Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:29 PM 10/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Falcon, Kevin
Payment, Deborah
Green Party
Purton, Kevin

(Approx. 99% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 03 22 p. kelly
Not so fast with the easy predictions about Kevin's re-election here. Kevin has a profile that is as politically explosive as Campbell's. He's made every effort to be a front bench cabinet minister and align himself to Campbell's policy almost to a 't'. But, the BC Liberals are hated. Kevin's pet project, the Port Mann expansion is a supreme failure...the egg on his face over this screw up could be just enough to make the seat competitive...but there is another threat brewing for him...the BC Conservative Party. Cloverdale, being on the western edge of the Fraser Valley's 'bible belt' has noticed how far to the left (relatively speaking of course) the BC Liberals have drifted...so the Values voters are looking for a new home, and I suspect the BC Cons. will welcome them with open arms.
09 02 10 TAN
Rich Coleman and Colin Hansen might have something to say about smart voter's prediction of who will win the BC Liberal leadership after Gordo, but I don't think anyone could disagree with his/her prediction of who will win Cloverdale. Much as every bikes-and-buses sort in downtown Vancouver would love to see Falcon go down, unless 10,000 of them plan to move out here it just can't happen.
09 02 01 smart voter
no contest, high profile transportation minister and next bc liberal leader kevin falcon takes this in a cake walk
09 01 31 Laurence Putnam
This guy is one of the contenders for the next Liberal leadership whenever that happens (sometime between now and 2013). That race might be a fight, but the race in Surrey-Cloverdale sure isn't.

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