parry Sound-Muskoka (100%)
Norm Miller

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 N~Jam101
I think Miller will win again and may be a candidate for his party's next leadership convention.
07 10 04 B.Barker
Okay I think that mojoroads is definitely smoking an illegal substance. Did he ever think to look at the past election results? 10%?? How can you gain 40% in the next election when your party trails significantly behind the Liberals and PCs....
This is also one of the historically most conservative seats in the province, for the ndp to win would be the biggest political upset this country has ever seen (besides the federal by election in outremont hehe)...
07 10 03 RKV
Wow, I didn't know the NDP candidate was, ancient! Let's not forget though that this was once the riding of one Ernie Eves...the same Eves who won election in a 1981 by-election, survived the 85 defeat, the 87 collapse, the 90 bizarreness and the 03 destruction wrought by it's former representative...
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
I don’t know why people think the NDP will win here. What, a strong candidate? In 1997 the federal PC party ran an immensely strong candidate in this riding, and still lost. Sometimes a strong candidate is not enough. This riding trends historically towards the provincial PC Party. If the Tories could take it in 2003, they can take it this time around.
07 09 28 Mojoroads
Re: landslide. Not necessarily. And here’s why.
- Half the Liberal riding association quit after McGuinty took much of the riding out of ‘The North’.. taking away needed funding for various programs….Thus the Liberal Candidate has a low profile, and has been almost non existent as far as signs, canvassing etc. leaving only the NDP as credible opposition Mr.Miller.
- NDP candidate Sara Hall has deep roots in the community going back well over a hundred years, her family having a prominent name (the Pagets) that is well recognized. This matters a great deal to many voters here.
- The famlies that actually live in the riding - not the seasonal cottagers - actually make on average $18,000 less than the average Ontarian. Many hold two or three jobs just to get by.
07 09 21 A.S.
In the Grossman disaster of '87, Parry Sound's Ernie Eves held his absolute majority with the best PC result in Ontario. Who knows, if we see another scenario of a moderate Toronto PC leader pulled awkwardly rightward, Norm Miller (Premier Frank's son, yadig?) might make history repeat itself...
07 09 15 JF
I have been a liberal supporter most of my life. However, it is most difficult to support a liberal candidate for your riding when you have to search the internet to find out who she is!
Is there a campaign office in Parry Sound? If so, where is it? Where are the ads in the paper? I looked through both the ‘North Star’ and ‘Beacon Star’ and couldn't find any.

Where are the lawn signs? I drove all around Parry Sound and up the 124 highway and didn't see any? How are people going to know who the liberal candidate is if she doesn't get her name out there?
We all know who Norm Miller is over here in the Parry sound part of the riding. Norm Miller has a campaign office in Parry Sound and lawn signs and every other kind of sign. There have also been personal appearances at various functions by Norm Miller.
Perhaps, Brenda Rhodes should hit the road running!!
07 09 11 nesooite
Only safe Tory bet in NOnt. Norm Miller is just too strong and if Andy Mitchell could not hold for Liberals last time Federally against carpet bagger Tony Clement than there is no hope for Liberals here.
07 08 31 taurean
I canvassed a number of polls in Huntsville for an opposing candidate during their last by-election (before the last general election); and as much as I dislike the outcome, there is only one way this riding is going on election night.
With a former premier's son running again as an incumbent, in ?Landslide Ernie's? old riding, most locals have seen little else in their lifetime than provincial Tories. Furthermore the Leslie M. Frost Natural Resources Centre (closed by the Liberals, now independently leased) is within a stones throw of the edge of the riding.
There are pockets of Tory opposition though: a large number of retirees with heath care/homecare issues, general discontent with the lack economic development (i.e. job creation), the expansion of highway 11, the (non-)recognition of northern-residency status issue, etc. This will not be a cakewalk for Mr. Miller Jr. Prediction: Tory hold with a reduced plurality.
07 08 22 Japhtastic
If I'm Norm Miller (which I'm not, seriously. . .if I was why would I post my own win on this site. C'mon. That's silly!) this is all I would do at an all-candidates debate:
Moderator: Mr. Miller, you have five minutes for an opening address.
Mr. Miller: Thank you, Mr. Moderator. Hey, everyone here tonight. Remember when we were part of the North? Well, thanks to your current government, we're not anymore. Sucks, eh?
Moderator: Is that all?
Mr. Miller: Yup. I'm going to go take the rest of the campaign off now.
Seriously, if the Miller campaign wants to use that, they can.
And then coast to victory. Even though Norm hasn't really done much in some time now. . .
07 08 09 RyanOntario
Just this week the liberals announced their candidate for this riding , will be running a young woman Brenda Rhodes. she has never ran in this riding before municipally , provincially or federally. she did go to high school here but is not known well in the riding.
The ndp and greens are also running rookie candidates as well who aren't particularly well known.
whats interesting is it feels like a race to elect the mpp of bracebridge/gravenhurst or south muskoka as some might call that area. as all the candidates live in that part of riding.
it will be interesting how the Parry Sound part of the riding reacts to this and the lack of representation/candidates from that area.
overall its looking like the pc's have the advantage here and having an incumbent mpp will help.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Norm Miller to hold.
Long-time PC territory that should remain as such. Unlike in Eastern Ontario, this is electable for Red Tories, and unlike in the 905 area, this is electable for stronger conservatives. Miller is quite popular here so I can't see it going any other way.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
If the PCs could win this in a 2001 by-election when Harris had his lowest approval ratings, I don't see why they couldn't now. Tony Clement only scraped by last federal election because Andy Mitchell was very popular amongst his constituents. This is naturally a conservative riding and without a Liberal incumbent will go conservative.
07 05 02 Ryan N
Safe, traditional PC territory. This is the northern-most riding that they'll capture.

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