Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 19/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Abgrall, Ron
Polak, Mary
Stephany, Kathleen

(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

09 05 05 Lang
While Mary isn't a very strong MLA, she doesn't have much competition in Stephany. Kathleen is a polarizing figure, taking the Langley Township board to task for a proposed overpass. She will fire up the small NDP base in the riding, but has little to offer the undecideds.
09 03 31 Anon-y-mouse
Silent Mary has been a major disappointment for many in the area. Weakest Liberal seat in the Valley and could be an NDP breakthrough if the perfect storm occurs. Especially if an independent candidate comes forward.
09 02 27 MBD
On the increasing NDP strength here: What is happening in the Lower Mainland is young families are leaving the City of Vancouver and its inner suburbs for the bible belt. Its all about affordability. They will bring their centrist-to-left-wing views with them.
While my prediction is obviously Liberal this election, future elections could become competitive. Especially, if the BC Liberals keep running socially conservative candidates like Mary Polak.
09 02 24 binriso
Actually the NDP score surprisingly high in all of these bible-belt seats (surprisingly high being about half to two-thirds as much as the Liberals). They even had 35% here last time, but unless the NDP are headed for a huge majority the Liberals should win.
09 01 12 Predictor
Heart of bible belt. There is a better chance of some far-right fringe-party upset then this going to the NDP. Liberal hold.

Submit Information here

British Columbia Provincial Election 2009 - Main page - Lower Mainland Regional Index
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2009 - Email Webmaster