Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Peace River South

Prediction Changed
9:26 PM 10/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Fraser, Grant
Lekstrom, Blair Morgan
Shaw, Pat
Young, Donna

Peace River South
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 09 onwiththeshow
The Advance Polls are the highest they have ever been in the Peace Riding. Pat Shaw is raising all the right issues: Oil & Gas Company pollution, flaring of gas in developing the fields, tutition increases, Independant Power Producers and the run on the rivers. Site C Dam is part of the debate on the street. Lekstrom is defensive and has even told ?delegations? visiting Liberal's and the NDP's office it is 50/50 this time around. Chetwynd is harmed by raw log exports and mills and mine closures. Chetwynd is going NDP. Dawson Creek is the bed rock of Liberal support and actually decides the election. Many Liberal's are not voting this time around. It might be closer than many think.
09 04 20 Laurence Putnam
This was a bedrock Social Credit riding - it was even one of the seven Socred survivors of the 1991 election. In 1996, it was a Reform BC riding. By 2001, the moribund Social Credit party mustered 17% of the vote here when they ran just two candidates! That should tell you the whole story. Unless a new right wing party comes to life and nominates either Jack Weisgerber or Jesus himself as its candidate here, this is safe, safe, safe Liberal territory.
09 03 05 binriso
Voter turnout is quite low here and so is the population compared to most other ridings. In the not too distant future rural ridings like this will probably be trimmed down and merged into eachother and lose their importance. Of course in Reform Party country the BC LIBS almost cant lose.
09 02 10 TAN
It bears remembering this seat, along with its neighbour to the north and a handful of other pockets of Ted Nugent conservatism across the province, was with Rita Johnson's Socreds right to the bitter end in the 1991 election. After all, the only feature that separates it from Alberta is an imaginary line running along a line of longitude and PST. Anger over carbon taxes might nibble into Lekstrom's whopping majority from last time, but with no viable destination for the protest vote to go (What, vote for the NDP? Them's crazy talk.) the seat safer than safe.
09 01 23 Flashman
With almost double the level of support the NDP received in 2005 in this riding, the BC Liberals are essentially guaranteed to hold this riding since it hasn't been altered via the redistricting.

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