Prediction Changed
8:20 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Confederation of Regions
Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke (100%)
John Yakabuski

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Joe
Nothing is a sure thing but it looks as if Yakabuski will hold this one. If he was able to beat the Liberals in 2003, he should hold it again. This one will be a closer race to watch however. Sean Kelly will give him one heck of a run for his seat.
07 09 25 Initials
I think Yakabuski has the definite upper hand and will win this riding without any problem. He has not made any glaring errors and has been a solid constituency man - something which plays well in RNP. His criminal problems that could have hurt him last election, are overshadowed by his solid performance over the past term.
Sean Kelly is definitely a long-shot. His biggest problem is the NDP. The Conservative supporters are not going to move to the Liberal camp, at least not here. In the last election, Liberal Nighbor lost by less than 500 votes, and the NDP picked up 10 times that number. Yet Nighbor was by far the superior intellect, regardless of his political stripe.
If Kelly could pull a fair number of NDP supporters into his camp, he would have a chance. Attacking Yak is a losing strategy from the start. He should be concentrating on taking out the NDP's Felicite Stairs, not Yak.
Kelly's almost complete lack of signs and constituency offices in the key population centres does not bode well for him. He is the one who needs the exposure the most.
Incidentally, Conservative electors have also not caught on that the Green Party is primarily a right of centre party, simply because they equate ?green? with ?left?. If they ever catch on, then the Greens could begin to pull support from the PCs in this riding, making the races a lot more interesting.
That all said, after 25 years of closely watching the political scene in RNP, my money is on Yak in this race.
07 09 22 A.S.
For the seat to have tilted in the other direction in 2003, one may wonder if that's a platform for Yakabuski to duplicate Cheryl Gallant's federal achievement and give RNP the best, yes, the best PC result in Ontario. Far-fetched? Well, it took a pair of elections for Ernie Eves to advance the ‘Landslide Ernie’ label from ironic euphemism to a similar best-result superlative...
07 09 21 Pure Whig
The riding will undoubtedly stay Tory Blue. Renfrew County has really developed, or preserved a tradition of voting for local candidates rather than party labels. Yakabuski is the sentimental favorite, and has worked the riding extremely well.
One correction though from a previous poast, Paul Martin Senior did live in this riding, and contest it, but was never elected in Renfrew County.
07 09 20 Mark
Just a correction...Paul Martin Sr. was born in Pembroke and his sisters lived in the community for many, many years. Mr. Martin, Sr. represented the riding of Essex East (which is in the Windsor area), from 1935 to 1968, not Renfrew County. BTW, John Yakabuski should win here. The Valley typically votes for the candidate, Liberal or PC, not the party. Witness the last election, when Yakabuski squeaked by the Liberal Derek Nighbor. Name recognition counted. Yakabuski's father represented Renfrew South for many years.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
This is the riding that voted Alliance in 2000, but it’s also the riding that Paul Martin’s father held for a very long period. Years ago it was a strong Liberal riding, but these days it’s seen are more Conservative. Why? Social issues. This riding might be economically to the middle, but socially it’s very right wing. I therefore agree with those who say that John Tory is not going to win any votes here. I disagree, however, that he will cause a loss in this riding. If the riding went PC under Ernie Eves, it can stay PC under John Tory. This riding is an excellent example of why you cant compare Federal and Provincial results without some forethought.
07 09 12 binriso
Well this is one of the 2 ridings that federally elected the Alliance in 2000, despite going Liberal since its creation in 1979. Sean Conway is long gone for the Liberals and even though he held it for 28 years provincially it was in a large part because of his personal popularity(which from what i hear was pretty big) that held it. Still though, the PC's will hold on to it again by an increased margin since they are the incumbents and the Liberal candidate, although decent does not have the star power to make it a really close race. Although it will still be relatively close compared to other ridings in the area.
07 08 19 Rebel
Hmmm...we have a riding that is the strongest Conservative riding in Ontario federally and one which went from Liberal to PC in 2003. John Yakabuski will win by a VERY large margin.
07 08 10 RyanOntario
disagree with the comments posted here so far, sure this is maybe not really a pc riding but John Yakabuski the pc mpp has had 4 years to get to know the riding and the average voters . in a rural small town riding this will prove to be a huge advantage.
the liberal candidate Sean Kelly has never ran before and is fairly unknown in the riding. i also doubt he will get much help or resources from the liberal party.
also several policies will hurt the liberals here including there decision to study/ reduce logging in algonquin park since many loggers and saw mill workers live in this riding . and they get most of there wood off crown land near or in algonquin park .
the liberals recent gun control push will not help them here either , this lead to the defeat of a liberal mp here a few elections ago . .
07 06 11 Northerner
I agree with Rural Analyst. How is a riding that has moved to the right because of social issues going to respond to a Bay Street Red Tory leader who had pulled the Ontario PC's to the left? Unless a credible so-con runs for the PC's - and with Tory this is unlikely to happen - I think this riding will likely go to the Liberals. I expect the Family Coalition and Freedom parties to do reasonably well if they run candidates.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Too close to call.
Political apathy will be a big story here. None of the leaders are popular here as this riding has become arguably the most conservative in Ontario, and well to the right of John Tory's PC's as well, particularly on social issues. A low turnout could tip this back to the Liberals (despite also being highly unpopular here), as could a candidate to the right that can tap into the frustration (whether an independent or a smaller party). Too many questions to be answered!
07 05 02 Angry Ontarian
Any riding that went from Liberal to PC in 2003 has to be considered a Conservative safety zone.

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