Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
8:57 PM 07/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Becker, Dirk
Krog, Leonard
Manhas, Jeet
BC Refederation Party
Shaw, Linden Robert

KROG, Leonard
(Approx. 55% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 45% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 03 24 Politico
Krog's relentless work on the BC Rail file and his long roots in this constituency give him the strong edge.
09 03 02 BJ
Nanaimo is a very interesting city in terms of its divergence of political views. South Nanaimo is bedrock NDP. North Nanaimo is bedrock Liberal.
After redistribution, a chunk of northern Nanaimo was placed into the Nanaimo seat. With 2005 votes transposed onto this riding the result would have been 45.4% to 42.5% in favour of the NDP in 2005. Just under 3%. And that's when the Liberals had a 4% winning margin province-wide in 2005.
If the recent Mustel poll, showing the Liberals substantially increasing that margin to 16% province wide holds up on election day, the Liberals will take the seat. But that's still the big if... The overall province-wide trends just prior to election day will determine the winner of this seat.
09 02 03 cm
With the riding redistricted to include more of North Nanaimo, it'll be much closer. Krog does have a better team on the ground, so I give him the edge.
09 01 19 Burt R
This is probably too close to call. Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog is running against former city councillor Jeet Manhas. Krog has a lot more name recognition and a fair bit of staying power. Manhas is a political lightweight. Still, the polls are a lot friendlier to the Liberals. I definitely give the edge to Krog on name recognition and what will probably be a very aggressive ground game.
09 01 17 p. kelly
Had this been 2001 or even 2005, this might be close. But Leonard Krog is a more than capable MLA, and he is facing an unpopular Liberal party MLA. The seat re-distribution makes this a swing seat, but the NDP have the advantage here and should take it by a comfortable margin. The southern edge of the riding HATE the BC Liberals, and the areas that might normally be tempted to the BC Liberals are also annoyed with their party. NDP hold.

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