Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Prediction Changed
11:43 AM 16/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Chilton, Jeff
BC Refederation Party
McIntyre, Allen
Miller, Dawn
Simons, Nicholas

SIMONS, Nicholas
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 20 Laurence Putnam
The NDP must be thinking: ?Finally!?
This seat went with the 1986 Vander Zalm Social Credit tsunami, then was held by maverick Gordon Wilson first as a Liberal, then as a ?Progressive Democrat? and only upon Wilson's second defection did it return to the NDP in 1997. Hit again by the Liberal tsunami in 2001, the NDP won it back in 2005 but only after staring down both the Liberals and the Green Leader.
At long last, what by almost every measure should be considered fertile NDP territory, is safe. The NDP will not have had so little work to do on this riding since 1983!
09 04 10 Coaster
The Libs have offered up a coffee party grandma who has yet to say the word ?environment? The Greens locally are saying they don't want to run a candidate... Simons has been a strong advocate for environmental stewardship.
If a Green does run, won't likely hit the double digits in Adriane Carr's home constituency.
09 02 14 TAN
The exorcism of Adrianne Carr from the electoral picture has to relieve New Democrats on the Sunshine Coast. It's a given that the Green vote will sag here versus their 2005 numbers (themselves disappointingly low, at only 26%). This remains naturally greenish political turf so expect whoever fills Carr's shoes to still turn in a respectable double-digit performance.
With at best maybe 15% of the votes up for grabs for the two main parties, then, even if the BC Liberals were to find a cuddly red-green eco-entrepreneur sort to run as their candidate, they'd need to vacuum up something like 4 Green votes for every 1 that leaks to the NDP to be in contention. And that strikes me as beyond the realm of possibility. Simons to hold, with an increased majority.

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