Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Port Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
9:24 PM 19/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Bertsch, Cole
Dahlby, Lewis Clarke
Farnworth, Mike
Hiller, Bernie Christoph
Your Political Party
Williams, Brent

Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 04 Hamish
The NDP will hold this one.
Much has been said about the suburbs being ?battleground? ridings, especially given that neither provincial leader has been able to connect with the public. Still and all, I call this one NDP. Mike Farnworth has been probably the NDP's strongest performer and may be better known than the NDP leader. And though it was a competitive riding last time when Greg Moore was the candidate, Bernie Hiller is a very week candidate. I just returned from the all-candidates meeting where Hiller performed terribly, even at one point drawing laughter from the crowd (at him, not with him). Frankly, the Green Party candidate was more knowledgeable on the issues and a better speaker than Hiller.
09 04 14 Reagan New Democrat
Farnworth will win and heck, I know many Conservatives who will vote for him (for Mike, not the NDP). I will vote for him myself, though I''ve never been thrilled with the NDP nor am I that fond of Carole James. Mike has been an outspoken critic of the present government on crime, which is a big issue in PoCo. Not only that, but he has been one of the few opposition members that most people would agree has actually been effective.
The fact that the Liberals didn't nominate their candidate until a week before the writ drop shows they don't hold out a lot of hope for this riding.
09 02 10 Predictian
Mike Farnworth by a country mile. He is on Global TV every night and in the Vancouver Province and Sun every day. His performance as Justice Critic has been legendary. With gang violence out of control in the Lower Mainland, and the issue of crime rising as one of ?the? issues in the election, Farnworth has single handedly put the Liberals on the ropes over this issue. Who woulda thunk that the NDP would be viewed as tougher on crime and more law-and-order than the Liberals? Well, they are...and it's because of Farnworth. If the NDP don't form government this time around, Farnworth is the one who could lead them to it in 2013.
09 02 01 smart voter
As one of the highest profile members of the opposition and one of its most effective, Farnworth wins this seat no problem. He as established a strong reputation on public safety law and order issues that is popular with the public.
09 01 31 Laurence Putnam
I know federal Tories that support Mike Farnworth. His 2001 defeat (still outperformed the party's provincial average by a country mile) was the aberration of his career. He's back for sure, and is one of those New Dems who many would agree we are well-served by for his presence in the Legislature.
Farnworth cruises to victory and is so safe that he probably spends much of the campaign assisting candidates in neighbouring ridings.
09 01 18 Prediction King
Farnworth should hold this seat handily, most likely increasing his margin from 2005. He is one of the highest-profile MLAs in the province. He has a lot of crossover appeal and is a populist politician.
Also, redistribution has removed a wealthy, newly developed area from the Port Coquitlam constituency.
09 01 15 Lynda Clarke
Port Coquitlam is my home riding. There are several reasons why I think the NDP will handily win this seat.
1) Mike Farnworth has been one of the most high-profile MLAs in either party. He appears more often on the TV, radio and newspapers than Carole James it seems. He is also a superb constituency MLA and has jumped on local issues in Port Coquitlam. I would also say that as the NDP's critic on crime/public safety, he has been far more law-and-order than Liberal Attorney General Wally Oppal. He's populist, high-profile, moderate and well-liked.
2) The riding has been redistributed and no longer has Burke Mountain in it. This is a major coup for the NDP, as Burke Mountain includes the very wealthy area. What's left is just the city of Port Coquitlam, a traditional NDP area of strength.
3) While no liberal candidate has come forward yet, it appears the party will not have a candidate of any profile or stature.

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