Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

St. Paul's
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

St. Paul's (91.2%)
Hon Michael Bryant
Eglinton-Lawrence (8.8%)
Hon Mike Colle

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO of the Michael Bryant Campaign.

07 10 07 King of Kensington
There is nothing courageous about calling this one for the Liberals. Michael Bryant has emerged as a very high-profile MPP (and potential future leader) and affluent St. Pauls is just too urbane and has too many small-ílí liberal professional and intelligentsia types to vote for the Conservatives anymore. The Conservative candidate lacks the high profile of Peter Kent and shouldn't do as well. The NDP is running a credible candidate in Julian Heller has good signage in Mihevc's ward but the NDP just isn't enough of a factor in the riding as a whole; the best they can hope for is beating the Tories for second place.
07 10 05 Observer
I got a Christmas card from Michael Bryant, which I wasn't expecting as I live in Eastern Ontario. Clearly this guy is ambitious. This is an interesting riding as it can be considered an elite district and often attracts star candidates. As Bryant is the brightest star on this XMAS tree, I'm calling St Paul's for the Liberals.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
Even with two very strong opponents, the federal Liberals held this riding in 2006. Ridings like this, that are urban and do not contain a community, tend to vote for parties more then candidates. With a formula like that you will be looking at a Liberal win here on e-day.
07 09 30 Rebel
Touche...I do understand that the extension east took place prior to the 1999 provincial election. I did want to clarify that the movement west was not the only substantive change in redistribution.
I also understand that these largely apartment polls are generally Liberal...certainly in 1987 and 1990, but nowhere the wasteland that are the polls for the Tories from Bathurst to Dufferin.
In any event, the Liberals have opened up a 10% margin in Ontario according to Ipsos-Reid. Even counting only those most likely to vote (the Liberal lead then shrinks to 7%) Bryant will certainly be re-elected. by a healthy margin.
07 09 23 A.S.
Er, Rebel, St. Paul's didn't move east in the latest redistribution. And if, as in your Etobicoke-Lakeshore comments, you're referring to a series of boundary changes over time, it's misleading not only because federal and provincial boundaries have only corresponded since 1999 (i.e. nothing beforehand provincially is exactly comparable to the present St. Paul's), but because the Eglinton apartment corridor (as well as that further south along Davisville) *has*, indeed, had a long history of being a Liberal stronghold within otherwise Tory-leaning ridings. Indeed, it's those apartments that helped elect Liberal Diane Poole in Roy McMurtry's old turf in 1987 and 1990...
07 09 23 Rebel
I predict that Bryant will be re-elected but did want to make some observations on the riding. It is true that it has moved to the west (a decided Liberal advantage that will likely prove decisive) but it has also moved east as well, taking in the mass of apartment buildings in the Eglinton Avenue area east of Yonge Street. This is not especially PC-friendly but is not also a Liberal stronghold. If the PCs take Forest Hill, that at least is beginning to restore some of the PC strength in the riding and perhaps another redistribution might change the odds against the PCs in this riding a little less heavy.
07 09 18 Former Sudburian
Well, a week into the campaign and the Conservatives have come on very strong in Forest Hill (at least lawn sign wise). But I have yet to see a Tory sign west of Vaughn road (though I'm sure I could find one in I looked hard enough. Despite the 5 to 1 advantage the Tories seem to have in Forest Hill, the red tide in the western portion of this riding seems difficult to overcome. The NDP looks to be a virtual non-entity here. I've seen a grand total of five signs for Heller on my walks and two of those are in business windows (one of which also has a Bryant sign). It'll be interesting to watch this riding on election night. I can see the polls being all over the place depending on where results are coming from. Liberals to hold.
07 09 12 mb
Barbara McDougal's St Paul's is long dead. Stretching this riding further west in 87 and then further west in 2003 to Dufferin in places in addition to shrinking the northern reaches has made this riding really uncompetitive.
The western half of the riding is already awash with Liberal Signs and the campaign has just started. Should be an easy win for a high level cabinet minister like Bryant who has represented the riding since 1999.
07 09 11 Former Sudburian
