Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:23 PM 19/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Duncan, David
Green Party
Kubara, Sean McGeorge
Mungall, Michelle
Smienk, Josh

EVANS, Corky
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 04 Jeff
Following the departure of the long-serving popular incumbent Corky Evans, the riding could be considered up for grabs. It has a So-Cred history, and was taken by the 2001 Liberal near-sweep, although we should just throw that one out the window for now.
Michelle Mungall is very strong in Nelson, but Josh Smienk should wrap up the eastern portion of the riding, which is much more right-leaning. This could be closer than many think, but the incredibly leftist Nelson combined with a half-decent showing for Mungall in Creston and the rural areas should make it an NDP hold.
09 05 01 Bill T
I live in Creston and have been a long time Corky supporter despite his party affiliation. I do believe a lot of supporters in the southern portion of the riding were much like me, supporting the man not the party. In addition the NDP's decision to only allow women to run for this nomination angered a number of past supporters for its undemocratic and sexist approach. Corky's previous wins were very much a result of who he is as an individual and did not reflect the NDP's position. As a result I expect a comfortable Liberal win in this riding. If you look at previous elections it was the southern portion of the riding, the more right wing area that gave Corky his wins.
I dont think people appreciate the impact that the loss of the Slocan valley will have to this riding. It is the home of Corky and a heavy NDP area of support. The south of the riding is very heavily small C conservative and the influx of albertans to the riding has made a serious difference.
09 04 22 Laurence Putnam
I do think the past results here were really more of a ?Corky? result than an ?NDP? result - but even without him, I don't see this seat going back to the Liberals under Campbell.
09 04 05 binriso
Plus it was some sort of ungodly high victory by the NDP last time, I think they were at 61%.
09 04 01 Markd
The NDP has a strong candidate in Michelle Mungall, a former Nelson city councillor and active community leader. Although Josh Smienk is a formidable opponent I don't think he will be able to energize or excite voters like Michelle certainly will. I predict an NDP win.
09 01 19 Burt R
Corky Evans' coat-tails + the strong list of challengers that contested the nomination + a vibrant NDP riding association = NDP hold.

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