Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:22 PM 19/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Cantelon, Ron
Green Party
Osborne, Wayne
BC Refederation Party
Ryder, Bruce
Salter, Leanne

(Approx. 75% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 25% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 07 Wayne Osborne
Liberals took 52% of the vote and NDP took 38% of the vote in the last election. The NDP candidate this time around is a soft candidate who has declared that she is only running because nobody else was willing to throw their hat in the ring. Nobody expects her to beat Cantalon. Therefore, the prediction of a Liberal win makes intuitive sense.
However, two factors are not being accounted for in the prediction. The voters in this riding are absolutely livid with the Liberals and none more-so than Cantalon. That salesman standing and justifying the destruction (logging) of the community's watershed is not going over well. Neither was him being outed for lying twice over the situation. To make matters worse, the local voters are well informed of the party's financial connection to Timberwest.
The second factor is a Green Party Candidate who is more than capable of taking the Agriculture minister to task for the mismanagement of his portfolio. A candidate that is strong, confident, and innovative. A candidate that is a farmer and firefighter, two of the most trusted professions in BC.
Two factors are emerging as big issues in this riding, in addition to the mandate of getting rid of the Salesman. First is food security. Second is electing a candidate that is capable and willing to represent the riding. Primary health care is also a biggie, but it has been made painfully obvious that not even a star candidate can bring the facility to the riding. It awaits the approval of the Health Minister.
09 03 22 p. kelly
Predictions of a Liberal easy ride are a little premature here. Fixed income pensioneers and the retired living on 'investment' income have been affected by the recent economic collapse, plus the cutbacks that have affected seniors health issues. The BC Liberals have a weakness on their right flank, and they need to fear the BC Conservatives. The BC Liberals have been spending and governing like dunken socialists and veteran voters in Qualicum have noticed. The NDP has a bigger chance than you might think here.
09 01 19 Burt R
The NDP is going to run a very strong candidate here and the new riding association is a lot stronger than the one that preceded it. That being said, the polls are much more friendly to the Liberals (paralleling high property values) and Ron Cantelon has name recognition as the current MLA for much of this riding. Clearly, an NDP win would be something of a minor upset. What remains to be seen is whether or not voters will punish this resident (Cantelon) and former city councillor for the city of Nanaimo for taking the easy out and running in Parksville Qualicum (instead of in Nanaimo against the NDP's Leonard Krog) and whether Cantelon will put out a real campaign effort or be overconfident. Issues may again resurface about Cantelon registering as a real estate agent before leaving Nanaimo City Council or some other conflict of interest brouhaha.

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