I went for walk in the western part of this riding. Signs went up starting yesterday. So far there are a lot of Bryant signs in the Wychwood/Christie area, none that I saw for any other candidate. In Forest Hill I saw few signs. Two for Goldstein and I think 2 or 3 for Bryant. I don't think the NDP has started putting up signs yet (or if they have I didn't see any). I think the Liberals have this one pretty much wrapped up unless something dramatic happens during the next month.
07 09 10 Josh Matlow
Sean wrote, ?Unlike Bryant, she is lives in St.Paul's and is from the community?, refering to the PC candidate.
That is catagorically not true. Michael Bryant lives in the riding near Avenue Road and St. Clair.
07 09 10 MH
This seat is about as safely Liberal, provincially and federally, as any seat in Ontario these days. A major political earthquake will be necessary to shake out Mr. Bryant. (I write this with mild regret.) No doubt there are optimistic PCs who will predict a PC win in St. Paul's, just as there were dewey-eyed Tories who predicted a Conservative win here in the last federal election. Came election day, and Mr. Kent was buried. The same is likely happen to Ms. Goldstein.
07 08 18 A.S.
Another crimp on the ?Jewish Tory vote? issue is that St. Paul's lost some heavily Orthodox polls N of Eglinton and gained an anything-but-Tory slab in the Dufferin/Oakwood range. As it now stands, Bryant--a potential leadership successor, among other things--is virtually unsinkable, unless John Tory's neighbouring return-of-the-Red-Tory coattails are working in ultra-overdrive...
07 08 16 King of Kensington
In response to Sean
First of all, if John Tory was so popular all over the riding of St. Paul's, David Miller would not have won it by a wide margin in 2003. While both Don Valley West and St. Paul's are both very affluent riding, DVW is much more small-?c? conservative politically and is more ?nouveau-riche? suburban. In contrast St. Paul's has more of a small-?l? liberal urban intelligentsia element and is the Canadian version of those wealthy Congressional districts in the US that always elect liberal Democrats. In fact, I'd say this riding would actually be a better fit for Kathleen Wynne than DVW is.
Second, the religious schools will have the same impact it had last time around - practically zero. The Jewish community in St. Paul's is overwhelmingly secular and has almost no orthodox vote that would cast their vote based on religious schools, like in Eglinton-Lawrence. The very very very small number of Jews in St. Paul's who are orthodox and/or who identify as ?neocons? would already have cast their votes for the Tories in 2003.
07 08 12 Sean
The Progressive Conservatives have a great candidate in St. Paul's - Lillyann Goldstein. Unlike Brynat, she is lives in St.Paul's and is from the community. Tory and Miller were tied in the east-end poll for 2003 Mayoral race. With Tory as a candidate next door in DVW, Liberals do not have a lock on mid-town Toronto. Goldstein is the progressive type of candidate that St.Paul's used to elect (Barbara MacDougall, Isebelle Bassett). Bryant is high profile but is not loved locally. Religous school issue will play a role in this riding. With John Tory highly respected in all parts of St.Paul's, this is not a safe Liberal win - this riding will be ?too close? in 6 weeks.
07 08 11 seamus
If Michael Bryant did not already have this one wrapped up - he was assured a win when the Tories selected Rob Davis as their campaign manager. The former Councillor most recently managed John Adams' municipal campaign into the ground with baseless attacks on local progressive Councillor, Joe Mihevc. Tory candidate Goldstein better hope Davis picks up his socks or else she'll be fighting the NDP's Julian Heller for 2nd. Michael Bryant - you get a free pass.
07 06 02 King of Kensington
Kind of like the Upper East Side of Manhattan and West L.A., St. Paul's is an affluent urban riding that has been solidly small-?l? liberal in its values and now completely rejects small-?c? conservative parties. David Miller outpolled John Tory here by a wide margin. Michael Bryant is a high-profile Cabinet minister who fits this riding very well.
During the last municipal election, there was talk that John Adams was preparing for a run provincially. Adams, who had Rob Davis working on his campaign, embarrassed himself by attacking popular councillor Joe Mihevc for being anti-Israel because of his CUPE endorsement. This did not endear Adams to the Jewish community in Ward 21. Not that this should make too much of a difference - the Jewish population here is mostly Reform Jewish and is more progressive than it is further north and will not at all care about the religious schools issue.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Michael Bryant has been a high-profile cabinet minster and add to the fact this has been becoming increasingly a safe Liberal riding, so the Liberals shouldn't have any trouble hold this one.

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