Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Scarborough Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Scarborough Centre (87%)
Brad Duguid
Scarborough-Agincourt (13%)
Hon Gerry Phillips

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 30 MH
With the possible exception of Scarborough-Guildwood, the borough is now unpromising territory for any party but the Liberals. Mr. Duguid almost doubled the PC vote in 2003, and the NDP was and is nowhere in sight. He should return to Queen's Park without any difficulty.
07 09 28 Bluenoser
The Liberals have at least three times as many signs as the Tories in this riding. The NDP seem to be non existent here. The Tory candidate has absolutely no profile in the riding. Duguid is a former City Councillor and very well known with the electorate.
According to the 2001 census, visible minorities already are the majority in Scarborough.
This will be an easy Liberal win. Duguid may find himself in as a Cabinet Minister after this election.
07 09 27 Nick J Boragina
The last time this riding was a bellwether, it had a far different dynamic. Remember, that between 1955 and 1970 the population of Scarborough went from somewhere around 5,000 to somewhere near 200,000. Today it’s topping 600,000 and will probably hit 700,000 before the next redistribution. In the period where this was a bellwether, we saw mostly ‘white’ suburban families living here, with sprinklings of the so-called ‘established’ immigrants. That being those who had immigrated, but who have been here for long enough to get good jobs. Those immigrants have now left for places like Brampton and Ajax while new immigrants fresh to the country have taken, not only their place, but the place of many others. Scarborough will have so many Minorities that within 10 years they will form the Majority. These and other signs – such as polls predicting a Liberal Majority – say that this riding will be a clear Liberal Lock.
07 09 19 Bill S
Brad has demonstrated that he is someone to watch. Last election he was faced by a tough Conservative opponent in Marylin Mushinski and a backstabber in Costas Manios. Brad has systematically taken both of these people out of the equation. This is an easy one for him.
07 09 07 A.S.
Not only was this once a swing area, it was a PC/NDP (and Lib in '87)swing area, with NDP's David Warner winning and losing and winning and losing all over again, finally becoming Speaker until losing one last time...thus endeth the NDP, and with Duguid's '03 victory, it appeareth thus endeth the Tories as well. In fact, if you factor in a strong '03 independent run by '99 Liberal candidate Costas Manios, that added up to a 60% 'combined' Liberal vote! Not that Duguid will match that figure--the NDP, in particular, might be poised to (re)gain ground, if only because its earlier result was depressed by the Duguid/Manios squeeze play Then again, Duguid might. Duguid does good. He might even beat his northern neighbours in the ?best Liberal result in Scarborough? sweepstakes...
07 09 06 seamus
Duguid is an up-and-comer and outsider leadership contender, if McGuinty fails in this election. Duguid has the local appeal to transcend traditional voting tendencies. He beat Marilyn Mushinski in '03 quite handily and was one of Mel Lastman's most trusted Councillors. Duguid has performed well in the municipal file and should get a cabinet post, if the Liberals win - particularly if Toronto ministers lose (read Kathleen Wynne). Duguid gets a pass, allowing him to help Berardinetti in Scarborough Southwest.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Scarborough may have been once a swing area, but is now a Liberal bastion, so I expect the Liberals to hold this one.

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