Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Alberni-Pacific Rim

Prediction Changed
10:03 PM 02/03/2009

Constituency Profile

Fraser, Scott Kenneth
BC Refederation Party
Hills, Dallas Kenneth Jack
Green Party
Musgrave, Paul
St. Jacques, Dianne

(Approx. 99% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 07 cusap
Having just watched the all candidates forum in Port Alberni, I have to agree with rrand that Scott Fraser and Dianne St. Jacques are not in the same league. Fraser by far out-performed St. Jacques. He was fully informed on all the issues and was able to confidently articulate sensible positions on each, which, judging by the positive response of the crowd, appeared to be largely those favoured by attendees. Having to resort to speaking notes at times, St. Jacques was unable to match Fraser in most respects. While she appears to be a very nice and sincere person, St. Jacques has unfortunately associated herself with the BC Liberals, who's policies are very disliked in this area. Fraser should easily cruise to a well-earned victory on May 12 and would be prime Cabinet material if the NDP forms government.
09 04 20 rrand
I think that if people vote along partisan lines then it will be a close election. If the voters vote for the best candidate then Dianne St. Jacques will win easily. Her record and accomplishments as mayor of Ucluelet speak for themselves. She has lived in the area her whole life, knows the issues, and is well respected for her ability. Scott Fraser isn't in her league!
09 02 19 DL
I don't know why this is considered close at all. It went NDP by about 4,000 votes last time and some of the rightwing areas in Qualicum have been cut out through redistribution. This is one of the safest NDP seats in the whole province.
09 01 19 Burt R
Too little of Parksville and Qualicum are now included in this riding to make it competitive. Also it's mostly Qualicum, where the NDP have been improving over provincial and federal elections.
09 01 17 p. kelly
I think its pretty misleading to have this as called as 'too close'. In 2005, this seat was as close as it could possibly be. Liberal leaning voters in Qualicum Beach couldn't outnumber unionised workers and voters in Port Alberni and the west coast. 2005 was ideal for the Liberals with a relatively booming economy, but now we have a total collapse of forestry and painfully inadequate services for seniors and the sick (read: disillusioned voters in Qualicum). With cost over runs in the Olympics in the back of the minds of voters, this seat could deliver this seat with a heavy mandate for the NDP. Bottom line: NDP hold.
09 01 12 VanToria
Easy NDP hold. Scott Fraser is a popular MLA, he's been seen fighting for forestry workers in Port Alberni when Minister Coleman refused to even visit.

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