Prediction Changed
1:04 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Toronto-Danforth (94.4%)
Peter Tabuns
Beaches-East York (5.6%)
Michael Prue

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 02 King of Kensington
I walked through the residential streets around Broadview and Danforth today and while Peter Tabuns was clearly in the lead, there was a visible Rowlands presence as well and the NDP lead in the sign war wasn't anywhere near 20:1. Although Tabuns will undoubtedly take the riding by a very wide margin it is quite the contrast from another very safe NDP seat (Trinity-Spadina) as at least the Liberals have some sort of active campaign!
07 10 01 BL
To suggest that the Liberals are in this race at all is laughable! Tabuns signs are everywhere, there are more Tabuns signs in the East York part of the riding than I have ever seen, and to think that because Joyce Rowlands now has a few signs up she is in the race defies belief. To date I have not received even one piece of Liberal literature but have had NDP leaflets and an NDP canvasser at my door, the Liberal campaign in Toronto-Danforth is almost non-existant. This is probably the most ‘NDP’ riding in the provice, if the Liberals get within 3500 votes of Tabuns I'd be shocked.
07 09 30 Riverdale resident
Any suggestion that the Libs have the faintest hope here is plain silly. Tabuns signs outnumber Rowlands signs by either 10:1 or 20:1, depending on which part of the riding you are in. PC and Green signs are few and far between.
Ben Chin in the by-election had the best possible chance for the Libs, with a very weak PC candidate, and still lost by 2,000+ votes. He obviously decided not to bother hitting his head against a brick wall again.
This constituency has the greatest concentration of NDP members in the country. And of course it is Jack Layton's riding federally!
The only question is the size of the majority - I will go for 5,000+.
07 09 29 JCM
This cold turn into a tight race by election day. Rowlands signs are popping up in areas once considered bastions of NDP support. The real estate market has changed the face of Riverdale and Leslieville and Tabuns has his detractors lingering from his municipal days. I would say this riding has to sit in the Too Close to Call column until after Thanksgiving.
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
Toronto Danforth is perhaps not the first riding you’d think about when you think NDP. Few tall apartment buildings, and most of the immigrants here are well established – the Greeks for example. The NDP benefits here from geography. Just as people who might vote NDP but live in places like New Brunswick vote Liberal, because that’s seen as more acceptable, voting NDP is seen as an acceptable thing to do in the old city of Toronto and in East York. The moderate local NDP brand will back a moderate or an extreme candidate. Having the federal leader in this riding does not hurt either, it gives the organization a great benefit. The NDP should be able to win again here.
07 09 22 MH
The Rowlands name will be worth some additional votes for the Liberals, but not nearly enough to beat a popular incumbent. Peter Tabuns should hold this without difficulty.
07 09 19 Danforther
Came home on Monday and there was Tabuns literature in the mailbox. Yesterday (Tuesday) got canvassed by a Tabuns volunteer. Nothing yet from any other party. So far, going down Coxwell (riding dividing line) south of Danforth, one sees a bunch of houses with Tabuns signs on the west side and Prue signs on the other side. The NDP are organized and out there. But while I like to think I pay pretty good attention to my local riding, I wasn't even aware until one poster informed us that June Rowlands' daughter was running against Tabuns. (Thanks for pointing that out, I might have missed it otherwise!) So much for the name recognition that brings. And what's the biggest thing that Torontonians remember Rowlands the Mayor for? Banning the Barenaked Ladies from doing a free municipal concert because of their name?? An obvious NDP hold. Liberal posters shouldn't delude themselves otherwise.
07 09 18 The Jackal
With this being parallel to the federal NDP leader's riding and on his name recognition Tabuns will coast to victory here.
07 09 15 Pete B.
A very safe NDP seat coupled with a very good and popular MPP and a decline in the Liberal vote - Tabuns in a landslide!
07 09 03 A.S.
Tabuns is facing a former mayor's daughter; but the name 'Rowlands' is incongruous in a seat like this (or is she just practice-running for a future North Toronto/North York bid, municipally, provincially, federally?). Like his predecessor Marilyn Churley, and unlike neighbour Michael Prue, Tabuns may be a little too NDP-stereotype for comfort in the East York part of the riding--but like Prue, the byelection race against a star media Liberal is practically all the 'race' he needs. And like Prue, expect some of that byelection Liberal vote to slide back t/w the Tories, making reelection easier still...
07 07 28 ML
Don't expect an NDP landslide, as there has always been a core Liberal base especially up in East York, but the incumbency factor and the always loud support from Riverdale and Leslieville should give Tabuns another win.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
One of the most NDP ridings in Toronto, so NDP holds this one regardless of whether their numbers hold or not.
07 03 22 B.O.
This is a very safe NDP seat, as the 2006 by-election demonstrates. The Liberals were unable to win the riding even with a star candidate. Tabuns will easily win this riding again.

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