Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Cowichan Valley

Prediction Changed
11:43 AM 16/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Basskin, Cathy
Green Party
Lindley, Simon
BC Refederation Party
Moore, Michial Rupert
Murray, Stewart Jason
Routley, Bill

(Approx. 60% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Malahat-Juan de Fuca
(Approx. 40% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 mike
We may be looking at an upset here. The Green candidate has been pulling many votes away from the NDP. Some voters who previously leaned towards or voted for the NDP are jumping ship for two reasons. Either they like the Green candidate, or they don't like the NDP candidate whose narrow union focus prevents him from gaining votes outside of union members. I don't think he's getting all of those either, except maybe in the communities around Lake Cowichan.
09 05 06 RSquared
I think Routley turns off his base (unions) every time he speaks in public, that health care workers may be remembering that NDP have been awful for health care, and that Cathy Bassking is not an affable person. Simon Lindley seems to be developing some strong press, and may just be creating enough room to come up the middle!
09 04 25 Tide Waters
I think Bill Routley will get it, but it won't be as easy as the prediction suggests. There's been a lot of rumbling among usually intensely loyal NDP supporters about the nomination at which he was chosen candidate. Lots of unhappy Dippers, some of whom are openly supporting the likeable, well-respected Green candidate Simon Lindley. Basskin could come up the middle because of these tensions and Lindley end up with larger numbers than expected. If something comes up in the next two weeks to set the community on fire, then there's no telling what will happen. Routley can be a hothead and could lose it. However, in the end, there are a lot of unionists here. That could seal it, regardless of what anyone else thinks or how they vote.
09 02 10 TAN
In light of how the NDP incumbents have all shifted northwards with changing riding boundaries, this is the notionally ?new? riding on the Island added by the redistribution. Confusingly, the NDP have found another Routley--Bill Routley, no relation to Doug--who is also a unionized millworker type, and also looks pretty much set to become an NDP MLA. While I think Doug Routley will enjoy slightly stronger natural NDP numbers in the adjacent Nanaimo-North Cowichan seat, this is still a pretty orange neck of the woods. Mill Bay and Shawnigan migrate in from Malahat-Juan de Fuca and are a bit of a wildcard as they've been becoming trans-Malahat exurbs of Victoria in recent years--Victoria being Victoria, of course, that mightn't necessarily make them any less Dipper-inclined. The majority of the population is in Duncan, though, and there are no such vagaries about how those voters will swing. Two Cowichan Routleys comfortably in the leg. when the dust settles.

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