Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Nanaimo-North Cowichan

Prediction Changed
10:05 PM 18/01/2009

Constituency Profile

BC Refederation Party
Fuson, Ronald James
Green Party
Gartshore, Ian Elliott
Hutchins, Rob
Routley, Doug

KROG, Leonard
(Approx. 55% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 45% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 mike
I think that because Rob Hutchins is so well known locally, voters will take the choice of voting for the person over party preferences. You just have to look and see what he has done for Ladysmith while he has been Mayor of that town...
09 04 23 wark123
This will be a Close call, statistics are not in Favour for the BC Liberal Candidate, however, Doug Routley is hardly ever showing representation in the riding.
With an ex-NDP candidate running and a mayor of ladysmith for 15 years, Rob has a good chance. He is well respected in Ladysmith and throughout the school district. They will see a large shift in votes here, people are torn between parties and people.
09 04 23 Laurence Putnam
Opportunistic turncoats are rarely successful unless they have such gravitas as to be recognized by their first name alone. Think ?Ujjal? or ?Belinda? or ?Garth?. Those people can pull it off. This BC Liberal candidate will not.
09 04 11 binriso
Even if that poll that had the Liberals up 16 or 17% held true, the NDP would still hold this seat. Taking into account the elections going to be much closer means this is a definite NDP hold.
09 03 24 Politico
Stronghold for NDP but a well respected NDP'r is running for the Libs.
Expect an upset here in favour of the governing Libs.
09 02 22 NaNaTrish
The Liberal candidate's credibility is in question. He was an NDP candidate in the 2001 election and member of that party until just a few weeks before he announced he was running for the Liberal nomination.
Doug Routley is a popular MLA who has earned a lot of support and has a reputation for standing up for his constituents.
09 01 19 Burt R
This is a lock for the NDP. It includes the NDP heavy South Nanaimo and Ladysmith polls.
09 01 17 p. kelly
This is probably the safest seat on the Island. The seat redistribution puts the south end of Nanaimo into the seat that hold most of the Cowichan Valley and are some the most loyal NDP areas on the Island. Look for a NDP win that approaches 60% here.

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