Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Saanich South

Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Adair, Robin
Western Canada Concept
Christie, Douglas
Green Party
Gordon, Brian Geoffrey
Popham, Lana

Saanich South
(Approx. 90% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Oak Bay-Gordon Head
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 09 Robert
The new riding of Saanich South (after the redistribution) would go BC Liberal if everyone voted the same as in 2005. The Popham (Pop-ham?) campaign is short on volunteers. When I voted at the advance poll, it was clear that the NDP did not have enough scrutineers to manage the whole thing. A lack of volunteers shows a thin organization, and in a tight race, it's all about turnout.
The BC Liberal candidate has name recognition, whereas the NDP candidate came 14th in the last municipal election.
Also, people aren't as ?mad? as they were in 2005. Without incumbency on either side, it could be very close. Ultimately though, with the latest poll from Ipsos showing the BC Liberals ahead provincially by 8 points, the new Saanich South should swing back to the BC Liberal column.
09 04 28 Mike
In 2005, the NDP won the riding with moderate environmental candidate David Cubberley. The Greens strategically waited until the deadline to nominate a token opponent, who garnered the lowest number of votes of any Green candidate in the capital region. And still, the NDP only won by 1% against a fairly unpopular MLA.
This time, the incumbent isn?t running again. The riding is redistributed in favor of the Liberals, who are well ahead in the polls. The NDP lost the support of several environmental groups early in the campaign. The Greens are running Brian Gordon, who ran federally in 2008 in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, which includes many of the NDP-leaning polls in Saanich South.
While the NDP have nominated another environmental candidate, they are unlikely to hold the riding. Many environmentally-concerned voters who voted for Cubberley will abandon the NDP and vote for the stronger Green candidate, or even BC Liberal this time.
This all spells a BC Liberal pickup.
09 04 17 Tyler Durden
The BC Liberals should be able to pick up this riding. The NDP have list the advantage of incumbency and the BC Libs have nominated a strong candidate with very good name recognition.
This was a very close race last time and it was only some late polls on the west side of the riding that tipped it the NDP favor. Many of these polls were redistributed and this will hurt the NDPs chances.
Many people in (well to do) Broadmead and Cordova were horrified when they woke up the day after the election to find out that they are now represented by an NDP MLA. These folks should be motivated to volunteer, give money and ensure the vote gets out.
BC Liberals shoudl win this one by 2000 votes
09 04 10 Poll Junkie
Lana Popham is a strong NDP candidate with a local green/agriculture base in the riding. Robin Adair is a classic Victoria Chamber of Commerce stuffed shirt with no connection to the riding. Popham will hang on to this riding as she has the local appeal and enviro cred to stem vote splitting with the Greens.
09 01 22 BJ
David Cubberly was a moderate likeable guy but has stepped down and therefore the NDP won't have any incumbency bounce. That said, this riding has always one of the, if no the, closest races on VI. Out of 27,798 votes cast in 2005, the NDP won by a margin of 429 votes over the Liberal incumbent.
With redistribution, the NDP loses alot of NDP heavy polls in Tillicum. IMHO, if the final opinion polls show the Liberals with a province wide lead in excess of 5% they will take it and vice versa.
09 01 19 Burt R
This riding starts out TCTC, but I suspect it will stay NDP. It will be at the top of both parties target lists, but the redistributed demographics/property values still give the NDP the edge. They will also get a mild incumbency boost as Cubberley is/was a popular MLA.

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