Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Comox Valley

Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

BC Refederation Party
Berard, Paula
People's Front
Biley, Barbara
Green Party
Lennox, Hazel
McNabb, Leslie
McRae, Don

Comox Valley
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 GMY
The polling over the past couple of days shows a very high level of support on Vancouver Island for the NDP, even more so north of Victoria. Also, with the untimely passing of popular Stan Hagen, there is no ?incumbent factor? this time around.
Time to move this one from Too Close to Call over to the NDP column.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
This was a very close one last time around, but the valley has changed quite a bit in the last four years. An influx of retiring Albertans has definitely tipped the scales against the NDP, and these older voters tend to turn out.
The community is a lot less forestry dependent than it once was and the NDP's anti-raw logs rhetoric is unlikely to connect as effectively as it will in a places like Port Alberni or Campbell River.
09 04 10 Poll Junkie
Comox Valley will be a very tight race - NDP has a real chance with Hagen gone, but I'm not ready to call it yet. The Green vote will make all the difference here and the BC NDP's disgraceful ?axe the tax? campaign will turn off the enviro voters who are concerned about climate change. My gut tells me the Libs will barely hang on due to the vote split on the left.
09 04 03 Laurence Putnam
An area hit hard by the global economy - the wealthy Albertans who had been migrating and buying up recreational property here are long gone.
Typically fertile ground for the NDP anyway - without Stan Hagen, this should be an easy pick-up for the NDP.
09 03 31 binriso
Im going to change to an outright NDP win here. With the popular and long serving incumbent gone, the tiny margin should evaporate to let the NDP win by about the same margin ~1000 votes or so.
09 03 02 p. kelly
Sympathy gets you only so far. I submit that Stan Hagen won this seat in 2005 due to his personal popularity - and it was a very narrow win too. But he isn't on the ballot this time, thanks to his sudden passing. The stars are aligned with the NDP this time and this swing seat is likely to drift to the NDP.
09 01 22 binriso
Lets not forget the margin was only 2% last time.
09 01 22 BJ
Stan Hagen has passed away (my condolences) and there is no longer an incumbent in this seat.
However, the Comox riding, in its various incarnations, has always tended centre-right with the combined vote (Social Credit + PC vote or Liberal + Reform vote). And the riding continues to trend to the centre-right in terms of demographics with the influx of Albertan retirees.
WestJet has two scheduled daily flights from Comox Airport to Calgary and one daily scheduled flight to Edmonton. In fact, Albertans were responsible for ~*25%* of real estate purchases in the Comox Valley in 2007.
The Green vote is also strong in this riding with the Greens likely taking 3 NDP votes for every 2 Liberal votes.
Taking into account those factors, unless the opinion polls slightly favour the NDP province-wide heading into May, 2009, this will continue to be a Liberal hold.
09 01 19 Burt R
Nothing will be left to chance in this riding, but with the economy going down and it being at the very top of the NDP's target list, I think Stan Hagen's days are numbered.
09 01 19 VanToria
TCTC for sure. Hagen only won in 2005 by 2% of the vote. In November, the Comox valley elected a new left leaning school board, turfing the old board based on concerns around school closures. The Liberals will wear the school closure issues. Plus, there has been concern about VIHA's decision-making around the location of a new hospital in the area. Can the NDP capitalize? It will definitely be one of their targeted ridings.

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