Prediction Changed
1:03 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Scarborough-Agincourt (87.2%)
Hon Gerry Phillips
Scarborough-Rouge River (12.8%)
Bas Balkissoon

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 27 Nick J Boragina
Agincourt is the part of Scarborough with the highest number of Minorities, and Scarborough is the part of Ontario with the highest number of Minorities. Reports are that this riding already has passed the park, and ‘Minorities’ are now the Majority here. If true, then this is great news for the Liberals, who tend to get more votes from these groups. While this riding is solid Liberal now, that could change over a generation as these ‘New’ Canadians have children and those children start to vote as traditional Canadians do. Liberal Lock this time, however.
07 09 22 MH
Under Mike Harris the Tories failed to take this. The result under John Tory will be more of the same. I don't know what it will take to move Scarborough-Agincourt out of the Liberal camp, and I don't think the PC party does, either. An easy red hold.
07 08 28 A.S.
Re ?higher profile? candidates: Jim Brown parachuted himself here in 1999 because Dan Newman manoeuvred him out of Scarborough SW--and in fact, by coming within 10 points of Phillips, Brown overachieved. And Bob Frankford--electorally speaking, no more than a Rae-landslide fluke, really--was himself parachuted here in '99 after failed nomination bids elsewhere, only to have Brown-Phillips piledrive him to a pathetic under-4%. Pretty motley for high profile; even Sonny Boy Del Grande has greater claim to the grassroots, and he's certainly more credible than the CCRAP cannon fodder Jimmy K's been fed federally. But in a seat like this, not currently credible enough to win--at least, not unless Gerry P. retires and 1999's weird Steeles-belt PC chemistry (anti-Asian crime related?) rekindles itself.
07 08 28 taurean
Gerry Phillips will represent Scarborough-Agincourt after the next election. In the past, he and his team have defeated much higher-profile candidates than his current PC competitor: Former Minister Jim Brown (PC) and Former Parliamentary Secretary Bob Frankford (NDP). The current PC candidate is the Catholic School Board Trustee, son of the current local Toronto Councilor and owes much, if not all of his political success, name recognition, and acumen to his father.
Toronto voters facing serious local financial restraints ? to the point where council has been considering shutting down subways, reducing library and childcare capacity - will have to keep a close eye on John D?s campaign to ensure that our very scarce City of Toronto resources are not diverted from his father to assist in a provincial campaign. Regardless of these potential outside factors there are good reasons that Gerry Phillips will keep his seat.
Furthermore, during the 1995 PC sweep Phillips kept his seat despite the unpopularity of the former Peterson government and complete disdain for the out-going NDP government). Under the most extreme circumstances Gerry, a now well-seasoned MP, and parliamentarian kept his seat.
Although I am not entirely pleased with the way the current Government of Ontario has proceeded on a number of fronts; overall my current MPP, Gerry Phillips has done a good job in representing the riding. He is present at local events, he performs as a Minister and MPP in the legislature, and is available for in-person meetings on a regular basis.
My neighbours who espouse values closer to those of the Harris/Harper mandates have said they will vote for Gerry because he gets things done, has been an omni-present, consistent and proficient MP. The government of the day isn't perfect, but Gerry is our guy. Even if his government has had flaws he will carry the riding with a margin in the thousands, but not tens of thousands of votes.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
If Mike Harris couldn't win this in 1999 or 1995 when the Tories were much stronger in Scarborough than today, they won't take this. Scarborough is one of the strongest Liberal bastions in the province.
07 04 26 Andrew Cox
Liberal Hold.
1) Gerry Phillips will be running for the Liberals again. The long-time Liberal MPP enjoys solid connections with the ridings large Chinese and Tamil populations. His ties to the business community ensure he is able to run a well-funded campaign with considerable pre-writ and in-writ communications. His status as a senior minister in the government gives his constituents few reasons to throw him out, and lots of reasons to keep him. Plus just about everyone from every party admits Gerry's a really nice guy.
2) With 61% of the vote in the last election, this is a Liberal bastion. Neither opposition party would be expected to devote much time, resources or high-profile candidates to the contest.
3) There are few local issues that would provide a burning platform for change. There were rumours of bed closures at the Scarborough Grace hospital several years ago, but those proved unfounded. Both Yee Hong and the Chinese Cultural Centre were expanded by the government.
4) The Markham by-election took place next door only a few months ago, and results in a status quo result. The Liberal candidate was reelected by a healthy margin. If the opposition can't topple the government candidate in a by-election, it is hard to predict there will be significant movement in a general vote in the neighbouring constituency.

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