Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Saanich North and the Islands

Prediction Changed
9:21 PM 19/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Bradfield, Tom
Coell, Murray Robert
Holman, Gary

COELL, Murray
Saanich North and the Islands
(Approx. 99% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 lands end
The NDP will surge ahead in the last days because as indicated by the advance voter turnout (noted to be up by 50%), could be reflective of the time available by the many ?terminated? workers. Those voters often lean towards replacing the current government.
09 05 08 Rupert Downing
Living in this riding I think there is a swing to the NDP that threatens Coell. Private lawn signs are about 4 to 1 for NDP and in my area (North Saanich) the municipal election saw a swing to green - centre left with one of the highest participation rates in BC. The NDP candidate lives on Salt Spring and has a big Island support base, First Nations communities (large reserves on peninsula) are active in supporting NDP. I think this is too close to call.
09 04 27 RetroRyan
This riding will stay with Murray Coell, given that the Greens and NDP will split the left wing votes. However, it won't be a very strong win for Coell, especially if voter turnout is weak. I sense that the NDP supporters in this riding will be more motivated to vote this year.
09 01 19 Burt R
This one totally depends on what happens to the Green vote. Ex ante though, you have to assume that not enough votes will swing to the NDP and thus it is Murray Coell on the winner's podium yet again.

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